JERSEYSNOWROB Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 A few thoughts 1. even though the model says rain the soundings are right on the fence for the 295/nj turnpike areas after about 16z, philly nw should be OK for mostly to all snow. Still would think a few 4's or maybe a 5 would be top totals regionwide. 2. computed ratios are down to 7:1 perhaps as low as 5:1 for philly and just southeast.However can go higher than 10:1 for northern NJ and perhaps ABE northwest as well. 3. southeast NJ and most of DE not along 1-95 should change to rain pretty quick this includes MIV and ACY. 4. Evaporational cooling should keep temperatures steady in the morning from the NJ turnpike to the northwest. Yup evaporational cooling should do it and the fact that it will be rapidly exploding off the coast and a quick mover should also help keep most of us frozen in my opinion, other than those SE areas mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Euros colder. Def all snow for Phl...limits any mixing issues in se nj .25+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Haha, oops. Bensalem, right near Neshaminy Mall. I guess I forgot to switch my location back for winter break. thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Euros colder. Def all snow for Phl...limits any mixing issues in se nj .25+ I cant trust u with that screen name Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I cant trust u with that screen name Lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 2-4 good call, Kasper, Lombardos crew all calling for that. Kasper's forecast has rain mixing and changing in south jersey and coast cutting back totals to 1-3, only calling 1-3 in north jersey...that should go over well with the NYC metro subforum Throw me in with the 2-4 crowd (for the Trenton area, anyway). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Tom - seen this too many times - the runs by 0z tonight will be dryer and the 925mb low will be a bit further south....I think everyone north and west of MIV see accumulating snow - although light. If in our area NW burbs we pick up a few inches we will be at over 10" for the season - not too shabby for a warm December. I also think we have some real potential with some overrunning next week to add at least a few more inches to the snowpack....now when was the last time we talked about a snowpack? There may be discussion about two different things. I don't think anyone is arguing that YOU have any p-type issues, but PHL could. Always beware the warm advection. I busted on Wednesday because of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jwilson Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Urban heat island, FTL. We metro suburbanites rarely stay cold enough when there is the threat of mixing. That said I don't think there is a real problem of mixing with the storm city and points west and north. If the coastal moves close enough maybe points east, but right now I don't see that happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Folks in the DC area are less concerned about the surface than people in here. Wouldn't lighter winds inhibit the WAA? Seems like winds for the most part remain calm during the storm. If we get an early start on the snow then that should help.....sun angle couldn't hardly be lower either so that should help. I'm more concerned the storm comes in drier than forecast than warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 by the way, 1 helluva AFD by our local NWS office. Undoubtelbly, one of the best around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I know it's pure speculation, but usually the upcoming 18z NAM run is the run where it goes crazy then dampers it back at 00z. You watch that happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I know it's pure speculation, but usually the upcoming 18z NAM run is the run where it goes crazy then dampers it back at 00z. Yes, it does seem like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Euro is a little warmish, makes it up to 4.4c at kblm and 3.9c at knel.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Euro is a little warmish, makes it up to 4.4c at kblm and 3.9c at knel.. Yes, as mentioned by others, SE of the Turnpike there appear to be major mixing/rain issues. In contrast, it only gets to 1.1C at TTN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 looking at the guidance I can see the city end as drizzle or light rain but there's still pretty solid and agreeable consensus on a two inch or so event in the city. Need the front end to be a bit more aggressive and heavy to get you more than 2 in the city but that's why the forecast (IMO) was 2-4 and not 3-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 by the way, 1 helluva AFD by our local NWS office. Undoubtelbly, one of the best around. Mount Holly WFO? 100% agree... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Yes, as mentioned by others, SE of the Turnpike there appear to be major mixing/rain issues. In contrast, it only gets to 1.1C at TTN. Yes, safe to say, I am telling my kids this will be a rain storm and not to get your hopes up for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 A few thoughts 1. even though the model says rain the soundings are right on the fence for the 295/nj turnpike areas after about 16z, philly nw should be OK for mostly to all snow. Still would think a few 4's or maybe a 5 would be top totals regionwide. 