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Storm Chance 12/30/12


RowanBrandon

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Problem is 17 of the 21 sref members are now turning PHL over to rain, which really is not good for the I295 crowd. :( Gilbertsville FTW.

I'll take a changeover if I can get a good hour of pouring snow before the change lol...rather that than watching barely an inch of snow accumulate over 8+ hours with no changeover...

thanks for the info on both the SREF and the qpf verification down south..and thanks to both you and Mitchell for chiming in today.

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Euro best, nam worst.

That is DEIFINTELY a middle finger lol

I've been pretty distracted this week but I have been keeping up with the data. The key to our area and everyone north of us is when the mid level low forms to halt the "middle finger" from happening. The NAM holds onto the primary the longest with a track into NY state while the ECMWF transfers the quickest. The quicker the transfer, the more snow from PHL area northward. I have a feeling this "finger" is legitimate for someone who gets whiffed by the SW / DCB of the primary in the Mid Atlantic.

Then again, it may not mean all the much because most of the snow would fall with the initial shot and then the DCB would end it as temps rise.

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New WWA for immediate delco and Philly for snow up to 1"??? Ohh my lawdy....

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ

342 PM EST FRI DEC 28 2012

DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ013-016>019-PAZ070-071-290900-

/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0010.121229T1100Z-121230T0000Z/

NEW CASTLE-CECIL-WESTERN MONMOUTH-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-

NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...FREEHOLD...

PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...

MOUNT HOLLY...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA

342 PM EST FRI DEC 28 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM

EST SATURDAY...

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO 1 INCH.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA STARTING NEAR DAYBREAK

IN NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND NORTHERN DELAWARE... THEN

NORTHEASTWARD UP THE INTERSTATE 95 AND 295 CORRIDORS BY MID TO

LATE MORNING.

* IMPACTS...AREAS OF SLOWED TRAVEL DUE TO SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS

THAT ARE NOT TREATED AND REDUCED VISIBILITY.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW

WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED

ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES... AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS ON BRIDGES AND

OVERPASSES... WHERE SLIPPERY SPOTS TEND TO DEVELOP FIRST.

&&

$$

Meanwhile, gilbertsville is forecasted 3-5..

Must...:take...deep../breaths.....

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I've been pretty distracted this week but I have been keeping up with the data. The key to our area and everyone north of us is when the mid level low forms to halt the "middle finger" from happening. The NAM holds onto the primary the longest with a track into NY state while the ECMWF transfers the quickest. The quicker the transfer, the more snow from PHL area northward. I have a feeling this "finger" is legitimate for someone who gets whiffed by the SW / DCB of the primary in the Mid Atlantic.

Then again, it may not mean all the much because most of the snow would fall with the initial shot and then the DCB would end it as temps rise.

Yeah the Euro was giving us the finger yesterday too. Its current 12z jet structure though is the best for snow vs gfs or nam, stronger, farther north than the latter ones would save the fall line and northwest.

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NWS fixed it:

DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ013-016>019-PAZ070-071-290900-

/O.CON.KPHI.WW.Y.0010.121229T1100Z-121230T0000Z/

NEW CASTLE-CECIL-WESTERN MONMOUTH-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-

NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...FREEHOLD...

PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...

MOUNT HOLLY...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA

404 PM EST FRI DEC 28 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM

EST SATURDAY...

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...1 TO 2 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA STARTING NEAR DAYBREAK

IN NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND NORTHERN DELAWARE... THEN

NORTHEASTWARD UP THE INTERSTATE 95 AND 295 CORRIDORS BY MID TO

LATE MORNING.

* IMPACTS...AREAS OF SLOWED TRAVEL DUE TO SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS

THAT ARE NOT TREATED AND REDUCED VISIBILITY.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW

WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED

ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES... AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS ON BRIDGES AND

OVERPASSES... WHERE SLIPPERY SPOTS TEND TO DEVELOP FIRST.

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HPC map and discussion.

...OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST...

MEANWHILE...SNOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF THE

SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD WEST VIRGINIA WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW

EXPECTED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT AFFECTING A GOOD PORTION OF

THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY. MOST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO

BE ON THE LIGHT TO MODERATE SIDE WITH THE GREATEST LIKELIHOOD OF

GREATER THAN 4 INCHES FROM JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER ACROSS THE

MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA INTO PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW YORK.

THE 12Z RUNS THIS MORNING SHOW STRONGER NAM THAN EARLIER RUNS BUT

THE LATEST VERSIONS OF THE GFS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY CONSISTENT

WITH THE ECMWF COMING AROUND MORE TO THE GFS SIDE OF THINGS. THE

MODELS ARE ALL RELATIVELY SIMILAR WITH LOCATION AND INTENSITY OF

THE SURFACE LOW SOUTH OF SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND BY SATURDAY EVENING

AND OFF NOVA SCOTIA BY SUNDAY MORNING.

LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL WILL EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE

NORTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES

OF GREATER THAN 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. WHILE

SOME MODELS/MODEL SYSTEMS ARE WETTER THAN OTHERS...THE CONSENSUS

OF THE MODELS SEEMS TO INDICATE THAT MOST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS

OUTSIDE OF SE NEW ENGLAND WILL LIE BETWEEN .15 AND .50 INCHES

MELTED. THE RAIN/SNOW BOUNDARY WAS DETERMINED BY CONSENSUS LOOKING

AT THE 12Z NAM/GFS FOR MULTI LEVEL MODEL TEMPERATURES.

post-1201-0-42014600-1356730663_thumb.gi

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