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Christmas Eve/Day Light Snowfall OBS & Discussion


earthlight

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Storm at sea around?

As I said 3 days ago, the Christmas storm is going to be mostly snow for the NYC area. Cold airmass in place with low dewpoints and a weak low tracking to our south spells a decent period of snow, despite limited QPF. Models tried to bring the low too far north, but the fact is it's a weak system without too much ridging ahead of it. Radar does look very healthy in southern PA/NJ, so we might be in for a surprise.

35.2/26 with some clouds moving in here in Southern Westchester. Temperature ticking down as the sun sets, so I think we'll see mostly snow from this system, especially considering the low dewpoints.

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Just as I hoped, there is slight radiational cooling going on (KFOK down to 31F), especially more east out on the island. That might help us :)

It's still snowing in northern Virginia...we'll be fine. All of the NYC metro area is going to see snow, and most of us will probably get some accumulation. Snow appears to be sticking in the suburbs of DC and Baltimore, and radar looks good.

Merry Christmas. And to all who said this storm would be rain, especially the meteorologists, weenies like me win this one. :snowing:

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It's still snowing in northern Virginia...we'll be fine. All of the NYC metro area is going to see snow, and most of us will probably get some accumulation. Snow appears to be sticking in the suburbs of DC and Baltimore, and radar looks good.

Merry Christmas. And to all who said this storm would be rain, especially the meteorologists, weenies like me win this one. :snowing:

At least wait until official NYC reports start coming in before you take props. You don't want to jinx us!

:snowwindow:

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the good news is that there is no strong advection with a SE component to the wind...Im guessing most will have an all light snow event nw of 95...here to the SE in monmouth county, id guess light snow should ciommence soon and change to light rain/ip over the course of the evening..but in the end I'm hoping and wouldnt be totally surprised if it stayed a wet snow even here :weenie:

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Some of it is undoubtedly bright-banding, but that's going to be a solid band of snow when it arrives here. I'm at 34.9/26 so definitely expecting to accumulate quickly.

Watch the radar in SE PA. That's snow, and that's what's heading toward you. The stuff in south Jersey is heading more east, it won't reach you.

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Warm layer made it into MIV/ACY but sometimes that does not follow suit up in NYC, especially in such light E-SE flow....definitely a bit concerned this band may fall almost entirely as snow except maybe for parts of LI

I'm fully expecting snow even out here at this point. I have calm winds, 31/26. I could be wrong, but what exactly is going to do the warming? The calm winds? I was a little suprised at uptons latest dico calling for mainly rain.

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I'm fully expecting snow even out here at this point. I have calm winds, 31/26. I could be wrong, but what exactly is going to do the warming? The calm winds? I was a little suprised at uptons latest dico calling for mainly rain.

There could be enough of a warm layer between say 900-970mb sitting over LI that could cause this to basically just fall as rain, we won't know til it starts falling though, if it starts as snow its probably going to stay snow.

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There could be enough of a warm layer between say 900-970mb sitting over LI that could cause this to basically just fall as rain, we won't know til it starts falling though, if it starts as snow its probably going to stay snow.

Then lets hope for snow. Upton's asleep again, surprised they're still calling for an almost all rain event.

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There could be enough of a warm layer between say 900-970mb sitting over LI that could cause this to basically just fall as rain, we won't know til it starts falling though, if it starts as snow its probably going to stay snow.

I think Long Island is going to be OK. Meanwhile looking great up here...White Plains down to 32/22 and I feel a nice surprise is in store.

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Then lets hope for snow. Upton's asleep again, surprised they're still calling for an almost all rain event.

Even here in Dobbs Ferry (southern Westchester), Upton has a mix tonight and rain tomorrow with less than a half inch of accumulation. I think this is a mistake...I expect that Westchester picks up 1-3" of snow if the band holds.

Also, OKX has all rain for the Wednesday/Thursday event, which looks to start frozen on both the GFS and Euro. The Euro is a moderate snowstorm here, as are the Euro Ensembles. Upton should at least introduce a snow/rain mix for the big system on the 27th.

The only thing they have the right idea on is Saturday, when they are forecasting a chance of snow for the potential Miller A. That one looks plenty cold and pretty far east, so the 30% chance of snow is a solid prog.

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There could be enough of a warm layer between say 900-970mb sitting over LI that could cause this to basically just fall as rain, we won't know til it starts falling though, if it starts as snow its probably going to stay snow.

Thx goose, I knew that was a possibility. I take some comfort in this image tho.

post-4973-0-87720600-1356389742_thumb.gi

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