famartin Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 18Z GFS even changes TTN over to rain... NAM is just *slightly* colder so may stay snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 South Jersey weenies....disappointment warning been give... WERE THIS FORECASTER TO BE THE CONFIDENT TYPE, HE MIGHT HAVE TRIMMED OFF SOME OF THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE ADVISORY. HOWEVER, HE IS WELL AWARE OF THE PERISHABLE NATURE OF ANY ONE SNOWFALL FORECAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 I'm somewhere probably around 8" on the year so far, tomorrow should put me over a foot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 South Jersey weenies....disappointment warning been give... WERE THIS FORECASTER TO BE THE CONFIDENT TYPE, HE MIGHT HAVE TRIMMED OFF SOME OF THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE ADVISORY. HOWEVER, HE IS WELL AWARE OF THE PERISHABLE NATURE OF ANY ONE SNOWFALL FORECAST. Very true, no need to be bashing our NWS office (One of the best) over some very difficult R/S line forecasts. Our region is one of the most difficult areas in the country to predict these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 We can bash these idiots though right? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
noctilucent Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 RE...Winter Storm "Freyr".... I don't usually Facepalm anyone....but TWC.....this one is for YOU.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Can we stay on-topic? Sifting thru the other bashing was rough enough.....0Z should show I95 being the r/s line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Can we stay on-topic? Sifting thru the other bashing was rough enough.....0Z should show I95 being the r/s line. Gonna be a tough year Philly S&E. more classic feel to it, more north less south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WebBreaker63 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Very true, no need to be bashing our NWS office (One of the best) over some very difficult R/S line forecasts. Our region is one of the most difficult areas in the country to predict these. Concur - just look at the 07 November Nor'Easter - 12" in some parts of Jersey Coast (expecting less than an inch) I see the models and trust forecasters, But will always be wary of that element of surprise. - Plus it is just plain colder toward the end of Dec then early Nov - just sayin.... http://www.erh.noaa....s/11082012.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Concur - just look at the 07 November Nor'Easter - 12" in some parts of Jersey Coast (expecting less than an inch) I see the models and trust forecasters, But will always be wary of that element of surprise. - Plus it is just plain colder toward the end of Dec then early March - just sayin.... http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/storms/11082012.html Not with 50+ SST's. With SST's fifteen degrees cooler with a 5 - 10 mph easterly wind, March would be all snow in this setup. Might not stick too good with high sun angle but it would be snow. Just sayin'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Not looking too good for staying all frozen when even TWC is throwing you in the fryer. Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Not looking too good for staying all frozen when even TWC is throwing you in the fryer. Haha Lol Looking good in the Poconos. Needed this after last year. Tomorrow will be a fun time at the Dews. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WebBreaker63 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Not with 50+ SST's. With SST's fifteen degrees cooler with a 5 - 10 mph easterly wind, March would be all snow in this setup. Might not stick too good with high sun angle but it would be snow. Just sayin'. Then with all things said the outcome would be equal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Then with all things said the outcome would be equal I think our only hope at this point is for the low to tick NW and get us under the CCB. If one should develop, that's what gifted us in early Nov. I guess tomorrow and the last few events are pay back for Nov 7th CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Not like it matters but the RAP (RUC) is REALLY wet, but REALLY warm at 18 hrs. lol ---> http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/ruc/23/ruc_namer_018_700_rh_ht.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 The 00z upwind soundings are very dry, no problem starting as snow. Staying as snow, well I'd like to buy some elevation Pat instead of a vowel. Model fcst vs actual soundings, upwind 925mb temps are verifying on average 2C too warm while 850s around 1C too warm. GFS 500 mb looks the best of the three and the EC or GFS look better at 250mb. Toss the nam out, if it ends up being right for the wrong reason so be it. Good luck everyone. Gilbertsville 2 - Drexel Hill 0 - Mount Laurel -2.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 The 00z upwind soundings are very dry, no problem starting as snow. Staying as snow, well I'd like to buy some elevation Pat instead of a vowel. Model fcst vs actual soundings, upwind 925mb temps are verifying on average 2C too warm while 850s around 1C too warm. GFS 500 mb looks the best of the three and the EC or GFS look better at 250mb. Toss the nam out, if it ends up being right for the wrong reason so be it. Good luck everyone. Gilbertsville 2 - Drexel Hill 0 - Mount Laurel -2.. Great info. thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Lol Looking good in the Poconos. Needed this after last year. Tomorrow will be a fun time at the Dews. Indeed. I'm not complaining about doubling the current snowpack. I just hope the mountains dont dry this thing up too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 glad to hear the 925mb temps are verifying to warm. Hopefully it continues that way and the 95 and south and east crew can get into some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 The 00z upwind soundings are very dry, no problem starting as snow. Staying as snow, well I'd like to buy some elevation Pat instead of a vowel. Model fcst vs actual soundings, upwind 925mb temps are verifying on average 2C too warm while 850s around 1C too warm. GFS 500 mb looks the best of the three and the EC or GFS look better at 250mb. Toss the nam out, if it ends up being right for the wrong reason so be it. Good luck everyone. Gilbertsville 2 - Drexel Hill 0 - Mount Laurel -2.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 NAM continues to flood the column with above freezing temps. below 850mb during the course of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 The fact that he said he wanted elevation made me think it was the other way around, that actual 925 mb temps were 2 C warmer than modeled. But hey, I hope your interpretation is right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Like earlier NAMs appears a warm nose of air makes it into SE PA to somewhere near the PA turnpike, or a little further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 The fact that he said he wanted elevation made me think it was the other way around, that actual 925 mb temps were 2 C warmer than modeled. But hey, I hope your interpretation is right! Yea, i wasn't sure how he worded that. He said verifying model forecast to sounding saying the model forecasts were 2 degrees warmer? I dunno, guess tony will have to log back on and clarify. But the elevation aspect makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 0z RAP BUFKIT for KPNE is literally all rain through 18z. 2 m temps are at 4.1 C and the freezing level is above 850 mb. Seems pretty suspect to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 0z RAP BUFKIT for KPNE is literally all rain through 18z. 2 m temps are at 4.1 C and the freezing level is above 850 mb. Seems pretty suspect to me... It could be right, but i have followed that short terms model and its temp forecasts are bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Jeez the NAM is warm... wish we had soundings over the ocean to know if the source region is being modeled too warm or no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Jeez the NAM is warm... wish we had soundings over the ocean to know if the source region is being modeled too warm or no. Rent a boot, lol, just kidding, no flights out there to take temp readings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Jeez the NAM is warm... wish we had soundings over the ocean to know if the source region is being modeled too warm or no. its night and day between the nam and gfs on temperatures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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