Allsnow Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Gfs seems colder this run for Phl. Hopefully Tombo can confirm that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Eh, it's all for naught. Low deepens more than the past few runs (down to 1000 mb at 72) but it's still not close enough to the coast. Looks like 0.10" or a few hundredths more for everyone except ACY and southern Del. need that trof to take on a sharper look, its to rounded. Also, thats still pretty much rain se of i95 lol... phl is close.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 GFS is a solid hit, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 need that trof to take on a sharper look, its to rounded. Also, thats still pretty much rain se of i95 lol... phl is close.. Looks colder then 18z Ttn north looks to be all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Is the whole region snow? Any ptype issues down here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Gfs seems colder this run for Phl. Hopefully Tombo can confirm that bout the same. They start as snow then flip to rain or mix of the both... south of 95 liquid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Extreme south Jersey/central DE would have ptype issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 bout the same. They start as snow then flip to rain or mix of the both... south of 95 liquid Really? WTF am I looking at on stormvista? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Extreme south Jersey/central DE would have ptype issues. Looks to be all snow for suburbs of Phl on north. Phl/south and east have trouble around 925 between hr 66-69 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 solid snow event for nw burbs, lns-abe... pretty much .3-.4 http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2012122700&time=24&var=APCPI&hour=078 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Looks to be all snow for suburbs of Phl on north. Phl/south and east have trouble around 925 between hr 66-69 Yeah, makes sense. Lowest levels. It'd be nice to get some arctic air into the mix with these storm threats. Instead we play the borderline game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 3-4 in the nw burbs, lns-abe zone... 1-2 city and immediate burbs http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2012122700&time=24&var=ASNOWI&hour=078 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 No big changes but 00z GFS a little stronger continuing trend of today's runs. Also a little cooler. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 0z GGEM also came in stronger and more north than previous runs. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 0z GGEM also came in stronger and more north than previous runs. http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html Looks like 0.2"-0.4" for I-95. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/492_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 UKMET shifted west a bit too, I think: Brings 0.3"-0.4" into Philly. Very similar to the Canadian, actually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Gem+ukie are both colder than GFS. Snow throughout area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 UKMET and GGEM are both right around 9-10 mm for Philly. (0.36"-0.40") Perhaps I gave up too soon. We may get a solid WWA-criteria event out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 euro llooking better @ h5... slp more NW than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 WOW WOW @ 72... .5" from SCNJ to coast.... 992 east of cape may... hour 78... 976 south of Block island. thats basically benchmark... SWEET! hr 66 is .10-.25" for CWA...surface line runs i-95. 72 temps crash... .25-.5" from 5 county SEPA philly metro across the river 15 miles...cape may county 540 thickness over them, 850's just offshore. .75"+ for them hour 78. BIG STEP FOR US! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 986 mb in prime location, 850 mb freezing line offshore at this point: http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2012122700®ion=USA&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=072 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 AWESOME WEENIE RUN!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 AWESOME WEENIE RUN!!! Gimme some totals! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Gimme some totals! stole this from John (earthlight) from NYC: readingaccount1, on 27 December 2012 - 01:16 AM, said: Liquid area wide? 0.50" line from PHL to HPN 0.75" line from Mt Holly through JFK to CT Coast 1.00" line from Jersey Shore to Islip 1.50" from Montauk to Boston 2.00" over the Cape/Far SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 stole this from John (earthlight) from NYC: readingaccount1, on 27 December 2012 - 01:16 AM, said: Liquid area wide? 0.50" line from PHL to HPN 0.75" line from Mt Holly through JFK to CT Coast 1.00" line from Jersey Shore to Islip 1.50" from Montauk to Boston 2.00" over the Cape/Far SE MA. Nice! Thanks! HUGE step in the right direction! Now to see if it has ensemble support... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 GFS ens mean is wetter, slightly deeper, and slightly colder than the Op: Gets 0.50" to just south of PHL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Hey now: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 NWS mount holly for freehold Periods of snow, mainly after 9am. High near 35. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Saturday Night Snow likely, mainly before 11pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 60%. THIS TIME FRAME FEATURES AN INCREASING CHC FOR A WIDESPREADSNOWFALL OVER THE WEEKEND THEN COLDER TEMPERATURES TO FOLLOW. THE PATTERN GENERALLY IS COMPRISED OF SHORT WAVE RIDGING FRIDAY THAT QUICKLY SHIFTS TO OUR EAST WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OCCURRING. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL SWEEP EASTWARD WITH DECENT AMPLIFICATION TAKING PLACE. THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SHOWING VARIABILITY WITH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES, HOWEVER A BUILDING CONSENSUS IS POINTING TO ENOUGH INTERACTION TO PULL GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD AND ORGANIZE A DECENT SURFACE LOW. LARGE SCALE ASCENT ARRIVING ALONG WITH HEIGHT FALLS WILL ALLOW FOR A SURFACE LOW TO TRACK ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC. SINCE THE TROUGH IS FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE AMPLIFICATION/BASE, THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST COMPARED TO ITS PREDECESSOR. THIS WOULD RESULT IN AN OVERALL COLDER THERMAL PROFILE ACROSS A GOOD PART OF THE CWA. THIS LOOKS LIKE AN INTERESTING SYSTEM AS IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING A WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO MOST OF THE AREA. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Awesome mt holly honking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 euro ens are not as close as the op...but would probably bring some snows to the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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