MidlothianWX Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 DT first guess is out...shooting for 4+ NW of DCA and BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I promised myself I wouldn't start doing this so I'll stop here. Just look at the h5 vort panels in the same point in time. 18z on the left. You can see the vort is stronger and further south on the latest run. Still not an optimal pass but put it 100 miles further south and everything changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 DT first guess is out...shooting for 4+ NW of DCA and BWI I'm confused what DC is. I guess 2-4"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I swear this is it... Look what happens at the surface with that little shift at 500. Surface low to our west is just a bit further south as well. That's the key feature. Wes explained it perfectly. If we want to will this mess to give us a *decent* snow then we need to will the ns vort and surface low about 100 miles or so further south. I'm not smart enough to know what would happen irt to the slp to the south but I can only imagine good things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I have to hand it to him on the note about locations on a map. Lol facebookers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 fyi, I didn't see it posted 12z RGEM at 48 hrs looked d@mn good to me (though 18z out shortly); I know it did well with yesterday's storm wrt cold/snow http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/12_054_R1_north@america_I_QPFTYPES_t6_048.png http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/600_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidlothianWX Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I'm confused what DC is. I guess 2-4"? I suppose. His map labeling skills aren't the best. I remember with the March '09 storm he had me under an unlabeled black circle. Never quite figured out what that was. RIC gets the typical mix shaft again. Good thing I'll be up in FDK for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Daves map is really aggressive considering the afternoon models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Daves map is really aggressive considering the afternoon models he knows you like aggressive men lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 he knows you like aggressive men lol mitch.....it's the holidays Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I swear this is it... Look what happens at the surface with that little shift at 500. Surface low to our west is just a bit further south as well. That's the key feature. Wes explained it perfectly. If we want to will this mess to give us a *decent* snow then we need to will the ns vort and surface low about 100 miles or so further south. I'm not smart enough to know what would happen irt to the slp to the south but I can only imagine good things. Bob you literally "willed" the CHILL storm to a stellar performance. It's time again for you to make the vort continue on its southward trek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I look at this wv loop and wonder on the one hand if yesterday's 5h will get out of the way in time and on the other Saturday's system seems to have a lot of moisture to tap http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I look at this wv loop and wonder on the one hand if yesterday's 5h will get out of the way in time and on the other Saturday's system seems to have a lot of moisture to tap http://www.ssd.noaa....s/flash-wv.html It does, and thats probably one of the reasons Bob and myself alike expect it to trend wetter up to game time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I look at this wv loop and wonder on the one hand if yesterday's 5h will get out of the way in time and on the other Saturday's system seems to have a lot of moisture to tap http://www.ssd.noaa....s/flash-wv.html uh...,mitch....ummm.....yea.....about the water vapor hallucinations.....you might want to see if your health insurance covers that.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 DT seems to think western areas do well again. This is shaping up to be a very good early winter out here. Our one stop light might lose power. In all seriousness. Its not that far to come out and be in the snow. I made the choice to live here for this very reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 GFS out to 42.. looks pretty good to my weenie eyeballs EDIT: still looks on the warmer side of guidance. 0c line hanging around DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 DT seems to think western areas do well again. This is shaping up to be a very good early winter out here. Our one stop light might lose power. In all seriousness. Its not that far to come out and be in the snow. I made the choice to live here for this very reason. it definitely isn't that much of a drive. the xmas eve storm, i didn't need to leave bethesda (was working remote), but was like, i need to see some snow, so i drove up to gaithersburg then towards poolesville. the differences with "not that much elevation" are pretty dramatic. if you're a snow lover, it can pay off living a little further north or west from the bustling cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Daves map is really aggressive considering the afternoon models The HPC has similar thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 ..and there it is! Put on your 3D glasses.. it looks even better. lol it's like clockwork if you want Yeoman to post, mention the wv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Anybody find any irony in this? From DT storm write up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Daves map is really aggressive considering the afternoon models I guess they think the models might be too far east or too weak. I have no idea if that is true from a meteorological perspective, but I do know that the models have pulled this act many, many times only to tug back west a little at 36 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 GFS is good except for the surface we will see if it trends better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 fyi, I didn't see it posted 12z RGEM at 48 hrs looked d@mn good to me (though 18z out shortly); I know it did well with yesterday's storm wrt cold/snow http://www.weatherof...YPES_t6_048.png http://www.weatherof...ast/600_100.gif i like the pseudo 50-50 in that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swimmatte Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 FWIW whoa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 fwiw, channel 4 (kammerer) seems to be on board for an accumulating snow in dc. it's nice that things seem to be trending a little better as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Ellinwood's first call. Going more bearish for now... could definitely see myself pulling the southern edge further south if the surface temps look like they'll cooperate. http://www.americanw...-28-29-initial/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Ellinwood's first call. It's going to snow in DC. People need to stop fretting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 HPC look bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Ellinwood's first call. I think he'll end up needing to pull that southern edge south, but it sounds like he's already prepared to do that anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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