RevWarReenactor Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 It does not appear that we will see much of anything based on that radar (which overdoes precip anyway). So much for winter storm "Freyr" and the 3-6 inches forecast last night. This was a tough one to nail down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 mount holly THE 06Z GFS/NAM SHOW MORE OF A DRY SLOT OR QPF MINIMUM MOVING NEARLYRIGHT UP THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR, AND RADAR TRENDS SO FAR ARE SHOWING THIS AS THERE IS LITTLE TO OUR SOUTHWEST. WE THINK THIS WILL FILL IN SOME AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES CLOSER AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES. FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVERALL ESPECIALLY ALONG INTERSTATE 95 MAY BE ON THE HIGH SIDE, BUT FOR NOW WE MADE NO CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Current Wxsim with 6z data has light snow arriving around 8am with periods of snow - some moderate during the day - ending by 6pm with around 3 inches of total snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 It does not appear that we will see much of anything based on that radar (which overdoes precip anyway). So much for winter storm "Freyr" and the 3-6 inches forecast last night. This was a tough one to nail down. That's why I used that radar to prove the point. If that one shows crap, then you know the potential for crap is real. Still, I'm not going to call bust as it's premature to do so before the storm even starts, but it doesn't look good at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarthDoppler Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 That's why I used that radar to prove the point. If that one shows crap, then you know the potential for crap is real. Still, I'm not going to call bust as it's premature to do so before the storm even starts, but it doesn't look good at the moment. Eyeballing that dry slot on current radar, I'm really worried about where I am at (Eastern tip of Berks Co.) but I think you'll do ok up your way (Blue mountain on NW) It does appear to be filling in a little on the SE fringe so I still hold out hope for Reading to Allentown on NW as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Well looks like 6z RGEM scores one again. We just gotta hope the ULL fills in the gap between the two areas of precip. If the 6z NAM is wrong it will just go to show you how inconsistent a model the NAM is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Looking at radar and obs this morning. The primary is staying strong and the coastal is just starting to get going verifying recent model trends. Gotta go with the coating-2" for most of the area. My target is the 1.1" from the xmas eve storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Good steady light snow here in Lancaster...coating on ground. 28F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Hope you are right but that dreaded dry slot..... Current Wxsim with 6z data has light snow arriving around 8am with periods of snow - some moderate during the day - ending by 6pm with around 3 inches of total snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 mount holly http://forecast.weat...=1&highlight=on More mount holly HOWEVER, MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCEWANTS TO WARM THE AIRMASS MAINLY BETWEEN ABOUT 925 MB AND 950 MB. AN EXAMINATION OF THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWS THIS WARM LAYER IS NOT ALL THAT DEEP. THIS WILL LIKELY PLAY SOME HAVOC WITH THE PRECIPITATION BETWEEN RAIN AND SNOW AND ALSO HAS IMPLICATIONS ON OUR CURRENT HEADLINES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 The HRRR Model (which is pretty accurate with radar etc.) actually shows a pretty solid event! It represents the gap in the radar very well and then completely fills it in by 9-10am, then really gets going... Absolutely ripping just NW of the city (maybe including) by 12 http://rapidrefresh....&adtfn=1&wjet=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 The HRRR Model (which is pretty accurate with radar etc.) actually shows a pretty solid event! It represents the gap in the radar very well and then completely fills it in by 9-10am, then really gets going... Absolutely ripping just NW of the city (maybe including) by 12 http://rapidrefresh....&adtfn=1&wjet=1 Looking at the current radar obs it does look like some back building is trying to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 925mb plot. The primary is still strong and to our west. The coastal is just starting to take over. Warm air is being pulled north along the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 The HRRR Model (which is pretty accurate with radar etc.) actually shows a pretty solid event! It represents the gap in the radar very well and then completely fills it in by 9-10am, then really gets going... Absolutely ripping just NW of the city (maybe including) by 12 http://rapidrefresh....&adtfn=1&wjet=1 Do you have any confidence in the HRRR model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 The HRRR Model (which is pretty accurate with radar etc.) actually shows a pretty solid event! It represents the gap in the radar very well and then completely fills it in by 9-10am, then really gets going... Absolutely ripping just NW of the city (maybe including) by 12 http://rapidrefresh....&adtfn=1&wjet=1 How has the HRRR fared? It's relatively new, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 How has the HRRR fared? It's relatively new, right? Its very good with TSTMS in the summer, I've generally had mixed opinions on it with winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Its very good with TSTMS in the summer, I've generally had mixed opinions on it with winter weather. thnks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 The HRRR Model (which is pretty accurate with radar etc.) actually shows a pretty solid event! It represents the gap in the radar very well and then completely fills it in by 9-10am, then really gets going... Absolutely ripping just NW of the city (maybe including) by 12 http://rapidrefresh....&adtfn=1&wjet=1 Hardly "ripping"...maybe steady light snow....maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 hrrr is showing hardly any snow for a good chunk of upstate ny.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Surface map. Coastal just starting to take over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Hardly "ripping"...maybe steady light snow....maybe. Negative, just solely going off that model but its showing .5-1 inch an hr snows, thats hardly light snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Watch the stuff blooming to the sw of dc thats probably what comes our way later on. Should continue to develop as the coastal gets going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 We're gonna get fooked in DYL. Oh well, maybe the NYE system will be better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Watch the stuff blooming to the sw of dc thats probably what comes our way later on. Should continue to develop as the coastal gets going. Yup. Gotta hope that develops rapidly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Negative, just solely going off that model but its showing .5-1 inch an hr snows, thats hardly light snow HRRR has had a tendency to show a qpf bias sometimes...so taking that into account I'll ride with steady light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 HRRR has had a tendency to show a qpf bias sometimes...so taking that into account I'll ride with steady light snow. that wasn't his point though. It was that the model was showing heavy snow, which it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 FYI: HEAVY snow is 1/4 mile visibility and less. MODERATE snow is 1/2 mile visibility. If you can see more than a half mile from your house, it's light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 that wasn't his point though. It was that the model was showing heavy snow, which it is. It's under an inch in an hour...by definition, that's not heavy. Moderate snow on a model with a qpf bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 precip continues to blossom from dc to rishmond area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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