famartin Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Why are New Yorkers invading our thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Glenn abandoning any accumulations Philly s&e Couple minutes ago: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 How about we start here. Low temps gona bust by 5 degrees in a lot of areas Then u wake up to cloudy skies where's temps goin . And when precip moves in at minus 4 at 850. Where r ur temps going.? Then u go to 40 ? . Forecasted low in NYC 32. At 11 pm it's 30. Proforces to 28. 27 in colts neck. 30 laurel hollow. Not goin lower ? Same scenario as above. Will wait for euro. I don't c it The old ETA looks alot like the Euro so thats good news if you want snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I'll wait for the EC before changing to coating-2", but that's definitely on the table right now. Coating-2 is a good call for most of area except far N+W suburbs and SE NJ. Not that different from Xmas eve snow.in many areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 ^ out with the new in with the old? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Like I told him in the NYC forum "You seriously need to calm down" he is having a panic attack. This one stings. I guess mt holly drop wwa soon I hope you don't mean for the whole cwa. Why are New Yorkers invading our thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Why are New Yorkers invading our thread? You never post in the ny threads? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 You never post in the ny threads? I consider Red taggers to have free reign as the "experts" on the subject matter. I don't mind non-red taggers if they aren't coming over just to argue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Ray you can step back from the.... your model of choice composite radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Why are New Yorkers invading our thread? Because 925 is above zero to ewr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Because 925 is above zero to ewr. You're OK, you're at least in the PHI CWA. Really I'm asking why Zucker is here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 This is the right idea, actually looking at real conditions instead of hugging models. Low dewpoints, radiational cooling, and a low tracking to the southeast argue for a mostly snow event. True but ignores the primary tracking w of the apps that can pull in low-level warm air along the coastal plain if it is strong enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 mount holly AS FAR AS MODEL VERIFICATION GOES WITH THE PRECIPITATION AS OF00Z, THE ECMWF LOOKS TO HAVE DONE THE BEST JOB WITH BOTH THE AREA EXTENT AND AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAIN. POOREST JOB BY THE WRF-NMMB. THE SURFACE LOW LOOKS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE MODEL PROJECTION AND THE GFS`S DOUBLE BARREL LOW LOOK LOOKS THE BEST. SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY AND MOSTLY BELOW FREEZING. PHL FREEZING LEVEL AT AROUND 1K OFF OF ACARS AND BWI AROUND 1200 FT, EWR NEARLY COMPLETELY BELOW. THE PHL ACAR SOUNDING ALSO HAD DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OF 5-10C IN THE LOWEST 5K. WITH SOUNDINGS LIKE THAT EVAPORATION AL COOLING SHOULD HELP MOST PLACES START AS SNOW ON SATURDAY MORNING. THE QUESTION THEN BECOMES FOR PLACES AROUND THE I95 CORRIDOR AND SOUTHEAST HOW LONG BEFORE WARMER AIR ARRIVES. THE 00Z SOUNDING 925MB TEMPS UPWIND OF US ON AVERAGE WERE 1-2C COLDER THAN WHAT THE MODELS WERE FORECASTING AND 0-1C COLDER AT 850MB. ALL THINGS BEING EQUAL AND WITHOUT A STRONGER SYSTEM COMPENSATING FOR IT, WOULD THINK THE MODELS SHOULD BE COLDER WITH THE 00Z RUN OR AT LEAST COLDER THE FIRST HALF OF SATURDAY. AT 500MB THE GFS FCST VERIFIED THE BEST WHILE AT 250MB THE GFS AND ECMWF WERE CLOSE, THE NAM FAILED TO BIFURCATE THE STREAKS. THE LATEST SREF RUN HAVE TRENDED WETTER VS WHITER SOUTHEAST OF THE FALL LINE AND THIS SCENARIO IS LOOKING CLOSER TO THE LATE NOVEMBER EVENT WHERE ELEVATION WAS THE KEY FOR SNOW. ALBEIT THE SOUNDINGS WILL BE COLDER AND DRIER AT THE START EVERYWHERE. STILL TRYING TO WRAP OUR HEADS ON HOW THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE WARMING SO EFFICIENTLY WITHOUT A BIG WIND PUSH FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THE LACK OF A SURFACE HIGH (LIKE WE HAD NORTH OF NY STATE ON WEDNESDAY) MAY BE THE REASON. WE DID NOT CHANGE ANY OF THE PRESENT HEADLINES OR FORECAST PENDING THE COMPLETE SUITE OF SOUNDING RUNS, BUT BASED ON THE TREND WE ARE MOST CONFIDENT ABOUT THE CURRENT OUTCOME NORTHWEST OF THE FALL LINE AND IT GETS SHAKIER IN THE I95 CORRIDOR, CONFIDENCE GROWS AGAIN TOWARD THE COAST WHERE IT LOOKS LIKE A MAINLY RAIN EVENT. CURRENT TEMPS ARE HOLDING WELL