Deck Pic Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 the 1st is a possibility too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Ellinwood's first call. Going more bearish for now... could definitely see myself pulling the southern edge further south if the surface temps look like they'll cooperate. http://www.americanw...-28-29-initial/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Ellinwood's first call. It's going to snow in DC. People need to stop fretting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 HPC look bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Ellinwood's first call. I think he'll end up needing to pull that southern edge south, but it sounds like he's already prepared to do that anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Afternoon models go to crap but snow chances get bullish.....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Afternoon models go to crap but snow chances get bullish.....lol ? 18z GFS got better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Afternoon models go to crap but snow chances get bullish.....lol Professionals? Maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Afternoon models go to crap but snow chances get bullish.....lol Maybe they're not hugging? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 ? 18z GFS got better 12z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoVaWx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Ellinwood's first call. Really a winter where Winchester/I-81 seems to be cashing in - even with this one. Hasn't happened in several years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Really a winter where Winchester/I-81 seems to be cashing in - even with this one. Hasn't happened in several years. Can't call the whole winter, but this has been a helluva week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I guess they think the models might be too far east or too weak. I have no idea if that is true from a meteorological perspective, but I do know that the models have pulled this act many, many times only to tug back west a little at 36 hours out. The trouble is you need the southern low to deepen without the northern one doing it. The 18Z GFS actually has the northern low a little stronger which is OK for Winchester and out that way but for the dc contingent is still not good. I noticed that the 18Z GFS NCEP ptype algorithms have rain over dc rather than snow. To me the sounding looks more like snow than rain at onset but by 15 gets the surface temp to 35 so while being above freezing to 925 mb. You might argue that the models were colder than forecast with the last system but it had a CAD signature, this one doesn't. DC can get screwed two ways, a weak low with only light precipitation rates that don't produce rates that will give any real accumulations or having more precip but with the stupid northern low being too strong too long and then having the boundary layer end up a too warm. The guys out towards IAD and will probably do OK but could get screwed by a 12Z euro solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 This storm is all over the map Bullish DT LC HPC NAM Bearish CWG Wes Sterling Me Euro GFS Unclear Ian (you a bear or a bull?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 This storm is all over the map Bullish DT LC HPC NAM Bearish CWG Wes Sterling Me Euro GFS Unclear Ian (you a bear or a bull?) Add UKMET and RGEM to the Bulls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Add UKMET and RGEM to the Bulls. Has the RGEM ever not been bullish? It pastes us like 99% of the time. Mitchnick has been addicted to it for as long as I have known him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 This storm is all over the map Bearish Sterling I don't think there snowfall map is technically official, but it looked fairly bullish to me with 1-2" for DC. I'm definitely surprised with the high probs of 4"+ from HPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Has the RGEM ever not been bullish? It pastes us like 99% of the time. Mitchnick has been addicted to it for as long as I have known him. He does love it, and its usually warm. Chilly now, and temps might mean a lot south of Baltimore and even the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 This storm is all over the map Bullish DT LC HPC NAM Bearish CWG Wes Sterling Me Euro GFS Unclear Ian (you a bear or a bull?) I think the guys out towards Leesburg and Winterwxluver could do OK. I wouldn't be surprised if they got 2-4 especially out towards Winchester. I just think for points inside the beltway and aroun dwe have so may way to get screwed and only one way to have our chances increase. Plus for us, I just don't like lows north and west of us even with another low coming across the south unless the latter is a really potent one. It's a pathological aversion born of too many disappointments over the years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 14th call Wes- 1 mangled flake Me/Andy- T Ian/Randy- 0.5" Bob chill 1" Clsknsfan and winterwxluvr- 4" Trixie wvclimo 4" Boyce va 5" hardy wv. Above the boulder Psuhoffman and Phineas 3" Ddweather 1" Mini wheat NW Balt Balt zen 2.5" Mitchnick sleet Leesburg ji dave 12-16" Jon Jon 36-48" nws pit calls for flurries. Nothing seen on radar. Bed breakfast double cost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 14th call Wes- 1 mangled flake Me/Andy- T Ian/Randy- 0.5" Bob chill 1" Clsknsfan and winterwxluvr- 4" Trixie wvclimo 4" Boyce va 5" hardy wv. Above the boulder Psuhoffman and Phineas 3" Ddweather 1" Mini wheat NW Balt Balt zen 2.5" Mitchnick sleet Leesburg ji dave 12-16" Jon Jon 36-48" nws pit calls for flurries. Nothing seen on radar. Bed breakfast double cost. can you be more specific? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Add Justin Berk to bullish, has entire region DC and N and W 3" +, SE MD at 2"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 This storm is all over the mapBullish DT LC HPC NAM Bearish CWG Wes Sterling Me Euro GFS Unclear Ian (you a bear or a bull?) DT is in the "my map doesn't make any sense, but let's pretend anyway" camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I'll take 2.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I'm in the make a call without making a call camp. I think people will trend snowier. But I've only seen a little guidance compared to the rest of you loons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Generally people are afraid to forecast snow for DC until its staring them in the face. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Wes- 1 mangled flake Me/Andy- T Ian/Randy- 0.5" Bob chill 1" Clsknsfan and winterwxluvr- 4" Trixie wvclimo 4" Boyce va 5" hardy wv. Above the boulder Psuhoffman and Phineas 3" Ddweather 1" Mini wheat NW Balt Balt zen 2.5" Mitchnick sleet Leesburg ji dave 12-16" Jon Jon 36-48" nws pit calls for flurries. Nothing seen on radar. Bed breakfast double cost. 9th Final almost final call Wes- T Matt/Andy- .2" Ian/Randy- 1" Bob chill 1.5" Clsknsfan and winterwxluvr- 4" Trixie wvclimo 3.5" Boyce va 5" hardy wv. Above the boulder Psuhoffman 4" and Phineas 3" Me (according to Easternuswx): 2.5" Mini wheat NW Balt Balt zen 3" Mitchnick 1" Leesburg ji dave 3.5 (Ji measures 9" though) Jon Jon 36-48" nws pit calls for flurries. Nothing seen on radar. Bed breakfast double cost. This is perfect, cannot have made a better forecast. I commend you on this! Let's not forget that guy in SE VA that really wants snow: No, move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Add me to bullish, I'm going with a 2"-4" close in suburbs and places west of there, maybe 6" out towards Winchester. Up to 2" in the city and lesser amounts from there south and east. I'd post a map but I'm on my phone now and I don't have it on there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benchmark Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 FWIW Can someone post the link to the website that has these graphs. I searched Iowa state but gave up... Thanks!... its the graph that shows all the models in a line graph... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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