stormtracker Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Euro is nice, Wes likes it, I'm investing some stock in it. Gfs shows something, but isn't as enthusiastic. What say you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Euro is nice, Wes likes it, I'm investing some stock in it. Gfs shows something, but isn't as enthusiastic. What say you? That you're a loveable weenie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Euro is nice, Wes likes it, I'm investing some stock in it. Gfs shows something, but isn't as enthusiastic. What say you? 12z euro ens. mean looks good for the mid atl. low off the nc coast and plenty cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 12z euro ens. mean looks good for the mid atl. low off the nc coast and plenty cold The GFS ens mean 500h also looked really good for something off the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 To see Wes liking it is a great sign, decent consensus and its crept up on us to 120ish hours by this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 24, 2012 Author Share Posted December 24, 2012 That you're a loveable weenie? You love me the most. I can tell. I'm your favorite weenie. Seriously I like that you like this one. I've always liked this one a hell of a lot better than today's junk and Chill's Rainer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Nice spacing between the 50-50 and a pos tilted trough exiting the Rockies on 18z gfs. No reason to believe this thing is gonna cut on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Our usually SE 18z gfs isn't too bad with a couple inches of overrunning/minor coastal related snow. Scoots the storm ots after 138, but looks good for a solid 2-3"+ on many models, thats a good thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 GFS is like a 2"....misses us slightly south and east.....nice to see it on all the models every run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 The solid takeaway from today's runs are an ok 5h setup and pure snow solutions. Flow is kinda flat for a big storm but that's totally fine with me. I have a strong hunch this thing trends wetter. Even if it slides it can easily throw a good shield of overunning into the coldest airmass of the season. I'm not working at all this week. Gonna model watch until my pupils have a 16:9 aspect ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Good to see the GFS out to sea in this time frame. The setup is nice as well. And of course Wes likes it so it deserves attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 Good to see the GFS out to sea in this time frame. The setup is nice as well. And of course Wes likes it so it deserves attention. Best part is even that ots gives bal/dc 2-3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 The solid takeaway from today's runs are an ok 5h setup and pure snow solutions. Flow is kinda flat for a big storm but that's totally fine with me. I have a strong hunch this thing trends wetter. Even if it slides it can easily throw a good shield of overunning into the coldest airmass of the season. I'm not working at all this week. Gonna model watch until my pupils have a 16:9 aspect ratio. I like your thinking, Bob. I'm at home all week, so I'll have a lot of time on my hands. Whether that's a good thing or not, I'm not quite sure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 24, 2012 Share Posted December 24, 2012 GFS is like a 2"....misses us slightly south and east.....nice to see it on all the models every run It's better south than perfect this early in the game. It's still a pretty good set-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Randy, now I'm catering to your weenie side. The 120 hr European ens mean 500h today had many of the same similarities as the GEFS that I posted in the medium range thread and it has some similarities to the anomaly pattern found with DCs 8 inch or greater composite. That's not to say it will produce an 8 inch storm or even a snow storm as there are too many days out there to know for sure and the block on the euro is not as storm as on the typical composite. Below I've attached the euro 120 hr and the dca 8 inch or greater 500h anomaly composite for about a day before the storm. Compare the location of the negative height anomaly near western TN on the euro forecast and note and how closely it mimics location on the 8 inch or greater composite. Both also have a negative height anomaly south of the positive anomaly that stretches across the Baffin Bay region. The maritimes low is quite a bit weaker than the composite but is in a good place though its size worries me some that it could become displaced farther east than we'd like but on this forecast, it's right where we want it. On the forecast you can also infer a possible double jet structure by looking at where the closest spacing of the height lines occurs in relation to the approaching trough and another to the southwest of the trough over the maritimes. That jet streak configuration is really a good one if you want a storm to develop. The importance of the Boxing day storm in the evolution and track of this one can be shown some on the 120hr euro ens mean surface forecast. I've annotated a rough frontal location on it with a dark black curving line. Note that the 850 temp lines are packed down across the southeast as cold air was forced southward by the boxer day storm. a Frontal trough is already located along the southeast coast. That feature will start lifting north in response to the approaching 500h trof. As it lifts northward the low will track along that front. It's been a long time since I've liked a set up this much. That doesn't mean we get a storm but that there is more potential than we've seen for a couple of years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Awesome write up, Wes, made even better by the fact that you seem pretty enamored with the setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Awesome write up, Wes, made even better by the fact that you seem pretty enamored with the setup. Agreed. Really nice write up. Now we sit and hope it holds or gets better Those maps certainly look nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Damn Wes, this is an all ages board. Maybe rated R post but its borderline porn. I've been goofing off to much to really sit down and take a look. The one thing that stood out from my quick glance is that there is a lot less to go wrong this time. We can always get hosed but the odds are clearly better in our favor. I'm luvin being free from work all week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Agreed. Really nice write up. Now we sit and hope it holds or gets better Those maps certainly look nice. lets hope as the storm still could shear and go south too far for us, could have the block weaken and something go to the TN Valley like the Boxing day stomr (I think right now that is not as likely but still is possible) or could be right there for us. That both model ens mean's look pretty good is certainly a plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Wes is awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 LOL Wes rules. After weeks of smashing our hopes and dreams, he knows just how to feed the weenies enough to keep us coming back for more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I'm in except I said December would suck so this would be problematic to that call. Close enough I can count it as January. The post-chill storm.. Book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I don't really like the all or nothing thinking amongst this forum. Even in a good to great setup most storms will be imperfect or fail completely. I'm rooting for a snow event of any kind. There is a reason most of our snow events are small to medium events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 The 00z seems a little drier for Saturday night. Seems a bit zonal and quicker? Doesn't throw as much moisture our way as the 12z. Still 5 days out. Not worried as yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 It's better south than perfect this early in the game. It's still a pretty good set-up. I'd love a 2-4" storm. I have a feeling if this storm threat remains viable I wil spend most of the week bashing climo over people's heads. I could get suspended this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I would love any all snow storm right now. 1 to 3" is nice and 2 to 4" is better. I would take both and hope the winter is just getting started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 This storm has been looking good for an accumulating snow event on the models for quite some time now. I love the 500H 8"+ anomoly map. Great post as always Wes, made even better because you rarely start buzzing about a pattern or storm. You are the most reserved about jumping on storms, but when you do your track record is damn good. I just hope we get a couple inches from this storm. It's been a while since the grass has been completely covered by snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I don't really like the all or nothing thinking amongst this forum. Even in a good to great setup most storms will be imperfect or fail completely. I'm rooting for a snow event of any kind. There is a reason most of our snow events are small to medium events. 6-12 or bust. And I'd guess the latter is more likely. But hey. I liked the post-Chill period like a week ago so ill ride it for now. Is party cloudy better than cold rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Hr 120 low just south of hatt. Snowing from ga western sc/nc and all of va wva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Euro a bit east this run, overall where we want it. Feeling confident of a 2"+ snow in Baltimore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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