WxUSAF Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 9z SREFs: Mean of 0.23" snow for Baltimore, 0.21" for DC. Pretty big range though as most of the members that actually have snow, have quite a bit more. Mean is low because a few members are all/nearly-all rain. DC, of course, has more members start as rain than Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Hoffman, what are your thoughts on the Saturday event? I think it's very borderline for dc and Balt but I think the usual nw burbs could do well with a 2-3" type event. The h5 isn't really amplified enough for me to buy the euro solution and it has a bias of overamplification. I think it's a good setup for a decent shot of waa snow. Only problem for dc is the air mass is just blah not really cold. Even if it was more amped it might also bring precip type problems unless the deepening took place at the perfect timing like the euro shows. I'd hedge towards a modest snow. Our area might be a good place to be. I will be in nc so you all enjoy this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 12Z GFS ensemble mean looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 12Z GFS ensemble mean looks good. Getting in range where that's not so useful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Getting in range where that's not so useful. It's lined up pretty well with the rest of the 12Z guidance, so just another data point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Wes- Are you gonna do a CWG article on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 it looks ok?...I'm not sure it makes sense to use the GFS mean so close to an event.....People like the SREF better as it is designed for this purpose, but after last winter and this last event, I don't know how anyone can take the NAM or anything related to it seriously...It is for entertainment purposes only SREF is pretty good overall IMO. I use it more than the NAM for svr etc. not sure on snow but its supposedly the future of forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 SREF is pretty good overall IMO. I use it more than the NAM for svr etc. not sure on snow but its supposedly the future of forecasting. Well our future shows .5 QPF on the mean, and some indiv members are good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Well our future shows .5 QPF on the mean, and some indiv members are good. The Boxing Day storm left a bad taste but that was a tough storm for guidance. I'd give it some weight if its good. I haven't looked at anything other than this thread in a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 The Boxing Day storm left a bad taste but that was a tough storm for guidance. I'd give it some weight if its good. I haven't looked at anything other than this thread in a few days. Did you get to play in any water spouts in Florida? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 The Boxing Day storm left a bad taste but that was a tough storm for guidance. I'd give it some weight if its good. I haven't looked at anything other than this thread in a few days. It was a painful shot to the gut, but overall it has had its good times as well. The BD 2010 storm was a really tough one for the models as a whole, its easy to see the dips in verification scores with that one on the grids, so I mean I pay attention to the SREF. When the NMB on ewall has a nice storm, there's a storm coming (they never show anything). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Did you get to play in any water spouts in Florida? Na. The front went thru early and it was just showers. Saw a crappy gust front near Leesburg! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Na. The front went thru early and it was just showers. Saw a crappy gust front near Leesburg! Funny...Leesburg Florida...the place to be for crappy gust fronts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Wes- Are you gonna do a CWG article on this? I just submitted one and it is undoubtedly the worst one I've ever done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I'm really liking our chances at 2-3" in DC Metro. GFS Means look decent, Euro is fantastic (and the King). I think the next NAM should show improvment as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Hr 48 a little colder in southern va precip into dc I'm liking my spot in Canaan valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Euro folds, as expected to be honest. Other models meeting it in the middle, 1-3" Baltimore final call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Hr 48 a little colder in southern va precip into dc I'm liking my spot in Canaan valley im guessing surface low weaker than yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 im guessing surface low weaker than yesterday? DC gets like .15 I'd say, tell that Ian guy to never come back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 im guessing surface low weaker than yesterday? By 8mb at 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I'm looking forward to the day when people don't waffle with every model run. Hahahaha good luck with that happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Dude Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I'm liking my spot in Canaan valley Ain't that always the truth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 we cant win around here. Euro went from wettest model to the driest model. Hopefully it was a blip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Shoot, I was looking forward to my nice little snowfall....doesn't the euro know I'm supposed to receive one every 48-72 hours? Toss it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 we cant win around here. Euro went from wettest model to the driest model. Hopefully it was a blip To be honest, it looks weird. Idk weenie glasses for me, but 1-3", lets see what the next runs have to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 To be honest, it looks weird. Idk weenie glasses for me, but 1-3", lets see what the next runs have to say. Keep looking until one shows a HECS? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Keep looking until one shows a HECS? lol Sure why not, thats what everyone else does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 To be honest, it looks weird. Idk weenie glasses for me, but 1-3", lets see what the next runs have to say. I am pretty sure they will say that snow lovers down our way should move north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Euro. Yah. Toss that baby. It is gonna show something different next run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Hr 48 a little colder in southern va precip into dc I'm liking my spot in Canaan valley How does west RIC near Henrico look on Euro...wife is forcing me to visit relatives...something about the holidays Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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