Parsley Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 i think its todays storm, which is flattening everything out. I still wouldn't rule out snow.I think the northern stream will deliver but i don't see a big storm right now. Maybe a 1-3 2-4 type thing This is what I see too........plenty of time to change, but maybe the "perfect" monster storm (which ends up being too warm) isn't what we should be hoping for right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 hpc experimental snow probability http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf_24hr/prb_24hsnow_ge04_2012122700f072.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Last ditch effort from the Canadian? Looks to give PHL at least 12 mm (0.47") of liquid. although Allan Huffman's maps don't match at all. Shows less than 0.10" for the city. Even the SLP's for 0z SUN are different (998 mb on Meteocentre, 1001 mb and 1003 mb split Low on Allan's.) So I'm pretty confused... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 12z GFS ensemble mean is a little beefier than the op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Which model has handled this winter better in the mid and long ranges, Euro or GFS? Right now I don't know what to think. Also the HPC seems pretty bullish this early, not sure why. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 although Allan Huffman's maps don't match at all. Shows less than 0.10" for the city. Even the SLP's for 0z SUN are different (998 mb on Meteocentre, 1001 mb and 1003 mb split Low on Allan's.) So I'm pretty confused... 0.48" roughly matches the GEM e-wall maps. GEM is the strongest of todays 12z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Quite a bomb on the Euro ensembles. Mean is closer to shore than 00z. Matches Op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 FWIW 18Z NAM is OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
readingaccount1 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 FWIW 18Z NAM is OTS Yes, but it does give parts of SNJ a decent snowfall. At 12z they were dry. Trended N/W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I guess people are soo cooked up in this current event they're not looking at this one. This looks to be the city's and points SE first legit significant +3" snowfall potentially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Euro ensembles are pretty good for 95-se Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thedude11 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Anyone have the link to the page where you can put in your city and choose the model run output in the bar graph format in terms of precip type? Kind of confusing to describe, but hopefully someone can share that link with me as I am having trouble finding it... Thanks so much in advance! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 HPC Snow Discussion to go with map above. DAY 3...FRI EVE TO SAT EVE... ...OHIO VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS INTO THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND... THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FATE OF THE UPCOMING COMPLEX TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE WEST COAST TO THE EAST COAST BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. EARLIER RUNS OF THE ECMWF AND UKMET HAD HINTED OF A POSSIBLE EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT OFF THE EAST COAST BUT THEN MOST MODELS HAD BACKED OFF WITH A WEAKER AND MORE SUPPRESSED SYSTEM. THE 12Z RUNS NOW SUGGEST THAT THERE MAY BE MORE AMPLITUDE WITH THIS SYSTEM AS THE LATEST CANADIAN/UKMET AND ECMWF SUGGEST MORE PRECIPITATION AND THE SYSTEM SPREADING SNOW FARTHER NORTH THAN EARLIER RUNS. THERE STILL REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM SINCE IT APPEARS TO INVOLVE A LEAD SHORT WAVE MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE SW US EARLY ON FRIDAY THAT REACHES THE EASTERN US ON EARLY SATURDAY. THE SUCCESS OF THE FORECAST APPEARS TO DEPEND ON HOW ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY ON SATURDAY INTERACTS WITH THE INITIAL IMPULSE. RIGHT NOW...THERE SEEM TOBE SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WHICH MAY INFLUENCE WHETHER THE SYSTEMS REMAIN SOMEWHAT SEPARATE...AND WEAKER AND FLATTER...OR IF AN INTERACTION ALLOWS THE SYSTEM TO SOMEWHAT STRONGER AND AMPLIFY ACCORDINGLY...LEADING TO A MORE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM. THE JURY IS STILL OUT AND A MIDDLE ROAD IS TAKEN SINCE THE 12Z RUNS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PREVIOUS RUNS. THE 12Z RUNS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A SLIGHTLY MORE VIGOROUS SYSTEM WITH THE POTENTIAL TO YIELD GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND FROM FRI NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS A RESULT...AN AREA OF LOW PROBABILITIES FOR GREATER THAN 4 INCHES OF SNOW FROM WEST VIRGINIA ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC TO LONG ISLAND REFLECTS THE POSSIBILITY THAT SIGNIFICANT SNOW MAY FALL BUT THAT MUCH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhillyBlizzard17 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I