Blizzard-on-GFS Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 NAM: That is DEFINITELY a middle finger lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Euro best, nam worst. How does the GEM/Canadian rate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Problem is 17 of the 21 sref members are now turning PHL over to rain, which really is not good for the I295 crowd. Gilbertsville FTW. I'll take a changeover if I can get a good hour of pouring snow before the change lol...rather that than watching barely an inch of snow accumulate over 8+ hours with no changeover... thanks for the info on both the SREF and the qpf verification down south..and thanks to both you and Mitchell for chiming in today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Euro best, nam worst. That is DEIFINTELY a middle finger lol I've been pretty distracted this week but I have been keeping up with the data. The key to our area and everyone north of us is when the mid level low forms to halt the "middle finger" from happening. The NAM holds onto the primary the longest with a track into NY state while the ECMWF transfers the quickest. The quicker the transfer, the more snow from PHL area northward. I have a feeling this "finger" is legitimate for someone who gets whiffed by the SW / DCB of the primary in the Mid Atlantic. Then again, it may not mean all the much because most of the snow would fall with the initial shot and then the DCB would end it as temps rise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Yeah my worst fear is coming to light. The overrunning precip dries up, coastal takes over and Philly misses out on most of everything. Still could get an inch or so if NAM is right, but that would suck for Philly, better for places NE. Dude, it's the NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I know it's pure speculation, but usually the upcoming 18z NAM run is the run where it goes crazy then dampers it back at 00z. You watch that happen. good call, it went crazy all right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 New WWA for immediate delco and Philly for snow up to 1"??? Ohh my lawdy.... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 342 PM EST FRI DEC 28 2012 DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ013-016>019-PAZ070-071-290900- /O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0010.121229T1100Z-121230T0000Z/ NEW CASTLE-CECIL-WESTERN MONMOUTH-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN- NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...FREEHOLD... PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN... MOUNT HOLLY...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA 342 PM EST FRI DEC 28 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY... * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO 1 INCH. * TIMING...SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA STARTING NEAR DAYBREAK IN NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND NORTHERN DELAWARE... THEN NORTHEASTWARD UP THE INTERSTATE 95 AND 295 CORRIDORS BY MID TO LATE MORNING. * IMPACTS...AREAS OF SLOWED TRAVEL DUE TO SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS THAT ARE NOT TREATED AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES... AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES... WHERE SLIPPERY SPOTS TEND TO DEVELOP FIRST. && $$ Meanwhile, gilbertsville is forecasted 3-5.. Must...:take...deep../breaths..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 That is DEFINITELY a middle finger lol Thinking it looks more like an index finger suggesting something about Ray's whereabouts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 As I said before this will be the year where areas like chester county get maybe 3 times as much snow as philly does. I still think phily will do better than an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Thinking it looks more like an index finger suggesting something about Ray's whereabouts. +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Here is the new storm total map that goes along with the 3:42 update from Mt. Holly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 How does the GEM/Canadian rate? Our graphics don't go that far southwest with the can rgem, the can ggem the axis of heavier pcpn is good, but its qpf gets too robust leaving Louisiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Kinda hard to forecast up to one inch on an advisory when your graphic says 1-2 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/StormTotalSnow/StormTotalSnowWebFcst.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 It's funny that NE Philly and mby are both gridded for 1-3", but Philly's WWA says "up to 1 inch" whereas mine says "3 to 5 inches". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I've been pretty distracted this week but I have been keeping up with the data. The key to our area and everyone north of us is when the mid level low forms to halt the "middle finger" from happening. The NAM holds onto the primary the longest with a track into NY state while the ECMWF transfers the quickest. The quicker the transfer, the more snow from PHL area northward. I have a feeling this "finger" is legitimate for someone who gets whiffed by the SW / DCB of the primary in the Mid Atlantic. Then again, it may not mean all the much because most of the snow would fall with the initial shot and then the DCB would end it as temps rise. Yeah the Euro was giving us the finger yesterday too. Its current 12z jet structure though is the best for snow vs gfs or nam, stronger, farther north than the latter ones would save the fall line and northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 RGEM a bit drier for us. We'd still do okay on it, but hopefully its not the trend to create that snow hole over the city during the transfer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 NWS fixed it: DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ013-016>019-PAZ070-071-290900- /O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0010.121229T1100Z-121230T0000Z/ NEW CASTLE-CECIL-WESTERN MONMOUTH-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN- NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...FREEHOLD... PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN... MOUNT HOLLY...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA 404 PM EST FRI DEC 28 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY... * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES. * TIMING...SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA STARTING NEAR DAYBREAK IN NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND NORTHERN DELAWARE... THEN NORTHEASTWARD UP THE INTERSTATE 95 AND 295 CORRIDORS BY MID TO LATE MORNING. * IMPACTS...AREAS OF SLOWED TRAVEL DUE TO SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS THAT ARE NOT TREATED AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES... AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES... WHERE SLIPPERY SPOTS TEND TO DEVELOP FIRST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Slightly altered call: The whole "17/21 SREF members change Philly over to rain" thing really was the deciding factor in pushing the higher totals back farther north/west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 RGEM a bit drier for us. We'd still do okay on it, but hopefully its not the trend to create that snow hole over the city during the transfer Looks OK to me over 0.4" near phl. R/S line on I-95 or just SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Thinking it looks more like an index finger suggesting something about Ray's whereabouts. I swear I'm in Elko, here's proof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Glenn has northern bucks about telford north in 3-5" range & North tip of Mont. Co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boreal Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I swear I'm in Elko, here's proof Photo of suddenly and rapidly melting snow? Proof enough for us! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 weird slot? photoshop error? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tcutter Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 has anyone seen the 15Z SREF???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 has anyone seen the 15Z SREF???? wet but warm, I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 wet but warm, I believe. ummm, nevermind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 has anyone seen the 15Z SREF???? No!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 HPC map and discussion. ...OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST... MEANWHILE...SNOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD WEST VIRGINIA WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EXPECTED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AFFECTING A GOOD PORTION OF THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. MOST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT TO MODERATE SIDE WITH THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF GREATER THAN 4 INCHES FROM JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA INTO PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK. THE 12Z RUNS THIS MORNING SHOW STRONGER NAM THAN EARLIER RUNS BUT THE LATEST VERSIONS OF THE GFS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT WITH THE ECMWF COMING AROUND MORE TO THE GFS SIDE OF THINGS. THE MODELS ARE ALL RELATIVELY SIMILAR WITH LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF THE SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY EVENING AND OFF NOVA SCOTIA BY SUNDAY MORNING. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL WILL EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES OF GREATER THAN 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. WHILE SOME MODELS/MODEL SYSTEMS ARE WETTER THAN OTHERS...THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS SEEMS TO INDICATE THAT MOST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OUTSIDE OF SE NEW ENGLAND WILL LIE BETWEEN .15 AND .50 INCHES MELTED. THE RAIN/SNOW BOUNDARY WAS DETERMINED BY CONSENSUS LOOKING AT THE 12Z NAM/GFS FOR MULTI LEVEL MODEL TEMPERATURES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 has anyone seen the 15Z SREF???? They are over on e-wall. 0.5 qpf in phl on average but most sref members have a changeover to rain in extreme SE Pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Just throwing it out for the sake of throwing things out there: SUNY's MM5 from 12z keeps everyone west of the NJTP frozen. Here's the total precip: I have no idea how well it performs really, but like I said, just throwing more data out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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