LVblizzard Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 0z RAP BUFKIT for KPNE is literally all rain through 18z. 2 m temps are at 4.1 C and the freezing level is above 850 mb. Seems pretty suspect to me... The RAP's temperature forecast for Wednesday's storm busted terribly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 At 0Z, IAD sounding had -1.9 at 925 and -1.3 at 850. NAM initialized with ~-1.5 at 925 and +0.1 at 850. At 0Z, WAL sounding had -0.1 at 925 and +2.6 at 850. NAM initialized with ~+0.5 at 925 and +2.0 at 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 The RAP's temperature forecast for Wednesday's storm busted terribly. The RAP seems to have a horrible warm/west/north bias with systems beyond about 8 hours, I've seen it show precip making into the PHL/NYC metros at hour 15 before on coastal systems that are complete misses and hit only SE Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Rent a boot, lol, just kidding, no flights out there to take temp readings? I could be wrong (I'm not as familiar with ACARS data as I should be, since we don't really have any) but you only get data in the lower levels when flights are in the lower levels... i.e., landing. Usually planes don't land in the ocean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 At 0Z, IAD sounding had -1.9 at 925 and -1.3 at 850. NAM initialized with ~-1.5 at 925 and +0.1 at 850. At 0Z, WAL sounding had -0.1 at 925 and +2.6 at 850. NAM initialized with ~+0.5 at 925 and +2.0 at 850. so my thinking was right its running warmer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Not liking how the GFS brings a warm nose into extreme SE PA on the 18z run. Call me snake bitten, but i think Philly flirts with that line. timing doesn't help either. Saving grace could be the drier dews. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I could be wrong (I'm not as familiar with ACARS data as I should be, since we don't really have any) but you only get data in the lower levels when flights are in the lower levels... i.e., landing. Usually planes don't land in the ocean I felt like trying to lighten the mood here by throwing in some funny stuff try to get some people to laugh a bit, we need that, especailly with the stress level of some on here that need to be landed on by a ton of snow so they can go out and hurt themselves shoveling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I felt like trying to lighten the mood here by throwing in some funny stuff try to get some people to laugh a bit, we need that, especailly with the stress level of some on here that need to be landed on by a ton of snow so they can go out and hurt themselves shoveling. Well gee, I could've flown some people out here and had them shovel my driveway today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Well gee, I could've flown some people out here and had them shovel my driveway today Rub it in pal, rub it in.... !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Rub it in pal, rub it in.... !! Hey, I considered that to be the worst of both worlds... didn't get to see the storms, but still had to shovel the snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I shall hug my hourly weather graph with hopes it comes to fruition. May it's two inches coat this town in wintry white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 FWIW, the RPM model: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Here the NAM tomorrow afternoon at it's warmest.. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ETANE9_0z/f21.gif Rain/snow line across the Delaware Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 FWIW, the RPM model: LOL you and i share the zilch amount. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Latest Wxsim module with 18z GFS and 0z NAM for NW Chesco Light snow beginning around 530a Temp 27.0 Mod Snow at 9am - Temp 28.7 Heavy Snow at 12n - Temp 30.9 Snow tapering to flurries by 6pm Total snow accumulation 4" to 6" Another 1.2" of snow from 9pm NY eve thru late day NY day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 FWIW, the RPM model: lol 20-24? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Starts as snow down to about PHL in the morning.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 0z RGEM is now all rain for the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Final call: Philly 0.8" AC 0.2" Mt. Laurel 0.9" Brookhaven 2.0" Gilbertsville 3.5" Conchy 3.0" Allentown 5.0" Doylestown 4.0 Drexel Hill 1$ bob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 6 abc pushing the warm air through philly with mostly rain. 1-3" line central bucks/mont. and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 We have no precip type issues and good ratios in the Lehigh Valley, but I'm worried the dry slot will screw us over. If it doesn't, though...4+" seems likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 This rain/snow line looks familiar....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Final call: Philly 0.8" AC 0.2" Mt. Laurel 0.9" Brookhaven 2.0" Gilbertsville 3.5" Conchy 3.0" Allentown 5.0" Doylestown 4.0 Drexel Hill 1$ bob I'll take that for sure, but i know for sure its going to not turn out that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 We have no precip type issues and good ratios in the Lehigh Valley, but I'm worried the dry slot will screw us over. If it doesn't, though...4+" seems likely. Well, look at this way, you're like to see all snow.......whether it's 1.2 inches of 4.2 inches. Those along the coast would be happy with either of your outcomes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Well, look at this way, you're like to see all snow.......whether it's 1.2 inches of 4.2 inches. Those along the coast would be happy with either of your outcomes. But then again, earlier in November the coastal/Central NJ areas made out well with that storm and Lehigh Valley got absolutely NOTHING from that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 But then again, earlier in November the coastal/Central NJ areas made out well with that storm and Lehigh Valley got absolutely NOTHING from that one. totally different set up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 i love how people think they are due for snow because they didn't get it when other places did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 totally different set up Oh I know that. I thought we were comparing apples to apples as to WHO got snow this season so far between the two areas. Sorry for the confusion, super tired. Eyes peeled to radarlab Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 i love how people think they are due for snow because they didn't get it when other places did. lol @ 's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 i love how people think they are due for snow because they didn't get it when other places did. I never said anything like that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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