dryslotted Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Sup, Valley Girl? like, totally... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 12z NAM BUFKIT KPNE: 0.22 SN, 0.26 RA KPHL: 0.24 SN, 0.23 RA KMIV: 0.42 RA KTTN: 0.45 SN, 0.06 ZR KILG: 0.20 SN, 0.23 RA KABE: 0.51 SN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 The whole "problem" with this latest version of the nam, it just goes isothermal at a drop of a hat at 32F through the lowest 3K it seems with every rain/snow situation which pretty much tells us nothing. No forecast sounding is that precise. The previous version used to nearly default to freezing rain all the time so I suppose this version is a ptype improvement. Its like when I was in college in the late 70s and HPC used to always put the rain/snow line with every event over dc...phl & nyc. I honestly don't see too many issues north and west of I295 with this. Its a fast mover, going to start early, the antecedent dew points are low enough and has been said if its a changeover its late and its at the end, 2-5 should cover much of the are pretty well. South and east of I295 have to wait and see what the GFS & Euro do. BTW I know who is doing the short term forecast today and I believe he is the most accurate snow forecaster in our office. I'm on swings, so I'll post the accum map on our FB page as soon as I can. thats good to know tony about the nam...im expecting a bullseye over gilbertsville on your map...give it the mt trappe affect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 12z NAM BUFKIT KPNE: 0.22 SN, 0.26 RA KPHL: 0.24 SN, 0.23 RA KMIV: 0.42 RA KTTN: 0.45 SN, 0.06 ZR KILG: 0.20 SN, 0.23 RA KABE: 0.51 SN Do you (or anyone) know if bufkit values are produced for KVAY? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 That rgem has to be atleast .3 for phl. Im sure ryan will say the exact. They get several hours of some decent snows Meteogram comes in at 1537. I'll let you know by 1538. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 sigh... It's never too early to introduce them to bitter disappointment, I suppose... On the upside, I can get an early start working with the older one on hitting out of the muddy rough... That's pretty much the only reason I didn't golf this morning, didn't want to get a face full of mud every time I hit a fat shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Do you (or anyone) know if bufkit values are produced for KVAY? They are not. BUFKIT sites are pretty few and far between (relatively speaking, anyway). Here's a map: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/bufkit/NEUS_NAM_12.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Do you (or anyone) know if bufkit values are produced for KVAY? We have WRI at work, but I'm home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 12z NAM BUFKIT KPNE: 0.22 SN, 0.26 RA KPHL: 0.24 SN, 0.23 RA KMIV: 0.42 RA KTTN: 0.45 SN, 0.06 ZR KILG: 0.20 SN, 0.23 RA KABE: 0.51 SN DYL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I think the RGEM is the most underrated model out there. It is VERY good with last second adjustments. Tonights 00z RGEM will tell the story of course. I remember in the NOV storm this year RGEM adjusted and showed Philly not getting snow. RGEM would be perfect for us (when it comes to this storm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 They are not. BUFKIT sites are pretty few and far between (relatively speaking, anyway). Here's a map: http://www.meteo.psu...EUS_NAM_12.html no DYL. oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 RGEM is right on 10 mm (0.40") for PHL. All snow. Weenie Suicide Watch cancelled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 DYL? Nope, sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 GFS looks very similar. Coastal may be slightly stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 GFS looks good for a general 3-4" snowfall in sepa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 the nam generally sucks...can we stop obsessing over it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 12Z GFS wetter....warmer slightly. Coastal nearer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 MAP Hopefully it will finally work out for Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Looks like R/S line close to I95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 good looking map! you must be consulting with your good buddy JB!! LOL MAP Hopefully it will finally work out for Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 If we can somehow stay all snow here in PHL will be a nice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 good looking map! you must be consulting with your good buddy JB!! LOL I haven't even seen Bastardi's map... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 pimpin' ain't easy out on the coastal plain, yo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 The whole "problem" with this latest version of the nam, it just goes isothermal at a drop of a hat at 32F through the lowest 3K it seems with every rain/snow situation which pretty much tells us nothing. No forecast sounding is that precise. The previous version used to nearly default to freezing rain all the time so I suppose this version is a ptype improvement. Its like when I was in college in the late 70s and HPC used to always put the rain/snow line with every event over dc...phl & nyc. I honestly don't see too many issues north and west of I295 with this. Its a fast mover, going to start early, the antecedent dew points are low enough and has been said if its a changeover its late and its at the end, 2-5 should cover much of the area pretty well. South and east of I295 have to wait and see what the GFS & Euro do. BTW I know who is doing the short term forecast today and I believe he is the most accurate snow forecaster in our office. I'm on swings, so I'll post the accum map on our FB page as soon as I can. Tony the snow/ice graphic for your office is pretty nice. Question though, any plans to add the mouse over effect where a user can see the zone forecast like Sterling's page (http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winterstorm/)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 i'll take my 2-4". next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 phl and immediate burbs go to rain on the gfs also. The 925mb low must be nudging slightly north each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 It looks like everyone from concordville on west stay snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Yep....might even see mixing or rain up my way in DYL if these trends are real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Thinking topic should be adjusted to "Storm Chance Likely 12/30 29/12"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Storm likely, rain chances?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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