PhineasC Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I didn't really see a trend toward the euro...just a little wetter...still similar to 6z Could this just be the typical GFS SE suppression nonsense? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 The GFS is NOT snow for DC metro...not sure if it is sleet or rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 The American models really make me angry, I mean the UKMET came in nice again, what's the deal with these strung out warm pieces of crap the GFS and NAM have. EURO, UKMET, GGEM, RGEM vs. GFS, NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 This thread is funny. Good luck sea level dwellers with traffic lights out the wazoo. Seriously, hope this ends well for you guys. Looked better to me at the quickest of glances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 the gfs and euro are always on different planets for everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 the gfs and euro are always on different planets for everything Which one do you think is right Ji? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Which one do you think is right Ji? The one that gives him the most snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 the gfs and euro are always on different planets for everything What's jay hatem weather saying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Which one do you think is right Ji? lol @ asking Ji which is the right model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 lol @ asking Ji which is the right model I'd hug the Euro if I were DT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Well it was more a joke anyways, we know what Ji thinks, his snowy desires consume him. Meanwhile, RGEM and GGEM just came in snowy for us (DC included). Check it out: http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 What's jay hatem weather saying? Snowstorm very likely Saturday. Probably our biggest one since January 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I am always fascinated when the models diverge so close in to an event...any ideas what piece of the puzzle the Euro/Canadian/UK are handling differently than the American models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 The GFS is NOT snow for DC metro...not sure if it is sleet or rain Yeah, the east southeast winds and wv low are still a problem. it still may start as snow but it is still not what we want. I think even the Euro is marginal for you and I, better but it still has some esely surface winds which make the boundary layer tricky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I wish you would evolve your way back out of this region. But why don't you remind us all how much better NYC is one more time before you go just in case anyone missed it. I feel like this is going to evolve into a major storm for areas further north, but DC will still see a 3-5" event. The EURO has looked close to something big for some time, and I think the same trend with this past storm seems to be occurring with the new one (further N&W, which in this case is a good thing). Will be the first white New Years in quite a while, I think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Hoffman, what are your thoughts on the Saturday event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 The GFS is NOT snow for DC metro...not sure if it is sleet or rain Yeah. Warm BL and very weak precip rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Yeah, the east southeast winds and wv low are still a problem. it still may start as snow but it is still not what we want. I think even the Euro is marginal for you and I, better but it still has some esely surface winds which make the boundary layer tricky. If the column goes above freezing around 950mb, is that usually sleet or rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Lol...Dave just pulled out the WRF and it basically shows rain for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Lol...Dave just pulled out the WRF and it basically shows rain for everyone Or not, 850's -5 and sfc temps 33? No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Or not, 850's -5 and sfc temps 33? No. up by me and you maybe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I'm looking forward to the day when people don't waffle with every model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I'm looking forward to the day when everyone doesn't waffle with every model run. teh GFS has looked bad for a while now...I would be pretty much writing this one off if the euro didnt show a monster last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I'm looking forward to the day when people don't waffle with every model run. I figure it is nearly time for the 18Z NAM or GFS to go bonkers and make everyone think we are getting a foot of snow out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Wundermap question. On the 2m agl map below what does the red line stand for? the color coding fo the 3m temp zero line is much different than the red line. I find having both there confusing. Thanks to anyone who can answer the question. Wes, I believe the lines are dewpoint contours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 teh GFS has looked bad for a while now...I would be pretty much writing this one off if the euro didnt show a monster last night Sounds good, disregard the UKMET and the GGEM as well as the RGEM, SREF's also and the NAM isn't bad. For Old Town maybe so, but idk even if that suffices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 9z SREFs: Mean of 0.23" snow for Baltimore, 0.21" for DC. Pretty big range though as most of the members that actually have snow, have quite a bit more. Mean is low because a few members are all/nearly-all rain. DC, of course, has more members start as rain than Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Hoffman, what are your thoughts on the Saturday event? I think it's very borderline for dc and Balt but I think the usual nw burbs could do well with a 2-3" type event. The h5 isn't really amplified enough for me to buy the euro solution and it has a bias of overamplification. I think it's a good setup for a decent shot of waa snow. Only problem for dc is the air mass is just blah not really cold. Even if it was more amped it might also bring precip type problems unless the deepening took place at the perfect timing like the euro shows. I'd hedge towards a modest snow. Our area might be a good place to be. I will be in nc so you all enjoy this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Sounds good, disregard the UKMET and the GGEM as well as the RGEM, SREF's also and the NAM isn't bad. For Old Town maybe so, but idk even if that suffices. The UKmet is a good model....but we never have good maps for it...otherwise, I will disregard the rest....they are inferior.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 12Z GFS ensemble mean looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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