tombo82685 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 phl frz level is at 1100 ft, but the air below its is pretty much isothermal, probably would still support snow in the city at the warmest period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Love how the models picking up on the coastal intensity. Every run since this morning has gotten better and better...let's keep it goin! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 GFS has 0.25-0.5 for area. A little wetter but in line with other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 28, 2012 Author Share Posted December 28, 2012 Told you the 0z runs would come in more amped... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 gfs precip is basically i78 across to abe then to mdt then to balt then down the ches bay is .3-.4 a little area of over .4 right over delco again lolz... Lee's antennas must be messing up the model grids Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Told you the 0z runs would come in more amped... Not helping us any down here though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Nice. I'll sleep well on the Nam and GFS. Better wake up to a Euro that agrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 28, 2012 Author Share Posted December 28, 2012 Not helping us any down here though. Of course it doesn't, but these situations usually get worse for us as the storm gets closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 snow map is 95 north and west to the pocs, mdt williamsport 3-4 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Of course it doesn't, but these situations usually get worse for us as the storm gets closer. the northern stream is whats killing you guys..it traverses right over philly. You guys are below it and get the southerly wind influx and warming of the bl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Not helping us any down here though. Hopefully increased intensity can help cool marginal areas down for all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 nice usa snow cover after this rolls through Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 nice usa snow cover after this rolls through Single digits for the new year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 snow map is 95 north and west to the pocs, mdt williamsport 3-4 inches did u post the snow map somewhere? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Single digits for the new year? i'd say good shot looking at the runs and some snow cover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Wow, ptype issues again per Rgem for Near i95. Only at the very end. Nothing to worry about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I think 95 N/W should be OK for all snow, S/E of 95 is another story. It all depends on energy transfer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 0z uk accumulated precip http://meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_00/accum/PA_000-072_0000.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 GEFS http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zgfsensemblep12048.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 euro has .22" at kphl.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 The RGEM/GGEM is only spitting out between 0.20" and 0.25". The UKMET says roughly 0.30" and the Euro 0.22", according to the poster above me. NAM and GFS are both right around 0.40" but only the American guidance is that wet, so I'm nowhere near ready to hop on a 4" train yet. 2-4" city & north, 1-2" south still looks good at this point, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Pretty straightforward, as expected: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 349 AM EST FRI DEC 28 2012 NJZ001-007>010-012-015-PAZ054-055-060>062-101>106-282100- /O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0010.121229T1100Z-121230T0000Z/ SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-MERCER-CARBON- MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-WESTERN CHESTER-EASTERN CHESTER- WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-LOWER BUCKS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN... FLEMINGTON...SOMERVILLE...NEW BRUNSWICK...TRENTON...JIM THORPE... STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...EASTON... HONEY BROOK...OXFORD...WEST CHESTER...KENNET SQUARE... COLLEGEVILLE...POTTSTOWN...NORRISTOWN...LANSDALE...CHALFONT... PERKASIE...MORRISVILLE...DOYLESTOWN 349 AM EST FRI DEC 28 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES. * TIMING...SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA STARTING NEAR DAYBREAK IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, THEN NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHERN NEW JERSEY BY MID TO LATE MORNING. * IMPACTS...AREAS OF HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DUE TO SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS THAT ARE NOT TREATED AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. * VISIBILITIES...REDUCED TO AROUND ONE HALF OF A MILE AT TIMES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES, AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES, WHERE SLIPPERY SPOTS TEND TO DEVELOP FIRST. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 349 AM EST FRI DEC 28 2012 DEZ001-MDZ008-NJZ013-016>019-PAZ070-071-282100- /O.NEW.KPHI.WW.Y.0010.121229T1100Z-121230T0000Z/ NEW CASTLE-CECIL-WESTERN MONMOUTH-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN- NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WILMINGTON...ELKTON...FREEHOLD... PENNSVILLE...GLASSBORO...CAMDEN...CHERRY HILL...MOORESTOWN... MOUNT HOLLY...MEDIA...PHILADELPHIA 349 AM EST FRI DEC 28 2012 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW, WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...2 TO 4 INCHES. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A LITTLE RAIN MIXES IN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA, WHICH WOULD CUT DOWN ON THE ACCUMULATIONS SOME. * TIMING...SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA STARTING NEAR DAYBREAK IN NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND AND NORTHERN DELAWARE, THEN NORTHEASTWARD UP THE INTERSTATE 95 AND 295 CORRIDORS BY MID TO LATE MORNING. * IMPACTS...AREAS OF SLOWED TRAVEL DUE TO SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS THAT ARE NOT TREATED AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. * VISIBILITIES...REDUCED TO AROUND ONE HALF OF A MILE AT TIMES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Mount holly snow map http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/StormTotalSnow/Day2Snow.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 GFS is stronger and slightly west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 GFS is stronger and slightly west. Stronger, yes. Not slightly west on track. 850 line is nudged west a bit but city remains snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Euro at the height of the event -- generally above the NJ Turnpike should be ok on this. If you're south of there you may have rain or a mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Stronger, yes. Not slightly west on track. 850 line is nudged west a bit but city remains snow. it wouldn't shock me if things trended a little wetter at 12z runs. Seems like so far since 0z run the models have trended for an earlier cyclogenesis of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 it wouldn't shock me if things trended a little wetter at 12z runs. Seems like so far since 0z run the models have trended for an earlier cyclogenesis of the low. Yeah...and it also wouldn't surprise if it amps a lil more (and warms a lil more). City still looks good but if I'm below 295 I'd be nervous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Precip could tick up a little but flow is too progressive for any major changes. I'd like to see the R/S line shift further SE. Too close for comfort currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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