tombo82685 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 From LC on fb Concerning the Saturday storm in middle Appalachia and the Eastern Seaboard....I suspect the relatively fast motion will limit potential for snow. But the air is cold enough, and the presence of a decent moisture fetch and inverted trough would indicate that a moderate snowfall is likely along and about 250 miles north and west of a line from Bristol VA to Ocean City MD. Wind and cold will follow the passage of this feature, with additional snow showers and squalls through Sunday across much of the Northeast. Most accumulation totals will run in the 3 - 5 inch range, with a few higher spikes in SE PA....N MD....DE....NJ and LI NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Latest Wxsim timing etc. with 12z GFS and NAM data - for NW Chesco Snow starts around dawn on Saturday temp (27.3) Heavy Snow by 9am (28.9) Snow at noon (31.7) Snow ends by 4pm - total snow accumulation 3" to 5" Another period of light snow on NY Eve with around 1" by midnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I also am liking the 3-5 inch range for the city I think there will be enough moisture and intensification of the low to Provide a few nice bands in the area. Interesting to see the RPM Model had gone stronger then Afternoon Not sure what the exact total is but judging off the map it looks like it has 3-6 inches. Maybe someone can confirm this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I'm liking 1-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I'm liking 1-3". agreed, been saying that for a couple days 1-3 some spots tickle 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Latest Wxsim timing etc. with 12z GFS and NAM data - for NW Chesco Snow starts around dawn on Saturday temp (27.3) Heavy Snow by 9am (28.9) Snow at noon (31.7) Snow ends by 4pm - total snow accumulation 3" to 5" Another period of light snow on NY Eve with around 1" by midnight daylight snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I like 2-4" with 5" lollis. Western areas and the immediate coast 1-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Looks like Mt Holly MAY be posting watches at 3:30 perhaps: -- Changed Discussion -- DRAFT TO BE UPDATED AT 330 PM. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING...DIFFERING PRECIPITATION AMOUNT SOLUTIONS BUT LITTLE DOUBT THAT IT WILL SNOW OVER MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW... SINCE THE TIMING OF THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH WILL DICTATES DURATION AND AMOUNTS...WE ARE FORECASTING A GENERAL 6 TO 12 HOUR EVENT WITH POTENTIAL WATCH AMOUNTS IN SOUTHEAST PA...S NJ.. PORTIONS OF NE MD AND N DE.. 4 INCHES. ADVISORY AMOUNTS OR AT LEAST NECESSARY ROAD TREATMENT AMOUNTS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. SNOW GROWTH MAY ALLOW AN INCH/HOUR FOR AN HOUR OR TWO IN A FEW SPOTS OF THE WATCH AREA SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH IN NE MD AND DE TO PERMIT A BIT OF MELTING ON PAVEMENT IN THE AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I'll stick with 1-3" around the city unless something drastic changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I also am liking the 3-5 inch range for the city I think there will be enough moisture and intensification of the low to Provide a few nice bands in the area. Interesting to see the RPM Model had gone stronger then Afternoon Not sure what the exact total is but judging off the map it looks like it has 3-6 inches. Maybe someone can confirm this? 3-5" is too high for the city unless we get unexpected help from the coastal. Right now, almost all (if not all) of our precip comes from the northern piece, so if the Coastal deepens more than expected but in the same place as progged now, it would actually cut down on totals for the city because it would rob us of moisture in the energy transfer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Looks like Mt Holly MAY be posting watches at 3:30 perhaps: -- Changed Discussion -- DRAFT TO BE UPDATED AT 330 PM. SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING...DIFFERING PRECIPITATION AMOUNT SOLUTIONS BUT LITTLE DOUBT THAT IT WILL SNOW OVER MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW... SINCE THE TIMING OF THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE TROUGH WILL DICTATES DURATION AND AMOUNTS...WE ARE FORECASTING A GENERAL 6 TO 12 HOUR EVENT WITH POTENTIAL WATCH AMOUNTS IN SOUTHEAST PA...S NJ.. PORTIONS OF NE MD AND N DE.. 4 INCHES. ADVISORY AMOUNTS OR AT LEAST NECESSARY ROAD TREATMENT AMOUNTS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. SNOW GROWTH MAY ALLOW AN INCH/HOUR FOR AN HOUR OR TWO IN A FEW SPOTS OF THE WATCH AREA SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH IN NE MD AND DE TO PERMIT A BIT OF MELTING ON PAVEMENT IN THE AFTERNOON. no watch as of now. http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KPHI/1212272021.fxus61.