like the latest trends. Hoping 00z is a little more amped. A nice 3"+ event would be just fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I like the latest trends. Hoping 00z is a little more amped. A nice 3"+ event would be just fine. philly actually flips to rain at the end of that system and south jersey is rain. skew t for miv phl does get snow but they switch over to rain phl hr 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhillyBlizzard17 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 philly actually flips to rain at the end of that system and south jersey is rain. skew t for miv phl does get snow but they switch over to rain phl hr 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhillyBlizzard17 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Wow didn't notice that. I hope there is no rain involved for Philly metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 The GFS has been warmer than the Euro. Need today's storm to get into a good position to hold in the cold air. The 18z GEFS mean continues to be a little stronger than the OP run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Anyone have the link to the page where you can put in your city and choose the model run output in the bar graph format in terms of precip type? Kind of confusing to describe, but hopefully someone can share that link with me as I am having trouble finding it... Thanks so much in advance! Here ya go! Just choose your run and model of choice. http://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?stn=Philadelphia&mod=ukmet&run=00&var=std〈=en&map=us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 18z ensembles look overall better. .50 contour just west of jersey shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 18z ensembles look overall better. .50 contour just west of jersey shore 7 members are wetter than the Op. A few significantly so. (Which does not necessarily guarantee that it's all snow.) http://raleighwx.ame...12zp72f096.html Likewise, at hour 78, we have 7 members that are deeper than the Op (probably the same 7 but I didn't bother to cross-check all of them). http://raleighwx.ame...rs/18zf078.html Without actually adding everything up, I do believe that shows a trend towards more moisture and a deeper system from 12z. But what do I care? I already punted last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 7 members are wetter than the Op. A few significantly so. (Which does not necessarily guarantee that it's all snow.) http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/12zp72f096.html Likewise, at hour 78, we have 7 members that are deeper than the Op (probably the same 7 but I didn't both to cross-check all of them). http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/18zf078.html Without actually adding everything up, I do believe that shows a trend towards more moisture and a deeper system from 12z. But what do I care? I already punted last night. IMO I feel our biggest worry is suppression over rain. Just give me 2-4, I don't need a blizzard. This type of storm today, reminds me of being a kid in the 90's. lol ugh 37 rain, congrats everyone lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 IMO I feel our biggest worry is suppression over rain. Just give me 2-4, I don't need a blizzard. This type of storm today, reminds me of being a kid in the 90's. lol ugh 37 rain, congrats everyone lol Yup. The 0z individual members will be interesting to see when they come in, but overall, I think the pattern favors an out-to-sea track of our potential storm over a Lakes Cutter due to the orientation of our blocking and the trouble we will (potentially) have getting our eastern US trough to amplify. Therefore, I don't think we have to worry about an inland rainy storm, but I do think a wide-right miss is at least a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thedude11 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Here ya go! Just choose your run and model of choice. http://meteocentre.c...〈=en&map=us Thanks buddy hope the 00z runs come in more snowier for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 0z nam is pretty flat fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 48 hr rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Am I hallucinating, or is the 0z GFS way more amplified than the 12z? 0z: http://www.instantwe...V_500mb_060.gif 12z: http://www.instantwe...V_500mb_060.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Man, check out hour 60: (12z first, 0z second) http://www.instantwe...V_500mb_072.gif http://www.instantwe...V_500mb_060.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Your links don't work. And is anybody else having trouble getting the GFS images. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Eh, it's all for naught. Low deepens more than the past few runs (down to 1000 mb at 72) but it's still not close enough to the coast. Looks like 0.10" or a few hundredths more for everyone except ACY and southern Del. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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