famartin Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 i love how people think they are due for snow because they didn't get it when other places did. I thought that sometimes... when I was a kid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 At 0Z, IAD sounding had -1.9 at 925 and -1.3 at 850. NAM initialized with ~-1.5 at 925 and +0.1 at 850. At 0Z, WAL sounding had -0.1 at 925 and +2.6 at 850. NAM initialized with ~+0.5 at 925 and +2.0 at 850. lol can NCEP just stop running the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 lol can NCEP just stop running the NAM? I don't know the stats but those aren't excessive errors. The initialization is something like half first guess (previous model run at that time), half observation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 RGEM has cut back on precip. Distribution looks similar to 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 good news on the gfs its colder, bad news brings the dry slot right over the region. But everyone still picks up 1-3, maybe some spots tickle 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 RGEM has cut back on precip. Distribution looks similar to 18z NAM. Yeah, where it actually snows may be more in line for 1-3" tops. Still better than nothing. It's obvious mega storms that show up 5-7 days out just don't want to come to fruition this year. Take what we can get otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Gfs is pretty brutal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 good news on the gfs its colder, bad news brings the dry slot right over the region. But everyone still picks up 1-3, maybe some spots tickle 4 above 295 I can agree with this based on the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 GFS cuts back on qpf, "NAM middle finger syndrome" right up 95 N&W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 above 295 I can agree with this based on the gfs. lol i meant people who are in the wwa zone. Should have clarified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Even northwest of I-295 I'm skeptical about the GFS giving everyone 1-3... this sounding is 18Z by which time only 0.09" has fallen at TTN... that's probably a rain/snow mix, verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 2" snow cutoff on SV is generally 222 and NW. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 2" snow cutoff on SV is generally 222 and NW. lol the area prob doesn't even see .2 of qpf yet alone snow lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Even northwest of I-295 I'm skeptical about the GFS giving everyone 1-3... this sounding is 18Z by which time only 0.09" has fallen at TTN... that's probably a rain/snow mix, verbatim. hr 21 is worse for ttn, they go above at 925 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I'm really thinking people along i95 should only expect a coating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 While colder than NAM, GFS still changes over ilg, phl+ttn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I'm really thinking people along i95 should only expect a coating I'll wait for the EC before changing to coating-2", but that's definitely on the table right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Even seeing the rgem trend warmer from being a colder solution isn't a good sign. Also, the more amp'd up northern stream that trended on guidance today keeps that inland 850 low going a little longer. And while the closer "near phase" but not quite solution trending in guidance today, it kinda screws us by going warmer and a potential dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Even seeing the rgem trend warmer from being a colder solution isn't a good sign. Also, the more amp'd up northern stream that trended on guidance today keeps that inland 850 low going a little longer. And while the closer "near phase" but not quite solution trending in guidance today, it kinda screws us by going warmer and a potential dry slot. Lets move onto the next event then the 2nd and 3rd for us to finally score in on the fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Lets move onto the next event then the 2nd and 3rd for us to finally score in on the fun. We can't move on yet, Tom is still gonna get some snow up on Mt. Gilbert Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I'll wait for the EC before changing to coating-2", but that's definitely on the table right now. I hate to say it but the euro is my Mariano. If it spits the bit then I will give. I just don't c what the US models hav in front of me tonite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Glenn abandoning any accumulations Philly s&e Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 We can't move on yet, Tom is still gonna get some snow up on Mt. Gilbert lol that's right ray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Glenn abandoning any accumulations Philly s&e that would be a blessing, getting snow here while work doesn't get any so i don't have to go down and plow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 How about we start here. Low temps gona bust by 5 degrees in a lot of areas Then u wake up to cloudy skies where's temps goin . And when precip moves in at minus 4 at 850. Where r ur temps going.? Then u go to 40 ? . Forecasted low in NYC 32. At 11 pm it's 30. Proforces to 28. 27 in colts neck. 30 laurel hollow. Not goin lower ? Same scenario as above. Will wait for euro. I don't c it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 This one stings. I guess mt holly drop wwa soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 How about we start here. Low temps gona bust by 5 degrees in a lot of areas Then u wake up to cloudy skies where's temps goin . And when precip moves in at minus 4 at 850. Where r ur temps going.? Then u go to 40 ? . Forecasted low in NYC 32. At 11 pm it's 30. Proforces to 28. 27 in colts neck. 30 laurel hollow. Not goin lower ? Same scenario as above. Will wait for euro. I don't c it you forgot that when clouds move in over night, temps rise. Also, surface temp is one thing but the issue is above the surface. The problem layers are 925 down. Also, if you delay the onset of precip that allows your temp to warm more. Plus, add in a southerly wind till the coastal takes over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 How about we start here. Low temps gona bust by 5 degrees in a lot of areas Then u wake up to cloudy skies where's temps goin . And when precip moves in at minus 4 at 850. Where r ur temps going.? Then u go to 40 ? . Forecasted low in NYC 32. At 11 pm it's 30. Proforces to 28. 27 in colts neck. 30 laurel hollow. Not goin lower ? Same scenario as above. Will wait for euro. I don't c it This is the right idea, actually looking at real conditions instead of hugging models. Low dewpoints, radiational cooling, and a low tracking to the southeast argue for a mostly snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 This is the right idea, actually looking at real conditions instead of hugging models. Low dewpoints, radiational cooling, and a low tracking to the southeast argue for a mostly snow event. That's irrational thinking. Once clouds come in temps will rise and when the winds switch to the south you will see a bigger rise in the layers above the surface. Im not saying places away from the city have issues but around 95 does. Name me one good snow event where the winds were from the south and a dying storm primary, (granted its weak) in PA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 This one stings. I guess mt holly drop wwa soon I hope you don't mean for the whole cwa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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