phlwx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 weird slot? photoshop error? NAM middle finger of death lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I just miss the 3 to 5 zone - need to move 2 miles NW! 3 or 4 match up well with my current Wxsim forecast Here is the new storm total map that goes along with the 3:42 update from Mt. Holly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 NAM middle finger of death lol Pow! Either way, enjoy the winters scene tomorrow everyone. Hope for something decent. Good luck to everyone's forecasts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 NAM middle finger of death lol I think Tony is messing with me/us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 RGEM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 GFS similar to 12z 0.25-0.5 accross area. R/S line similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 RGEM: Where did you find the zoomed-in version of this product? If it were to verify, this would be a solid storm the city and the burbs. Tomorrow will really put the RGEM to the test, but I'm actually half writing off as too cold in my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 GFS similar to 12z 0.25-0.5 accross area. R/S line similar Looks wetter than past runs. 0.40" contour envelops Philly on InstantWeatherMaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Looks wetter than past runs. 0.40" contour envelops Philly on InstantWeatherMaps. It could be slightly wetter the 0.25-0.5 contour covers a wider area. Doesn't look any warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Keeps the qpf gap feature farther south than the 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I think Tony is messing with me/us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 gfs for kphl SAT 12Z 29-DEC 0.4 -2.3 1013 87 99 0.03 552 542 SAT 18Z 29-DEC 1.4 -1.9 1005 99 100 0.20 543 539 SUN 00Z 30-DEC -0.3 -3.4 1002 96 67 0.18 536 534 SUN 06Z 30-DEC -2.9 -6.9 1006 91 61 0.00 533 528 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 here is lakehurst SAT 06Z 29-DEC 0.0 -1.0 1018 78 20 0.00 557 543 SAT 12Z 29-DEC 1.5 -2.1 1013 78 99 0.02 553 542 SAT 18Z 29-DEC 4.4 -1.9 1004 94 99 0.10 544 541 SUN 00Z 30-DEC 1.4 -3.1 1000 99 54 0.32 536 536 SUN 06Z 30-DEC -1.6 -6.2 1004 92 60 0.01 533 529 I still think models may be overdoing the warmth closer to the coast, they did on nov 7th and xmas eve.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 thanks for the 4-6 tony lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 gfs is nice qpf, but changes over everyone from just south of the ptw-ukt line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 gfs is nice qpf, but changes over everyone from just south of the ptw-ukt line "the curse of tombo"-moves to the NW burbs and leaves his old crew in the cold rain and slop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 gfs is nice qpf, but changes over everyone from just south of the ptw-ukt line just looked at the sounding for wayne on twister data, probably snow sleet. 925mb area is just above so it would be marshmellows falling or snow sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 "the curse of tombo"-moves to the NW burbs and leaves his old crew in the cold rain and slop. lol hahaha...its not as bad as it originally appeared...its tiny area that just above frz once you get like in the west chester to wayne to willow grove area should be fine. Philly is snow to rain/sleet to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 sv snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Down to 32 here in freehold Mount holly WE WENT WITH THE COLDEST STAT GUIDANCE WE COULD FIND ONTEMPERATURES, BECAUSE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ABOVE THE SURFACE IS NOT TERRIBLY STRONG; EVAPORATIONAL AND SOME DYNAMIC COOLING CAN BE EXPECTED, AND IT WILL BE CLOUDY WITH PRECIPITATION WHEN THE SUN IS ABOUT AT ITS LOWEST ANGLE OF THE YEAR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 The RGEM has been pretty fantastic this year. It's also been pretty consistent with this storm, probably the most consistent. The NAM has been all over the place and the GFS seems in pretty good agreement with the RGEM. I think this storm will probably be an all or nothing for a lot of people, those who stay snow might be in the 3-5" range while those 10 miles away could be looking at a coating if that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 CBS3 is going with a Mr. Blutarksy for Philly. I think their human-made map has the city in C-1" and NW burbs in 1-3" but their model (I assume it's the WSI standard one) shows an epic dryslot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 18z GFS gives KPNE 0.45" 850's and 925's are at or below 0 C the entire time, and 2 m temps max out at 33 F but that's not good enough... the BUFKIT is mainly rain. Just 0.08" as snow then a changeover. It shows a 936 mb temp of 1.5 C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Yea I see a lot of forecast maps showing Philadelphia in the 2-5" range. Not a chance in hell if forecast temps are close to being right. This storm won't be remembered. Too many things could go wrong. From dry slot, to temps, to it developing too far east...bleh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caveman Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Yea I see a lot of forecast maps showing Philadelphia in the 2-5" range. Not a chance in hell if forecast temps are close to being right. This storm won't be remembered. Too many things could go wrong. From dry slot, to temps, to it developing too far east...bleh. A lot of uncertainty! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 The RGEM has been pretty fantastic this year. It's also been pretty consistent with this storm, probably the most consistent. The NAM has been all over the place and the GFS seems in pretty good agreement with the RGEM. I think this storm will probably be an all or nothing for a lot of people, those who stay snow might be in the 3-5" range while those 10 miles away could be looking at a coating if that. It's been wrong the past 2 storms for Philly. Both storms it said over 2" of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 It's been wrong the past 2 storms for Philly. Both storms it said over 2" of snow That was only one run for the second storm, at least. Most runs had PHL around 0.8". So the RGEM probably doesn't deserve the amount of praise some are giving it, but at the same time it's probably still better than the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 It's been wrong the past 2 storms for Philly. Both storms it said over 2" of snow I was referring to the larger storms. It was the only one that got the November storm right, and it performed very well on the Great Lakes storm last week; minus the exagerated QPF bullseyes, but that's a problem for all high-res models. We shall see. I do think the city might be a bit warmer then progged on the RGEM but otherwise the qpf output and rain/snow line looks reasonable to me. Gonna be a close one that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 It's been wrong the past 2 storms for Philly. Both storms it said over 2" of snow Lee got 1.8" in Brookhaven. Close enough! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted December 29, 2012 Share Posted December 29, 2012 Lee got 1.8" in Brookhaven. Close enough! i only have between 2 storms 1.25 inches and thats snow and sleet added together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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