chubbs Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 No major changes. A little stronger+warmer. Coastal development has a bigger impact on SE New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 It looks to my eyes as if the QPF is better overall. Possible warning snows for locations. Will need someone to pull the figures when they have time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Biggest impact is near the R/S line.need to check soundings for phl+ilg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 We would need this to develop along the nc coast and/or have a blocking mechanism for more than 4 inches out of this..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 phl switches to rain on this run with the warmer scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 NAM backs a funny looking little tongue of .5" from nj into quakertown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Typical NAM wet run, discount it. I've learned over the years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 You can see @ hr 33, a warm 925mb layer reach as far inland as the eastern/southern halves of chesco, montgo, bucks @ the height of the precip this run. Probably why its wetter. eeek... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Typical NAM wet run, discount it. I've learned over the years. [Weenie]but the overall trends have been wetter![/weenie] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 [Weenie]but the overall trends have been wetter![/weenie] Yup. Can't discount. Hope somehow the cold holds for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 You can see @ hr 33, a warm 925mb layer reach as far inland as the eastern/southern halves of chesco, montgo, bucks @ the height of the precip this run. Probably why its wetter. eeek... But couldn't the heavier precip keep the colmn cooler also off setting the warm push? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 You can see @ hr 33, a warm 925mb layer reach as far inland as the eastern/southern halves of chesco, montgo, bucks @ the height of the precip this run. Probably why its wetter. eeek... any frontogenic forcing/ enhancement before changeover i wonder....ill take my chances to lock in better qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 nam snow map is 4-6 inches from the central montco bucks and chesco on north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 But couldn't the heavier precip keep the colmn cooler also off setting the warm push? its like a catch 22 i believe.. heavier precip probably caused by the warm nose push..... so what wins? the cooling of the column or WAA? thats where you have to look at synoptics and meteorology , and not modelogy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 But couldn't the heavier precip keep the colmn cooler also off setting the warm push? its close in philly, just need a couple ticks cooler and they are snow...but the whole column from about 3500 ft down is abv freezing...granted it goes from 32-34 so it may be more of a mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Just for laughs, the 12z hi res nam is out, and is significantly wetter than the 6z hi res nam. Not that it means much though. I'm Just bored at work and posting anything and everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Would be similar to xmas eve storm near phl. Mostly snow but rain near the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 its like a catch 22 i believe.. heavier precip probably caused by the warm nose push..... so what wins? the cooling of the column or WAA? thats where you have to look at synoptics and meteorology , and not modelogy. We are near solar minimum right now with lesser effects from that, not sure that has any bearing on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Typical NAM wet run, discount it. I've learned over the years. If a picture paints a thousand words, this is the first 24 hours of the forecast, the highest wet bias of all of the models. The 12-36 hour forecast is not much better with the bias. Judging from the last month, above .25" best to go with a model consensus. BTW this is the northeast coast into New England, so its basically the phi/okx/box forecast area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 lol snj gets ~nothing this run... wtf-ever at this point, these marginal setups for jerz are not worth the time hand-wringing from run to run... There will be some disappointed toddlers around here if we go mix to rain, that's the only thing that bothers me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 u mean this one lol? Its also rain for everyone except lns ptw uk on north and west. Though everyone starts as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 ^^shhh, i only said "wetter" not "whiter". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 ^^shhh, i only said "wetter" not "whiter". the coastal isn't your issues its the northern stream energy. The 925mb low passes right over phl. So anyone near or south of the track has issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 12z rgem...solid run for phl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 lol snj gets ~nothing this run... wtf-ever at this point, these marginal setups for jerz are not worth the time hand-wringing from run to run... There will be some disappointed toddlers around here if we go mix to rain, that's the only thing that bothers me... They could go bicycle riding instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 That rgem has to be atleast .3 for phl. Im sure ryan will say the exact. They get several hours of some decent snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 lol snj gets ~nothing this run... wtf-ever at this point, these marginal setups for jerz are not worth the time hand-wringing from run to run... There will be some disappointed toddlers around here if we go mix to rain, that's the only thing that bothers me... Sup, Valley Girl? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 They could go bicycle riding instead. sigh... It's never too early to introduce them to bitter disappointment, I suppose... On the upside, I can get an early start working with the older one on hitting out of the muddy rough... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Looking at NAM soundings. mlv - all rain, ilg 2 and phl 2.5 before changeover, ttn 4.5 + some freezing rain at end, rdg 5" all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 That rgem has to be atleast .3 for phl. Im sure ryan will say the exact. They get several hours of some decent snows The whole "problem" with this latest version of the nam, it just goes isothermal at a drop of a hat at 32F through the lowest 3K it seems with every rain/snow situation which pretty much tells us nothing. No forecast sounding is that precise. The previous version used to nearly default to freezing rain all the time so I suppose this version is a ptype improvement. Its like when I was in college in the late 70s and HPC used to always put the rain/snow line with every event over dc...phl & nyc. I honestly don't see too many issues north and west of I295 with this. Its a fast mover, going to start early, the antecedent dew points are low enough and has been said if its a changeover its late and its at the end, 2-5 should cover much of the area pretty well. South and east of I295 have to wait and see what the GFS & Euro do. BTW I know who is doing the short term forecast today and I believe he is the most accurate snow forecaster in our office. I'm on swings, so I'll post the accum map on our FB page as soon as I can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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