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Storm Chance 12/30/12


RowanBrandon

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The RGEM/GGEM is only spitting out between 0.20" and 0.25". The UKMET says roughly 0.30" and the Euro 0.22", according to the poster above me.

NAM and GFS are both right around 0.40" but only the American guidance is that wet, so I'm nowhere near ready to hop on a 4" train yet.

2-4" city & north, 1-2" south still looks good at this point, imo.

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Pretty straightforward, as expected:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
349 AM EST FRI DEC 28 2012
NJZ001-007>010-012-015-PAZ054-055-060>062-101>106-282100-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0010.121229T1100Z-121230T0000Z/
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-MERCER-CARBON-
MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER-
WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...
FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...TRENTON...JIM THORPE...
STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON...
HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...WEST CHESTER...KENNET SQUARE...
COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN...NORRISTOWN...LANSDALE...CHALFONT...
PERKASIE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN
349 AM EST FRI DEC 28 2012
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EST
SATURDAY...
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM
EST SATURDAY.
* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES.
* TIMING...SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA STARTING NEAR DAYBREAK IN
SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, THEN NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
* IMPACTS...AREAS OF HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DUE TO SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS
THAT ARE NOT TREATED AND REDUCED VISIBILITY.
* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.
* VISIBILITIES...REDUCED TO AROUND ONE HALF OF A MILE AT TIMES.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL
CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND
LIMITED VISIBILITIES, AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. MOTORISTS
SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES, WHERE
SLIPPERY SPOTS TEND TO DEVELOP FIRST.
&&
$$

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ

349 AM EST FRI DEC 28 2012

DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ013-016>019-PAZ070-071-282100-

/O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0010.121229T1100Z-121230T0000Z/

NEW CASTLE-CECIL-WESTERN MONMOUTH-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-

NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...FREEHOLD...

PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN...

MOUNT HOLLY...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA

349 AM EST FRI DEC 28 2012

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EST

SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER

WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM

EST SATURDAY.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A

LITTLE RAIN MIXES IN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN

PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA, WHICH WOULD CUT DOWN ON THE

ACCUMULATIONS SOME.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA STARTING NEAR DAYBREAK IN

NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND NORTHERN DELAWARE, THEN NORTHEASTWARD

UP THE INTERSTATE 95 AND 295 CORRIDORS BY MID TO LATE MORNING.

* IMPACTS...AREAS OF SLOWED TRAVEL DUE TO SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS

THAT ARE NOT TREATED AND REDUCED VISIBILITY.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

* VISIBILITIES...REDUCED TO AROUND ONE HALF OF A MILE AT TIMES.

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it wouldn't shock me if things trended a little wetter at 12z runs. Seems like so far since 0z run the models have trended for an earlier cyclogenesis of the low.

Yeah...and it also wouldn't surprise if it amps a lil more (and warms a lil more). City still looks good but if I'm below 295 I'd be nervous.

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