AND NO BIG CHANGES WERE MADE THERE. WINDS WILL RELAX AND ONLY SOME CIRRUS WILL STOP US FROM RADIATING DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. WE HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER STAT GUIDANCE AND WE HAVE PUT THE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE WEAK RIDGE AXIS WILL THEN PASS BY TO THE NORTHEAST BY 06Z, AND THAT WILL ALLOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN CLOUDS TO OCCUR. WARM AIR ADVECTION ABOVE THE SURFACE WON`T BE SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO CAUSE MUCH OF AN OVERNIGHT RISE IN TEMPERATURES (PERHAPS A LITTLE SOUTH), BUT THE CLOUDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE A BIT DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT BETWEEN I295 AND I300 WILL ARRIVE OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES BY DAYBREAK, AND THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE SNOW EVERYWHERE IT FALLS. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS BY THE END OF THE FIRST PERIOD SOUTH AND WEST ARE NOT FORECAST TO REACH ONE-HALF INCH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 ray can step back from the ledge, euro is .25-.5 for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Would someone be kind enough to post the Euro QPF for MDT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Would someone be kind enough to post the Euro QPF for MDT? My sources says 0.30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Why are New Yorkers invading our thread? because they need to grasp onto anything now...they have been rallying around a bigger hit for the past two days wishing as hard as they could but now reality is setting in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 ray can step back from the ledge, euro is .25-.5 for all. Cold enough down this way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 ray can step back from the ledge, euro is .25-.5 for all. How about thv? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Thv is .29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Man, the euro is def stronger than the 12z run, but just not in time for us se pa folks. @24hrs (sun 0z, it's 988mbs), the12z had it 996. Def gets a stronger phase. Cape cashes in, not us... 6-10hrs slower and we'd be talking foot plus in some locations this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 EC is colder at the surface than the NAM and GFS, at least at TTN... which is saying something since the EC tends to be a smidge warm. I'll leave the 2-4 but I'm still nervous about it ending up 1-2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 ⛄ And 1 hour surface snowfall rates: I can almost bet that won't happen this far south lol. Fun to look at and I'm talking to myself at 4am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 6Z NAM cooled off noticeably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 6z gfs a lot drier: Between the 1st wave out in central Pa, and then the secondary taking over, we get screw jobbered, verbatim. I've been worried about this possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I think I'm un-enthused enough to lower expectations for the Trenton area down to a coating-2 inches. Just too much that can go wrong which makes anything more than 2 rather unrealistic. Even if QPF is higher, it looks like the warm air will cut ratios such that 2" is the most that can be hoped for... and if QPF is lower, a coating is probably all they'll get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I think I'm un-enthused enough to lower expectations for the Trenton area down to a coating-2 inches. Just too much that can go wrong which makes anything more than 2 rather unrealistic. Even if QPF is higher, it looks like the warm air will cut ratios such that 2" is the most that can be hoped for... and if QPF is lower, a coating is probably all they'll get. That's about where I'm heading at this point. C-2 along 95, 1-3 (probably optimistic) NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 6z gfs a lot drier: Between the 1st wave out in central Pa, and then the secondary taking over, we get screw jobbered, verbatim. I've been worried about this possibility. Current radar this morning is almost a duplicate of the 6z GFS image you posted. On first look, I'm wondering who gets shafted by that dry slot in Virginia... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 That radar shaft has Philly and the immediate NW burbs right in its sight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 That radar shaft has Philly and the immediate NW burbs right in its sight. The dryslot from Hades... Aimed perfectly up my way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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