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Storm Chance 12/30/12


RowanBrandon

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From LC on fb

Concerning the Saturday storm in middle Appalachia and the Eastern Seaboard....I suspect the relatively fast motion will limit potential for snow. But the air is cold enough, and the presence of a decent moisture fetch and inverted trough would indicate that a moderate snowfall is likely along and about 250 miles north and west of a line from Bristol VA to Ocean City MD. Wind and cold will follow the passage of this feature, with additional snow showers and squalls through Sunday across much of the Northeast. Most accumulation totals will run in the 3 - 5 inch range, with a few higher spikes in SE PA....N MD....DE....NJ and LI NY.

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I also am liking the 3-5 inch range for the city I think there will be enough moisture and intensification of the low to Provide a few nice bands in the area.

Interesting to see the RPM Model had gone stronger then Afternoon Not sure what the exact total is but judging off the map it looks like it has 3-6 inches. Maybe someone can confirm this?

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Latest Wxsim timing etc. with 12z GFS and NAM data - for NW Chesco

Snow starts around dawn on Saturday temp (27.3)

Heavy Snow by 9am (28.9)

Snow at noon (31.7)

Snow ends by 4pm - total snow accumulation 3" to 5"

Another period of light snow on NY Eve with around 1" by midnight

daylight snow :)

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Looks like Mt Holly MAY be posting watches at 3:30 perhaps:

-- Changed Discussion --

DRAFT TO BE UPDATED AT 330 PM.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING...DIFFERING PRECIPITATION AMOUNT

SOLUTIONS BUT LITTLE DOUBT THAT IT WILL SNOW OVER MOST OF OUR

FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW... SINCE THE TIMING OF THE AMPLIFICATION

OF THE TROUGH WILL DICTATES DURATION AND AMOUNTS...WE ARE

FORECASTING A GENERAL 6 TO 12 HOUR EVENT WITH POTENTIAL WATCH AMOUNTS

IN SOUTHEAST PA...S NJ.. PORTIONS OF NE MD AND N DE.. 4 INCHES.

ADVISORY AMOUNTS OR AT LEAST NECESSARY ROAD TREATMENT AMOUNTS

EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. SNOW GROWTH MAY ALLOW AN INCH/HOUR FOR AN HOUR

OR TWO IN A FEW SPOTS OF THE WATCH AREA SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES

SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH IN NE MD AND DE TO PERMIT A BIT OF MELTING

ON PAVEMENT IN THE AFTERNOON.

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I also am liking the 3-5 inch range for the city I think there will be enough moisture and intensification of the low to Provide a few nice bands in the area.

Interesting to see the RPM Model had gone stronger then Afternoon Not sure what the exact total is but judging off the map it looks like it has 3-6 inches. Maybe someone can confirm this?

3-5" is too high for the city unless we get unexpected help from the coastal. Right now, almost all (if not all) of our precip comes from the northern piece, so if the Coastal deepens more than expected but in the same place as progged now, it would actually cut down on totals for the city because it would rob us of moisture in the energy transfer.

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Looks like Mt Holly MAY be posting watches at 3:30 perhaps:

-- Changed Discussion --

DRAFT TO BE UPDATED AT 330 PM.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING...DIFFERING PRECIPITATION AMOUNT

SOLUTIONS BUT LITTLE DOUBT THAT IT WILL SNOW OVER MOST OF OUR

FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW... SINCE THE TIMING OF THE AMPLIFICATION

OF THE TROUGH WILL DICTATES DURATION AND AMOUNTS...WE ARE

FORECASTING A GENERAL 6 TO 12 HOUR EVENT WITH POTENTIAL WATCH AMOUNTS

IN SOUTHEAST PA...S NJ.. PORTIONS OF NE MD AND N DE.. 4 INCHES.

ADVISORY AMOUNTS OR AT LEAST NECESSARY ROAD TREATMENT AMOUNTS

EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. SNOW GROWTH MAY ALLOW AN INCH/HOUR FOR AN HOUR

OR TWO IN A FEW SPOTS OF THE WATCH AREA SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES

SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH IN NE MD AND DE TO PERMIT A BIT OF MELTING

ON PAVEMENT IN THE AFTERNOON.

no watch as of now.

http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KPHI/1212272021.fxus61.html

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NEW CASTLE-CECIL-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX-

WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN-

NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE-

BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER-

EASTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS-

LOWER BUCKS-

338 PM EST THU DEC 27 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST

MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW

JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL

PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HAZARDOUS TRAVEL SHOULD DEVELOP SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO SNOW FOR

MUCH OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AS

WELL AS FAR NORTHERN DELAWARE. THE SNOW SHOULD BEGIN NEAR OR SHORTLY

AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY WITH SNOW TENDING TO DIMINISH DURING THE

AFTERNOON OR EVENING. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ON NON PAVED SURFACES

SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 5 INCHES OVER MOST OF THIS AREA...POSSIBLY

LESS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR PAVEMENTS WHERE DAYTIME

TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOVERING IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S.

AT THIS TIME WE THINK THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL LIE FROM

NEAR READING PENNSYLVANIA TO JUST NORTH OF TRENTON NEW JERSEY.

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