tombo82685 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 108-114 its bombing. offshore though. JUST south of the Benchmark.. eastern LI, SE NE coast getting mod hit... heaviest snows stays offshore. yea the precip we get isprobably northern stream related...they don't link up till offshore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thedude11 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Wow I am loving this potential.. So close to being an all out bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 ill let you know what occurs, but no pbp...i'll be on my phone weenie,,, You couldn't stay away for 1 run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 tta range, but 192 has a SECs look to it.. sw energy ejecting with the sSPlit flow PNA spike, 50-50 low... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 All snow for everyone means everyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 All snow for everyone means everyone? yes on euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 About 3-4" from lakehurst to belmar on the euro.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 GFS is roughly 0.3-0.5" region-wide, but with precip type issues. The northern stream system remains dominant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Not meaning to look past this storm (since it's still fantasy land), but if this one ends up developing late, it could act as a nice 50/50 for the following event which, to my untrained eye, seems to have a more favorable setup than even this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Not meaning to look past this storm (since it's still fantasy land), but if this one ends up developing late, it could act as a nice 50/50 for the following event which, to my untrained eye, seems to have a more favorable setup than even this one. Sigh...it seems we say this every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 euro is pretty much nothing on this event just some scattered snow showers...Models saw something tonight because they all trended flatter, even the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 If something doesn't change in the 24-36hrs I think you can write this one off and look towards the next storm threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 euro is pretty much nothing on this event just some scattered snow showers...Models saw something tonight because they all trended flatter, even the ensembles. The shortwave is closer to the West Coast so it could have been initialized a bit better, still not onshore though, should be for both runs tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 The shortwave is closer to the West Coast so it could have been initialized a bit better, still not onshore though, should be for both runs tomorrow. yea that could be it. I don't think this threat is done trending in either way yet. It wouldn't take much to get the precip into phl and nyc...boston though could have some trouble. It doesn't have to phase, you can still get precip from the northern stream energy as long as it doesn't dampen out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 euro is pretty much nothing on this event just some scattered snow showers...Models saw something tonight because they all trended flatter, even the ensembles. Quite a change from when the Euro had this on the radar initially going through the lakes. Still a big PNA switch outlooked so kind of surprised the solutions have become this subdued/suppressed, maybe the dull NAO will rule? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Quite a change from when the Euro had this on the radar initially going through the lakes. Still a big PNA switch outlooked so kind of surprised the solutions have become this subdued/suppressed, maybe the dull NAO will rule? i think its todays storm, which is flattening everything out. I still wouldn't rule out snow.I think the northern stream will deliver but i don't see a big storm right now. Maybe a 1-3 2-4 type thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Quite a change from when the Euro had this on the radar initially going through the lakes. Still a big PNA switch outlooked so kind of surprised the solutions have become this subdued/suppressed, maybe the dull NAO will rule? Ever since its upgrade I've noticed the Euro seems to like Great Lakes cutters in the Day 6 + range, even when the pattern in no way supports it. I recall a few instances in 09-10 and 10-11 in very hostile patterns for places like DTW/ORD to see snows it was pushing storms up there in the medium to long range. I'm not sure its partly due to its bias closing stuff off over AZ/CA/NM or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 12z GFS ticked back-up a bit vs 06z - 1-2". Given lack of organization would be happy with a light-moderate event., Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Ever since its upgrade I've noticed the Euro seems to like Great Lakes cutters in the Day 6 + range, even when the pattern in no way supports it. I recall a few instances in 09-10 and 10-11 in very hostile patterns for places like DTW/ORD to see snows it was pushing storms up there in the medium to long range. I'm not sure its partly due to its bias closing stuff off over AZ/CA/NM or not. Even this one today it had some lake solutions. Up to recently it hasn't mattered because we were too warm for snow as a ptype anyway. Gotta pay attention to this the rest of this winter. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 12z GFS, flat. NAM extended, notta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fwarder Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 12z GFS, flat. NAM extended, notta. if the backside energy a little stronger that should raise heights...no? http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs500mbvort078.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 New Euro snows nada for these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 New Euro snows nada for these parts. actually it shows about .10" for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I was going off the snow accum. maps so I guess if the Euro is right, snow showers. Better than nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I was going off the snow accum. maps so I guess if the Euro is right, snow showers. Better than nothing. i don't believe the snow maps are out yet for the euro.... maybe im mistaken. But there;s light qpf up to the poconos/scranton. Trough looked a little sharper on the euro and the low shifted further NW. baby step today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 actually it shows about .10" for you. everyone gets .1-.25, while around i95 its .25, then south of that its over .25 to as much as .5 near acy and coastal sections Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 everyone gets .1-.25, while around i95 its .25, then south of that its over .25 to as much as .5 near acy and coastal sections Sounds sort of like the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 The 12z runs in general were a small improvement. Trough was a little sharper. Good chance for at least a light event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 differences between the 12z ECM(left) and 0z ECM (right) Subtle differences in heights along the East coast which brought this a little more NW. 552 height line @ 0z was off of cape may, the 12z has it in Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fwarder Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 differences between the 12z ECM(left) and 0z ECM (right) Subtle differences in heights along the East coast which brought this a little more NW. 552 height line @ 0z was off of cape may, the 12z has it in Philly. the trailing energy is more consolidated and more focused on digging southward, you dont see that finger extending into illinois, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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