ChescoWx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Don't see any mixing issues from MIV north and west .... Yep....might even see mixing or rain up my way in DYL if these trends are real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 12z GEFS came in much wetter http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemblep12036.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Don't see any mixing issues from MIV north and west .... from milville?... i think its more right along the fall line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Thinking topic should be adjusted to "Storm Chance Likely 12/30 29/12"? Fully agree. I know Rowan said he didn't want to change it and jinx it, but I'm not superstitious in the least. I prefer accuracy over so-called luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Don't see any mixing issues from MIV north and west .... You can't be serious? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Fully agree. I know Rowan said he didn't want to change it and jinx it, but I'm not superstitious in the least. I prefer accuracy over so-called luck. no point really now, by tonight it will be an obs thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Yep....don't be fooled by a couple model runs...dry air mass etc will cool much more effectively than modeled You can't be serious? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 no point really now, by tonight it will be an obs thread Good point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Yep....don't be fooled by a couple model runs...dry air mass etc will cool much more effectively than modeled everyone should begin as snow, but the southerly winds will warm the bl for those along and south of the 925mb low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Yep....don't be fooled by a couple model runs...dry air mass etc will cool much more effectively than modeled Well, I hope you are right, but they have been trending warmer each run. I still like my location, but it is getting close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Tom - seen this too many times - the runs by 0z tonight will be dryer and the 925mb low will be a bit further south....I think everyone north and west of MIV see accumulating snow - although light. If in our area NW burbs we pick up a few inches we will be at over 10" for the season - not too shabby for a warm December. I also think we have some real potential with some overrunning next week to add at least a few more inches to the snowpack....now when was the last time we talked about a snowpack? everyone should begin as snow, but the southerly winds will warm the bl for those along and south of the 925mb low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Well, I hope you are right, but they have been trending warmer each run. I still like my location, but it is getting close. You're fine. Even I'm *probably* fine. Center City is questionable. I-295 is . But if you're half an hour or more north & west of the city, you have no reason to be concerned, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Tom - seen this too many times - the runs by 0z tonight will be dryer and the 925mb low will be a bit further south....I think everyone north and west of MIV see accumulating snow - although light. If in our area NW burbs we pick up a few inches we will be at over 10" for the season - not too shabby for a warm December. I also think we have some real potential with some overrunning next week to add at least a few more inches to the snowpack....now when was the last time we talked about a snowpack? for phl and nearby burbs i can see that...but miv area is going to need a good shift south for them to be all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 GEFS mean gets 0.50" to the Delaware River this run: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 You're fine. Even I'm *probably* fine. Center City is questionable. I-295 is . But if you're half an hour or more north & west of the city, you have no reason to be concerned, imo. Center City/295 will be fine. I don't get people freaking out like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 You're fine. Even I'm *probably* fine. Center City is questionable. I-295 is . But if you're half an hour or more north & west of the city, you have no reason to be concerned, imo. Yeah, I think so as well. I lived in Bensalem until I was married, so I know it is sometimes difficult to stay snow in these situations down in your neck of the woods. Up here, once north of Newtown, chances for all frozen go up quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Center City/295 will be fine. I don't get people freaking out like this. i don't see how people are freaking out? You are interpreting what the models show. Are we suppose to ignore this and just say everyone gets snow? When they are showing the potential that place around the city may get something besides snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 You're fine. Even I'm *probably* fine. Center City is questionable. I-295 is . But if you're half an hour or more north & west of the city, you have no reason to be concerned, imo. where are you? (don't see the precip making it to valpo) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 for phl and nearby burbs i can see that...but miv area is going to need a good shift south for them to be all snow. Southern Cumberland, Cape May, Eastern Atlantic, extreme SE Burlington and Eastern Ocean counties may have mixing issues, but everyone else N & W of there should be ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 i don't see how people are freaking out? You are interpreting what the models show. Are we suppose to ignore this and just say everyone gets snow? When they are showing the potential that place around the city may get something besides snow. Sorry, "concerned." We'll be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I wonder if the placement of the 925 low bing further north has something to do with the northern stream being more amplified on today's runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Southern Cumberland, Cape May, Eastern Atlantic, extreme SE Burlington and Eastern Ocean counties may have mixing issues, but everyone else N & W of there should be ok. May? Cape May won't even see snow IMO. I think you're underestimating the warmth being shown on the models. We'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 A few thoughts 1. even though the model says rain the soundings are right on the fence for the 295/nj turnpike areas after about 16z, philly nw should be OK for mostly to all snow. Still would think a few 4's or maybe a 5 would be top totals regionwide. 2. computed ratios are down to 7:1 perhaps as low as 5:1 for philly and just southeast.However can go higher than 10:1 for northern NJ and perhaps ABE northwest as well. 3. southeast NJ and most of DE not along 1-95 should change to rain pretty quick this includes MIV and ACY. 4. Evaporational cooling should keep temperatures steady in the morning from the NJ turnpike to the northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 May? Cape May won't even see snow IMO. I think you're underestimating the warmth being shown on the models. We'll see what happens. You are probably right and in fact, those counties i mentioned may or may not see a flake either. I'm just pointing out that everyone north and west of there should be ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 A few thoughts 1. even though the model says rain the soundings are right on the fence for the 295/nj turnpike areas after about 16z, philly nw should be OK for mostly to all snow. Still would think a few 4's or maybe a 5 would be top totals regionwide. 2. computed ratios are down to 7:1 perhaps as low as 5:1 for philly and just southeast.However can go higher than 10:1 for northern NJ and perhaps ABE northwest as well. 3. southeast NJ and most of DE not along 1-95 should change to rain pretty quick this includes MIV and ACY. 4. Evaporational cooling should keep temperatures steady in the morning from the NJ turnpike to the northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 A few thoughts 1. even though the model says rain the soundings are right on the fence for the 295/nj turnpike areas after about 16z, philly nw should be OK for mostly to all snow. Still would think a few 4's or maybe a 5 would be top totals regionwide. 2. computed ratios are down to 7:1 perhaps as low as 5:1 for philly and just southeast.However can go higher than 10:1 for northern NJ and perhaps ABE northwest as well. 3. southeast NJ and most of DE not along 1-95 should change to rain pretty quick this includes MIV and ACY. 4. Evaporational cooling should keep temperatures steady in the morning from the NJ turnpike to the northwest. How about Philly to the North and East? (Northern Ocean, Monmouth,). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 where are you? (don't see the precip making it to valpo) Haha, oops. Bensalem, right near Neshaminy Mall. I guess I forgot to switch my location back for winter break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 A few thoughts 1. even though the model says rain the soundings are right on the fence for the 295/nj turnpike areas after about 16z, philly nw should be OK for mostly to all snow. Still would think a few 4's or maybe a 5 would be top totals regionwide. 2. computed ratios are down to 7:1 perhaps as low as 5:1 for philly and just southeast.However can go higher than 10:1 for northern NJ and perhaps ABE northwest as well. 3. southeast NJ and most of DE not along 1-95 should change to rain pretty quick this includes MIV and ACY. 4. Evaporational cooling should keep temperatures steady in the morning from the NJ turnpike to the northwest. Thanks for your input! Really reassuring to see you and Tony agree wrt precip type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 EURO about the same here for QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Euro cooler, lighter on qpf..keeps .5" offshore.. general .25 for most the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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