Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,589
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Storm Chance 12/30/12


RowanBrandon

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 766
  • Created
  • Last Reply

a 50 mile difference in snow swath 72 hours out is not bad...nudge the differences and you pretty put the snow swath right over 95. ( :weenie:)

lolz, im pretty much sold on a 1-3 2-4...im not yet sold on the coastal. I think a scenario like the gfs/ggem/ukie blend is likely. You get the 2-4 with the northern stream and the coast gets scraped by the coastal.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

lolz, im pretty much sold on a 1-3 2-4...im not yet sold on the coastal. I think a scenario like the gfs/ggem/ukie blend is likely. You get the 2-4 with the northern stream and the coast gets scraped by the coastal.

If the GFS is right, there'll be some dry slotting in South Jersey. The Euro is definitely their best hope for good snows.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

here's the 0z Euro ens compared to the 12z ones. (timing is 12hr difference, due to lack of 10000's of dollars to access of ensembles. lol) The overall point it you can see how much more amp'd there are down south/west.

vujutura.jpg

0z left, 12z right.

Would like to see the GFS come around more amp'd to garner support for the 12z euro solution.

also, NAM and SREF's came in pretty flat fwiw.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

fwiw here is the 6z rgem...definitely amped up than the 0z

06_054_R1_north@america_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_048.jpg

The 00Z/06Z NOGAPS remain a miss but are basically what the NAM is doing, I'd like to start seeing the NOGAPS catch on. I'm not totally sold yet the 00Z Euro run was not a fluke. The old ETA by the way, at least the 03Z run of it was about as close to Euro like as anything, 09Z run not out yet.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

mine has the counties though :P

I was going to post a twister map, but its not of that quality. :whistle: Wes on the main page has a good explanation of how you can have an "index" positive nao that isn't really positive for us. The fact that he even started a thread is a great sign. The last two sounding runs make much more sense with the pna becoming more positive and if today's sounding run stays the course, I won't even have to golf for it. ;)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I was going to post a twister map, but its not of that quality. Wes on the main page has a good explanation of how youcan have an "index" positive nao that isn't really. The fact that he even started a thread is a great sign. The last two sounding runs make much more sense with the pna becoming more positive and if today's sounding run stays the course, I won't even have to golf for it. ;)

Yea this is a textbook case of when it says positive and its not. It all depends on the block. I'm pretty sure those numbers are computed over greenland. When you have a west based block the warmest anomalies are south of green land in the davis straits while greenland region is neutral to negative this case.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

HPC snow discussion. Increasing probability of 4" snow. Ensembles indicate a larger evnt is possible.

MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COAST...

A LOT OF SPREAD TO CONSIDER WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER SNOW

STORM TO IMPACT THE NORTHEAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE NAM WAS

RULED OUT DUE TO POOR CLUSTERING WITH OTHER GUIDANCE WITH SURFACE

LOW TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...WHILE

THE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF/00Z UKMET AND THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEANS

CLUSTERED FAIRLY WELL. HOWEVER...THE ENSEMBLE MEMBER SPREAD IS

ABOUT 4 TO 5 TIMES AS LARGE IN DIAMETER AS THE DETERMINISTIC

CLUSTER...THUS SUPPORTING LOW CONFIDENCE AS A WHOLE. THE 00Z

ECMWF IS EVEN CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH ITS LOW TRACK THAN ITS

PRIOR RUN...SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY FOR EVEN HIGHER SNOW

AMOUNTS. HOWEVER...THIS IS JUST 1 ONE OF MANY SOLUTIONS TO

CONSIDER. GIVEN THE COMPLEXITY OF THE MULTIPLE STREAMS COMPRISING

THE SHORTWAVE PATTERN...HAVE CHOSEN INTERMEDIATE SOLUTIONS TO

DERIVE THE SNOW PRO ABILITIES WHILE ADDING SOME ENHANCEMENT FOR

SLIGHT CHANCES OF 8 AND 12 INCHES OF SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE

NORTHEAST COAST...WHERE THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS ARE MOST

SUPPORTIVE.

post-1201-0-14601600-1356613628_thumb.gi

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yea this is a textbook case of when it says positive and its not. It all depends on the block. I'm pretty sure those numbers are computed over greenland. When you have a west based block the warmest anomalies are south of green land in the davis straits while greenland region is neutral to negative this case.

Yup, what do they say about a picture telling a thousand words. There have been winter storm snows in the past at Philly with positive NAO(s), its just not as common and I bet some were like this. Thank-you Allan.

post-623-0-05379400-1356613824_thumb.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Thanks for your input Tony. Appreciate it! Alwyas a pleasure having our local mets chime in.

Tell Mike nice job on the Long term disco today too. He must of been bored, longest "long term" i've read in a while. Lol.

http://forecast.weat...1&highlight=off

Yes I will. Youth, I would need an I V or hear the words "clear" after writing that one.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

here's the 0z Euro ens compared to the 12z ones. (timing is 12hr difference, due to lack of 10000's of dollars to access of ensembles. lol) The overall point it you can see how much more amp'd there are down south/west.

vujutura.jpg

0z left, 12z right.

Would like to see the GFS come around more amp'd to garner support for the 12z euro solution.

also, NAM and SREF's came in pretty flat fwiw.

The NAM nearly always follows this MO. Beyond 48 hours its miserly with pcpn and flat with the system itself, by the night run on Friday night it will have more qpf than any other model for us.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...