Kmlwx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Sure. Tho I'm not sure HPC is that bullish. I think a lot of people misinterpret seeing the blue line on the HPC snow prob maps as saying "good chance you'll get that." I think HPC is probably right where they should be right now. The blue line indicates a 10% chance of exceeding the amount indicated. That's not that high of a chance. Even the green indicates just 40%. Probability forecasting does not jive with many people (I guess same effect that we have when the public sees 45% on the SPC map and assumes it's not a good chance). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Generally people are afraid to forecast snow for DC until its staring them in the face. I bet everyone will be really shocked when 00Z tomorrow shows 4-6 across the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I think a lot of people misinterpret seeing the blue line on the HPC snow prob maps as saying "good chance you'll get that." I think HPC is probably right where they should be right now. The blue line indicates a 10% chance of exceeding the amount indicated. That's not that high of a chance. Even the green indicates just 40%. Probability forecasting does not jive with many people (I guess same effect that we have when the public sees 45% on the SPC map and assumes it's not a good chance). That's because it is essentially a non-forecast. No matter what happens HPC verifies. That's OK as they are supposed to just be guidance for the NWS offices. But when supposed "forecasters" use such probabilities you just have to laugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I think a lot of people misinterpret seeing the blue line on the HPC snow prob maps as saying "good chance you'll get that." I think HPC is probably right where they should be right now. The blue line indicates a 10% chance of exceeding the amount indicated. That's not that high of a chance. Even the green indicates just 40%. Probability forecasting does not jive with many people (I guess same effect that we have when the public sees 45% on the SPC map and assumes it's not a good chance). Yeah those are essentially switched, I know what it means, but I mean their surface map is still bullish, Berk is actually one of the most bullish, along with DT, but he's on another planet so he doesn't really even count. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 That's because it is essentially a non-forecast. No matter what happens HPC verifies. That's OK as they are supposed to just be guidance for the NWS offices. But when supposed "forecasters" use such probabilities you just have to laugh. Agree with you there. Though with the massive public rush to be weather enthusiasts in the past years, the HPC maps are finding their way to the public via Facebook and Twitter. Then the public interprets it whatever way they want to. Though it's probably a discussion for another thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I think a lot of people misinterpret seeing the blue line on the HPC snow prob maps as saying "good chance you'll get that." I think HPC is probably right where they should be right now. The blue line indicates a 10% chance of exceeding the amount indicated. That's not that high of a chance. Even the green indicates just 40%. Probability forecasting does not jive with many people (I guess same effect that we have when the public sees 45% on the SPC map and assumes it's not a good chance). True. However, you have to consider that it is a probability forecast for 4"+. I haven't looked but their probability forecasts for many of at least two are probably considerably higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I bet everyone will be really shocked when 00Z tomorrow shows 4-6 across the area. Well like I said I really haven't looked at much the last few days so I dunno exactly what the upside is.. Seems less than that for me at least and most of my comments are DC centric as I really don't care if people who already saw snow get 3 or 5 inches more. I have to edit tonight for the forecast tomorrow so ill l Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I bet everyone will be really shocked when 00Z tomorrow shows 4-6 across the area. Well like I said I really haven't looked at much the last few days so I dunno exactly what the upside is.. Seems less than that for me at least and most of my comments are DC centric as I really don't care if people who already saw snow get 3 or 5 inches more. I have to edit tonight for the forecast tomorrow so ill look things over more soon. If nothing else there seems to have been a general warm bias the last two events until they were underway.. Tho I do think the mild forecast for the cities ended up largely correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I'm more bullish than Wes would want me to be but more bearish than DT doesn't want to be but hpc has it wrong because I'm thinking 12-13% with lollies to 24%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brad1551 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Looks like 1-3" for most of the northern Va area and DC as well. The way the models have been it would not surprise me tomorrow that they all go warm and we have a cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 It took all winter last year to have this much discussion about snow........and we are still in December. That's a win for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 we should dump the models and just go by water vapor loops and Intellicast radar trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I think this is pretty good so far (21 hrs NAM) http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/nam/00/nam_namer_021_500_vort_ht.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Totally. I'm going to make a final call. Screw the model madness. DCA 0.6" BWI 1.4" IAD 2.1" Leesburg/MRB/HGR etc. 2.5-3.5". 4-5" above 1500' Phineas/PSU 3" Everyone else can extrapolate from that. Looks good to me. As per the usual, the highest totals will fall on and north of a line from hereford - Westminster - thurmont - martinsburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 30 hrs NAM 0Z 5H http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/nam/00/nam_namer_030_500_vort_ht.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 NAM's pretty juicy thru 30 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 33 hrs surface NAM http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/nam/00/nam_namer_033_10m_wnd_precip.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 33 hrs 5H-I'm posting these from the temp site, of course http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/nam/00/nam_namer_033_500_vort_ht.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 33 hrs, 850 temps have been DROPPING! http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/nam/00/nam_namer_033_850_temp_ht.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 36 hrs surface http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/nam/00/nam_namer_036_10m_wnd_precip.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 36 hrs 5H http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/nam/00/nam_namer_036_500_vort_ht.gif 850mb http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/nam/00/nam_namer_036_850_temp_ht.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 36 hr map we all know and love http://mag.ncep.noaa...mslp_precip.gif 700mb http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/nam/00/nam_namer_036_700_rh_ht.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 39 hrs surface/850 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/nam/00/nam_namer_039_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 500mb 39hrs http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/nam/00/nam_namer_039_500_vort_ht.gif 700rh http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/nam/00/nam_namer_039_700_rh_ht.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 NAM looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 39 still http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/nam/00/nam_namer_039_10m_wnd_precip.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Is anyone really surprised? Nam is showing exactly what we need not cry in our rain with bl issues. I been unusually confident with this one...I prob just jinxed us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 0.3" ish QPF for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 NAM looks good. boundary issues aaaagain anyway, here's 42 hr surface I'm done after this one http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/nam/00/nam_namer_042_10m_wnd_precip.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Is anyone really surprised? Nam is showing exactly what we need not cry in our rain with bl issues. I been unusually confident with this one...I prob just jinxed us... idk Bob, check out those surface maps on the good side is that it starts before 7AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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