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Storm Chance 12/30/12


RowanBrandon

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Tom - seen this too many times - the runs by 0z tonight will be dryer and the 925mb low will be a bit further south....I think everyone north and west of MIV see accumulating snow - although light. If in our area NW burbs we pick up a few inches we will be at over 10" for the season - not too shabby for a warm December. I also think we have some real potential with some overrunning next week to add at least a few more inches to the snowpack....now when was the last time we talked about a snowpack?

everyone should begin as snow, but the southerly winds will warm the bl for those along and south of the 925mb low

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Well, I hope you are right, but they have been trending warmer each run. I still like my location, but it is getting close.

You're fine.

Even I'm *probably* fine.

Center City is questionable. I-295 is :yikes:. But if you're half an hour or more north & west of the city, you have no reason to be concerned, imo.

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Tom - seen this too many times - the runs by 0z tonight will be dryer and the 925mb low will be a bit further south....I think everyone north and west of MIV see accumulating snow - although light. If in our area NW burbs we pick up a few inches we will be at over 10" for the season - not too shabby for a warm December. I also think we have some real potential with some overrunning next week to add at least a few more inches to the snowpack....now when was the last time we talked about a snowpack?

for phl and nearby burbs i can see that...but miv area is going to need a good shift south for them to be all snow.

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You're fine.

Even I'm *probably* fine.

Center City is questionable. I-295 is :yikes:. But if you're half an hour or more north & west of the city, you have no reason to be concerned, imo.

Yeah, I think so as well. I lived in Bensalem until I was married, so I know it is sometimes difficult to stay snow in these situations down in your neck of the woods. Up here, once north of Newtown, chances for all frozen go up quite a bit.

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Center City/295 will be fine. I don't get people freaking out like this.

i don't see how people are freaking out? You are interpreting what the models show. Are we suppose to ignore this and just say everyone gets snow? When they are showing the potential that place around the city may get something besides snow.

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i don't see how people are freaking out? You are interpreting what the models show. Are we suppose to ignore this and just say everyone gets snow? When they are showing the potential that place around the city may get something besides snow.

Sorry, "concerned." We'll be fine.

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Southern Cumberland, Cape May, Eastern Atlantic, extreme SE Burlington and Eastern Ocean counties may have mixing issues, but everyone else N & W of there should be ok.

May? Cape May won't even see snow IMO. I think you're underestimating the warmth being shown on the models. We'll see what happens.

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A few thoughts

1. even though the model says rain the soundings are right on the fence for the 295/nj turnpike areas after about 16z, philly nw should be OK for mostly to all snow. Still would think a few 4's or maybe a 5 would be top totals regionwide.

2. computed ratios are down to 7:1 perhaps as low as 5:1 for philly and just southeast.However can go higher than 10:1 for northern NJ and perhaps ABE northwest as well.

3. southeast NJ and most of DE not along 1-95 should change to rain pretty quick this includes MIV and ACY.

4. Evaporational cooling should keep temperatures steady in the morning from the NJ turnpike to the northwest.

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May? Cape May won't even see snow IMO. I think you're underestimating the warmth being shown on the models. We'll see what happens.

You are probably right and in fact, those counties i mentioned may or may not see a flake either. I'm just pointing out that everyone north and west of there should be ok.

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A few thoughts

1. even though the model says rain the soundings are right on the fence for the 295/nj turnpike areas after about 16z, philly nw should be OK for mostly to all snow. Still would think a few 4's or maybe a 5 would be top totals regionwide.

2. computed ratios are down to 7:1 perhaps as low as 5:1 for philly and just southeast.However can go higher than 10:1 for northern NJ and perhaps ABE northwest as well.

3. southeast NJ and most of DE not along 1-95 should change to rain pretty quick this includes MIV and ACY.

4. Evaporational cooling should keep temperatures steady in the morning from the NJ turnpike to the northwest.

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A few thoughts

1. even though the model says rain the soundings are right on the fence for the 295/nj turnpike areas after about 16z, philly nw should be OK for mostly to all snow. Still would think a few 4's or maybe a 5 would be top totals regionwide.

2. computed ratios are down to 7:1 perhaps as low as 5:1 for philly and just southeast.However can go higher than 10:1 for northern NJ and perhaps ABE northwest as well.

3. southeast NJ and most of DE not along 1-95 should change to rain pretty quick this includes MIV and ACY.

4. Evaporational cooling should keep temperatures steady in the morning from the NJ turnpike to the northwest.

How about Philly to the North and East? (Northern Ocean, Monmouth,).

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A few thoughts

1. even though the model says rain the soundings are right on the fence for the 295/nj turnpike areas after about 16z, philly nw should be OK for mostly to all snow. Still would think a few 4's or maybe a 5 would be top totals regionwide.

2. computed ratios are down to 7:1 perhaps as low as 5:1 for philly and just southeast.However can go higher than 10:1 for northern NJ and perhaps ABE northwest as well.

3. southeast NJ and most of DE not along 1-95 should change to rain pretty quick this includes MIV and ACY.

4. Evaporational cooling should keep temperatures steady in the morning from the NJ turnpike to the northwest.

Thanks for your input! Really reassuring to see you and Tony agree wrt precip type.

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