2. computed ratios are down to 7:1 perhaps as low as 5:1 for philly and just southeast.However can go higher than 10:1 for northern NJ and perhaps ABE northwest as well. 3. southeast NJ and most of DE not along 1-95 should change to rain pretty quick this includes MIV and ACY. 4. Evaporational cooling should keep temperatures steady in the morning from the NJ turnpike to the northwest. This, this, this....all of this. ...and I think it's important to note that even though there's a warmer tongue at 925 on the NAM and GFS for the middle/latter parts of the event at PHL...if it's precipitating steady enough, it just kills your ratio but it'll likely be snow to the surface since the warm layer is rather tiny. I think the 7:1, 6:1 type ratios work really well here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bilas Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Euro is a little warmish, makes it up to 4.4c at kblm and 3.9c at knel.. Euros colder. Def all snow for Phl...limits any mixing issues in se nj .25+ Yes, as mentioned by others, SE of the Turnpike there appear to be major mixing/rain issues. In contrast, it only gets to 1.1C at TTN. ok which is it colder or warmer lol guess I will err on the side of warmer.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Jeez, the NAM is such a god awful disaster of a model that it splits the two pieces of energy and is looking to dryslot I-95 and South Jersey on this run. Edit: PHL does get in on *some* precip but it's a bit less than the 12z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 and everybody is up in arms about what its showing for temps? weenies. Jeez, the NAM is such a god awful disaster of a model that it splits the two pieces of energy and is looking to dryslot I-95 and South Jersey on this run. Edit: PHL does get in on *some* precip but it's a bit less than the 12z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Yeah my worst fear is coming to light. The overrunning precip dries up, coastal takes over and Philly misses out on most of everything. Still could get an inch or so if NAM is right, but that would suck for Philly, better for places NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Jeez, the NAM is such a god awful disaster of a model that it splits the two pieces of energy and is looking to dryslot I-95 and South Jersey on this run. Edit: PHL does get in on *some* precip but it's a bit less than the 12z... so much for the "juicy" 18z It didn't look too bad frame by frame but somehow the 36hr total is under .25"? I have seen the idea of a qpf gap between the energy to the W and the coastal discussed multiple times across the forums...so just because I don't like it I can't right away dismiss it. Watch the thermal profiles come in better now, and Smokeater steal everyone's snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
noctilucent Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Jeez, the NAM is such a god awful disaster of a model that it splits the two pieces of energy Well in 1 or 2 of our 2010 storms it showed a "warm/dry " slot right over my area and it was the only model depicting this feature.....and it was RIGHT. That's exactly what happened. Agreed its a different weather regime now, but based on experience, I wouldn't dismiss it so quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 While the NAM is a little weaker/drier, the SREF mean is a little wetter bringing 0.5 to the Del River and 0.75 to NJ coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Yeah my worst fear is coming to light. The overrunning precip dries up, coastal takes over and Philly misses out on most of everything. Still could get an inch or so if NAM is right, but that would suck for Philly, better for places NE. The NAM is a POS. Best to ignore it. It can't maintain consistency for two frickin' runs in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 While the NAM is a little weaker/drier, the SREF mean is a little wetter bringing 0.5 to the Del River and 0.75 to NJ coast was just about to ask...if SREF was following suit I'd be more worried. Anybody know how any of the models are verifying so far for this across the deep south QPF amounts and placement wise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 While the NAM is a little weaker/drier, the SREF mean is a little wetter bringing 0.5 to the Del River and 0.75 to NJ coast Problem is 17 of the 21 sref members are now turning PHL over to rain, which really is not good for the I295 crowd. Gilbertsville FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 was just about to ask...if SREF was following suit I'd be more worried. Anybody know how any of the models are verifying so far for this across the deep south QPF amounts and placement wise? Euro best, nam worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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