Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I love images like this. The little light green pickle shape is pretty close to winterwxluvr. lol Dual lows really stink. What the nam is showing is possible. I personally don't think it will shake out that way but if it did I wouldn't be shocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 On 12/28/2012 at 8:21 PM, Amped said: It's the cold sector that counts, not the warm sector. I don't care how hard it's raining in Alabama. the weenie thinking is that the stronger southern system will curtail the warming caused by a stronger northern system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 On 12/28/2012 at 8:21 PM, mitchnick said: saw that, but surface readings show the southern Low is much stronger and getting stronger Current Pressures http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=pr&inv=0&t=cur 3 hr changes http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=3p&inv=0&t=cur if you go back several hours from the current pressure map the deepening of the southern Low is even more impressive Read my post just above, saw that for sure. One of the things Bob talked about to help us out, good news for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 On 12/28/2012 at 8:23 PM, mitchnick said: the weenie thinking is that the stronger southern system will curtail the warming caused by a stronger northern system I've been waiting and waiting for a sign that the northern low wouldn't interact as much as the models show but even looking at the unisys stuff it doesn't really mean that the northern low won't be 1005-8ish and fook with the southern low. 18z nam could have been a blip....but it could be picking up on the interaction better... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 On 12/28/2012 at 7:28 PM, leesburg 04 said: Moe Larry and Curley Dave has the Curley part nailed. I'll be happy if I were to get an inch of snow out of this storm. Too bad I won't be there to see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 On 12/28/2012 at 8:22 PM, Ian said: Yeah and sometimes that stuff can moisture rob. Radar looks decent tho. On the other hand storms with a decent looking CCB almost always over-perform. The CCB here looks about as predicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 The NAM shouldnt have been the first model I looked at today. I'm about to jump off a bridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I've been moaning about moisture robbing for days now....wouldn't shock me...radar time for me...models give me headaches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 On 12/28/2012 at 8:32 PM, Ian said: The NAM shouldnt have been the first model I looked at today. I'm about to jump off a bridge. Yeah, it spooked the heck out of me. I am trying to pretend it can't be true but it looks like such a typical and obvious screwjob that it is impossible to ignore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 On 12/28/2012 at 8:34 PM, leesburg 04 said: I've been moaning about moisture robbing for days now....wouldn't shock me...radar time for me...models give me headaches Yeah, but you always moan about that, even before a HECS dumping 2 inches of precip across the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 On 12/28/2012 at 8:34 PM, leesburg 04 said: I've been moaning about moisture robbing for days now....wouldn't shock me...radar time for me...models give me headaches 40:1 ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 On 12/28/2012 at 8:35 PM, PhineasC said: Yeah, it spooked the heck out of me. I am trying to pretend it can't be true but it looks like such a typical and obvious screwjob that it is impossible to ignore. meh... the 00z will resolve all of this.. were fine.. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 On 12/28/2012 at 8:37 PM, PDIII said: meh... the 00z will resolve all of this.. were fine.. lol Reality will resolve it all, models are done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 On 12/28/2012 at 8:04 PM, Disc said: Glad to see they are a little bullish this time. I usually find them fairly conservative in their forecasts. I feel pretty good about this storm today I guess it's the fact the temp is about 6 degrees below what guidance had showed for a high today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 On 12/28/2012 at 8:40 PM, zwyts said: the NAM is garbage.,...I know it offends some of the govt guys when people say this and granted, I am not a met and only use it for limited purposes, but it sucks...it really does...it is rarely right about anything is it cold? We could use it for that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 On 12/28/2012 at 8:43 PM, leesburg 04 said: is it cold? We could use it for that Temps are fine. Worry about liquid. You'll still get more snow than me regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 On 12/28/2012 at 8:43 PM, leesburg 04 said: is it cold? We could use it for that Lol.. Just something hilarious about the thought of you, Ji, and Dave forming Leesburg Weather Gang. It would be entertaining as anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 On 12/28/2012 at 8:40 PM, zwyts said: the NAM is garbage.,...I know it offends some of the govt guys when people say this and granted, I am not a met and only use it for limited purposes, but it sucks...it really does...it is rarely right about anything it definitely has poor consistency tho i think it shows some signals here and there and it's usually not awful within 24 hours for many events.. winter storm forecasts are not its best attribute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 On 12/28/2012 at 8:45 PM, gymengineer said: Lol.. Just something hilarious about the thought of you, Ji, and Dave forming Leesburg Weather Gang. It would be entertaining as anything. The street battles between them and CWG would be pretty awesome. I hear Wes fights dirty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 On 12/28/2012 at 8:44 PM, H2O said: Temps are fine. Worry about liquid. You'll still get more snow than me regardless. I can assure you that he is very worried about liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 You can already see the moisture starting to split in NE Louisiana...big blob passing to our North...blob to our South then boom in th ocean North of us How's that for some hallucinations lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 On 12/28/2012 at 8:21 PM, Ian said: Bob Ryan says less than 50% for 1" at DCA now. I doubt I'd go for 50% or better odds of 1" at DCA until most of the area was in a WS warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I can't remember if we are supposed to care or not, but I thought the 15Z SREFs looked pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 On 12/28/2012 at 8:56 PM, WxUSAF said: I doubt I'd go for 50% or better odds of 1" at DCA until most of the area was in a WS warning. Yeah, this is the type of event where DCA could get .5" and I could get 1.5". But he seemed to be downgrading things.. tho honestly I'm not sure what he's been saying prior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 On 12/28/2012 at 8:53 PM, leesburg 04 said: You can already see the moisture starting to split in NE Louisiana...big blob passing to our North...blob to our South then boom in th ocean North of us How's that for some hallucinations lol Crappy. Those are crappy hallucinations. You need better 'shrooms... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 IT's nowcasting time fellas, feels like snow outside though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 On 12/28/2012 at 8:48 PM, Ian said: The street battles between them and CWG would be pretty awesome. I hear Wes fights dirty. You gotta hand it to Wes.. Somehow he manages to post on topic about weather during your once a year epic hissy throwdowns with Matt and Randy, as if nothing was happening on the board. That's the laser focus necessary to win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 idk, first chance I had to look closer at the 12z Euro and I am not impressed with it for BWI at all these marginal events the last 2 (now 3rd) years have me more than a little fed up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 On 12/28/2012 at 8:22 PM, Bob Chill said: I love images like this. The little light green pickle shape is pretty close to winterwxluvr. lol Dual lows really stink. What the nam is showing is possible. I personally don't think it will shake out that way but if it did I wouldn't be shocked. What are you trying to say Bob? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I'll never forget Bob Ryan forcast a few flurries just a couple days before our 24" storm in 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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