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Storm Chance 12/30/12


RowanBrandon

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The whole "problem" with this latest version of the nam, it just goes isothermal at a drop of a hat at 32F through the lowest 3K it seems with every rain/snow situation which pretty much tells us nothing. No forecast sounding is that precise. The previous version used to nearly default to freezing rain all the time so I suppose this version is a ptype improvement. Its like when I was in college in the late 70s and HPC used to always put the rain/snow line with every event over dc...phl & nyc.

I honestly don't see too many issues north and west of I295 with this. Its a fast mover, going to start early, the antecedent dew points are low enough and has been said if its a changeover its late and its at the end, 2-5 should cover much of the are pretty well. South and east of I295 have to wait and see what the GFS & Euro do.

BTW I know who is doing the short term forecast today and I believe he is the most accurate snow forecaster in our office. I'm on swings, so I'll post the accum map on our FB page as soon as I can.

thats good to know tony about the nam...im expecting a bullseye over gilbertsville on your map...give it the mt trappe affect

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sigh... :( It's never too early to introduce them to bitter disappointment, I suppose...

On the upside, I can get an early start working with the older one on hitting out of the muddy rough... :frostymelt:

That's pretty much the only reason I didn't golf this morning, didn't want to get a face full of mud every time I hit a fat shot.

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The whole "problem" with this latest version of the nam, it just goes isothermal at a drop of a hat at 32F through the lowest 3K it seems with every rain/snow situation which pretty much tells us nothing. No forecast sounding is that precise. The previous version used to nearly default to freezing rain all the time so I suppose this version is a ptype improvement. Its like when I was in college in the late 70s and HPC used to always put the rain/snow line with every event over dc...phl & nyc.

I honestly don't see too many issues north and west of I295 with this. Its a fast mover, going to start early, the antecedent dew points are low enough and has been said if its a changeover its late and its at the end, 2-5 should cover much of the area pretty well. South and east of I295 have to wait and see what the GFS & Euro do.

BTW I know who is doing the short term forecast today and I believe he is the most accurate snow forecaster in our office. I'm on swings, so I'll post the accum map on our FB page as soon as I can.

Tony the snow/ice graphic for your office is pretty nice. Question though, any plans to add the mouse over effect where a user can see the zone forecast like Sterling's page (http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winterstorm/)?

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