PhineasC Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 boundary issues aaaagain anyway, here's 42 hr surface I'm done after this one http://mag.ncep.noaa..._wnd_precip.gif There are always boundary issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 No mitch, not a lot of boundary issues to be honest, I'd expect soundings to be fine, BL temps like 33 and decent 850's will overcome that. Snow similar to what we saw yesterday, will probably evap cool to 32, hard to have a model show that. I'd like some heavy precip to dynamically cool us a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 There are always boundary issues. only post 09/10 it seems I've never seen so many storms after that winter that were plenty cold at 850 only to roast near the ground anyway, here's 45 hrs, the freezing line keeps creeping north http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/nam/00/nam_namer_045_10m_wnd_precip.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Freezing line at 950 is around DC. I'm comfortable with that, especially with the start time so early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 it's ova' at 48 hrs http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/nam/00/nam_namer_048_10m_wnd_precip.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 The light to moderate snow yesterday coated the roads just fine. Are we expecting vastly different temps from this one across the region? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 total qpf http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/nam/00/nam_namer_051_precip_p48.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 NAM clown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 The NAM looks pretty good. A lot like the 18z gfs. I will check soundings soon. it's encouraging because it was way too warm for yesterday's storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Not bad on the NAM, not bad at all. Doubt the temps will creep up like that if we have solid snow in here like that and then all of a sudden as we get to 8 or 9 am temps go up during moderate snows. Verbatim a nice run, if soundings matt checks cooperate, I'd guess 2-3" Baltimore, Phin would get 4, down in Old Town, matt gets 1-2. Going to check clowns lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 .3-.4 in area wide except around Baltimore and to the N and E where it's .4-.5 in of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 it's encouraging because it was way too warm for yesterday's storm Yes, clowns give us 1-2 but I definitely think it is too warm for sure, the algorithms obviously are messing with the snow totals, even you should get 2" on this run with gfs-esque temps. Excited for the GFS to be honest, hope it can continue the trend of 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 NAM clown If you look at that map at 6 hours it looks virtually the same as it does then. That's a snow on the ground map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 The NAM looks pretty good. A lot like the 18z gfs. I will check soundings soon. Warm nose at 875 or so by 15z. Warm below 850 by 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 If you look at that map at 6 hours it looks virtually the same as it does then. That's a snow on the ground map. Yes, so clownish it is not even worthy of looking at. I would use soundings, climo, and H5 to make sense of this. Bob chill and matt do it, and they know whats up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 can we get a real fooking snowstorm please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I don't know if I'm looking at the wrong maps or what, but the NAM seems to be slightly drier area wide than it was at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 If you look at that map at 6 hours it looks virtually the same as it does then. That's a snow on the ground map. yes, for places out west where you are but when you go back earlier, say at 24 hrs, there's nothing around DCA/BWI I agree, it is misleading for places that already have snow in that it's harder to figure what falls from this event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I don't know if I'm looking at the wrong maps or what, but the NAM seems to be slightly drier area wide than it was at 12z. Essentially the same, .3-.4 Baltimore, a bit less to the W, but a comeback from 18z which was less, so thats a good sign. The vort looks solid, and up to 36 it looked really nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I don't know if I'm looking at the wrong maps or what, but the NAM seems to be slightly drier area wide than it was at 12z. Probably about time for you guys to start getting fringed again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I don't know if I'm looking at the wrong maps or what, but the NAM seems to be slightly drier area wide than it was at 12z. its drier by about .10 in Loudoun County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Probably about time for you guys to start getting fringed again. Seems a lot like the Christmas eve system, but now I can't remember how it was modeled except I think it trended wetter as we got closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 its drier by about .10 in Loudoun County pretty much within the margin of error there's not much difference at 500 compared to 18z .. not the best pass for DC still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 its drier by about .10 in Loudoun County .31 at jyo that's more than 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 NAM printout for BWI definitely warming by 42 hrs, maybe still snow, but wet http://68.226.77.253...km/NAM_Kbwi.txt IAD http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kiad.txt DCA http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kdca.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 18z had .26 at jyo.....ji lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 21Z SREFs were good too. A little wetter than previous, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 21Z SREFs were good too. A little wetter than previous, I think. SREF's were a bit better, and the NAM at MTN looks mainly snow for our crowd (.37 QPF) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 21Z SREFs were good too. A little wetter than previous, I think. NAM mtn http://68.226.77.253/text/NAM80km/NAM_Kmtn.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 NAM clown ugh.. What's .1 divided by 5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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