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 aannnddddd perhaps not (3:21 update) -- Changed Discussion -- NO WINTER STORM WATCH AT THIS TIME FOR SATURDAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 agreed, been saying that for a couple days 1-3 some spots tickle 4 I'm going with 1-2 in the city with 2-4 north and west. It would be nice to have a nice moderate event that should stick around for a little while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 27, 2012 Author Share Posted December 27, 2012 And here comes the NAM to give the shaft to South Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
_AR_ Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I'll stick with 1-3" around the city unless something drastic changes. I think that is a good call for most of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 And here comes the NAM to give the shaft to South Jersey. Further west/warmer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 27, 2012 Author Share Posted December 27, 2012 Further west/warmer? Just an area of lesser precip. The heavier precip is all northern stream and it's west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 My call as of now: KPHL: 1.9 KMIV: 0.9 KTTN (Ray's parents): 2.5 KILG: 1.6 KACY: 0.3 KABE: 2.8 KUKT: 3.2 me/Parsley/JCT: 2.5" Paul (ChescoWx): 3.0 Mt. Trappe 23" Tombo: 2.8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 no watch as of now. http://kamala.cod.edu/offs/KPHI/1212272021.fxus61.html The watch criteria for eastern chester and montco is now 4",correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 you guys are too much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Anyone making a map should always use mt.trappe as a lolly location, FYI. You'll always verify,lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 NEW CASTLE-CECIL-SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-HUNTERDON-SOMERSET-MIDDLESEX- WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-MERCER-SALEM-GLOUCESTER-CAMDEN- NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON-OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON-CARBON-MONROE- BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-DELAWARE-PHILADELPHIA-WESTERN CHESTER- EASTERN CHESTER-WESTERN MONTGOMERY-EASTERN MONTGOMERY-UPPER BUCKS- LOWER BUCKS- 338 PM EST THU DEC 27 2012 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CENTRAL NEW JERSEY...NORTHERN NEW JERSEY...NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HAZARDOUS TRAVEL SHOULD DEVELOP SATURDAY MORNING DUE TO SNOW FOR MUCH OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AS WELL AS FAR NORTHERN DELAWARE. THE SNOW SHOULD BEGIN NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK SATURDAY WITH SNOW TENDING TO DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ON NON PAVED SURFACES SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 2 AND 5 INCHES OVER MOST OF THIS AREA...POSSIBLY LESS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR PAVEMENTS WHERE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOVERING IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S. AT THIS TIME WE THINK THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL LIE FROM NEAR READING PENNSYLVANIA TO JUST NORTH OF TRENTON NEW JERSEY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 18z nam was not a Qpf bomb lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 If the 0z suite comes in drier, I'm dropping totals from 1-3" to coating -1" for immediate Philly burbs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 The watch criteria for eastern chester and montco is now 4",correct? Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Mt. Holly. Looks good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Btw, NWS just released a briefing for Saturdays event: http://ow.ly/gogqy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Mt. Holly. Looks good to me. Looks like their not buying into too much of a contribution from the southern stream. SNJ would get the screw job on this one. I'll take my 4" in Mercer though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goombatommy Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Mt.Holly briefing package out http://www.erh.noaa....kages/index.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 ya, beat me to it! Deleted it already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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