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Storm Chance 12/30/12


RowanBrandon

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My call as of now:

KPHL: 1.9

KMIV: 0.9

KTTN (Ray's parents): 2.5

KILG: 1.6

KACY: 0.3

KABE: 2.8

KUKT: 3.2

me/Parsley/JCT: 2.5"

Paul (ChescoWx): 3.0

Mt. Trappe 23"

Tombo: 2.8"

Lol mt. Trappe.

2-4 makes sense for many areas. Been hard to crack 4"+ the past 2 years across the Delaware Valley.

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HPC map and discussion. Best chance of 4" to N+W

DAYS 2 AND 3...

...MID-ATLANTIC/OH VLY TO COASTAL NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND...

THE MODEL SPREAD CONCERNING THE SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE LIFTING OUT

OF THE LWR MS VLY AND ITS POSSIBLE PHASING ALONG THE MID-ATL

COASTLINE WITH A VIGOROUS NRN STREAM VORT SEEMS TO HAVE NARROWED

SOME WITH THE 12Z OPERATIONAL SUITE. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE

VERY AGREEABLE AND HAVE SUPPORT FROM THE EC MEAN ON A SRN STREAM

LOW SLIDING FROM SRN MS TO SRN GA BEFORE THE UPPER DYNAMICS

TRANSFER OFF THE COAST TO MEET THE NRN STREAM AND DEVELOP A NEW

AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATL COASTLINE. THIS SHOULD RESULT

ON TWO AREAS OF HEAVIER QPF ON SAT... ONE ALONG THE GULF/SOUTHEAST

COASTS AND ANOTHER ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS OR ALONG

THE MTN SPINE IN THE COLD SECTOR. THIS WOULD ALLOW .25 TO .50 INCH

QPF AMOUNTS IN THIS AREA ALONG WITH 4 AND 8 INCH HVY SNOW PROBS.

NOW IN QUESTION ON SAT IS WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE SETS UP AND

RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS TO SLICE THROUGH THE DC METRO AREA TO SRN

NJ... SO TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THIS LINE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS

FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS QUICK SYSTEM. BY SUN... THE

AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY OFF THE NERN SEABOARD...

AS IT APPEARS THE HIGHEST UVVS/DEFORMATION ZONE WILL REMAIN WELL

OFF THE COAST AND JUST CLIPS RI/ERN MA AND COASTAL MAINE. OVERALL

HPC FAVORED THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF HEAVILY BOTH DAYS FOR THE

INCREASINGLY CONFIDENT HEAVY SNOW PROBS.

post-1201-0-38916900-1356650205_thumb.gi

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