Thunder Road Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 My first guess for Sat: I think the airport comes in under 2" but just about everyone else in the city gets above the mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Going more bearish for now... could definitely see myself pulling the southern edge further south if the surface temps look like they'll cooperate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 18Z GFS .25 area wide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Re-checking some data... probably too far north with the contours in southeast PA into NJ. Tomorrow's update will probably bring the 1-2" contour into Philly, but that 2-4" contour is still iffy around there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 On 12/27/2012 at 8:33 PM, phlwx said: My call as of now: KPHL: 1.9 KMIV: 0.9 KTTN (Ray's parents): 2.5 KILG: 1.6 KACY: 0.3 KABE: 2.8 KUKT: 3.2 me/Parsley/JCT: 2.5" Paul (ChescoWx): 3.0 Mt. Trappe 23" Tombo: 2.8" Lol mt. Trappe. 2-4 makes sense for many areas. Been hard to crack 4"+ the past 2 years across the Delaware Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 On 12/27/2012 at 8:33 PM, phlwx said: My call as of now: KPHL: 1.9 KMIV: 0.9 KTTN (Ray's parents): 2.5 KILG: 1.6 KACY: 0.3 KABE: 2.8 KUKT: 3.2 me/Parsley/JCT: 2.5" Paul (ChescoWx): 3.0 Mt. Trappe 23" Tombo: 2.8" Seems about right. RedSky and QTown (Andy) look good for the same amount as Tombo in Gilbertsville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I'll second the 2-4. This is a better organized system than the one that gave us 1-2 on xmas eve. Could tick up or down depending on model trends tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 HPC map and discussion. Best chance of 4" to N+W DAYS 2 AND 3... ...MID-ATLANTIC/OH VLY TO COASTAL NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND... THE MODEL SPREAD CONCERNING THE SRN STREAM SHORT WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE LWR MS VLY AND ITS POSSIBLE PHASING ALONG THE MID-ATL COASTLINE WITH A VIGOROUS NRN STREAM VORT SEEMS TO HAVE NARROWED SOME WITH THE 12Z OPERATIONAL SUITE. THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE VERY AGREEABLE AND HAVE SUPPORT FROM THE EC MEAN ON A SRN STREAM LOW SLIDING FROM SRN MS TO SRN GA BEFORE THE UPPER DYNAMICS TRANSFER OFF THE COAST TO MEET THE NRN STREAM AND DEVELOP A NEW AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATL COASTLINE. THIS SHOULD RESULT ON TWO AREAS OF HEAVIER QPF ON SAT... ONE ALONG THE GULF/SOUTHEAST COASTS AND ANOTHER ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS OR ALONG THE MTN SPINE IN THE COLD SECTOR. THIS WOULD ALLOW .25 TO .50 INCH QPF AMOUNTS IN THIS AREA ALONG WITH 4 AND 8 INCH HVY SNOW PROBS. NOW IN QUESTION ON SAT IS WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE SETS UP AND RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS TO SLICE THROUGH THE DC METRO AREA TO SRN NJ... SO TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THIS LINE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOW WITH THIS QUICK SYSTEM. BY SUN... THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY OFF THE NERN SEABOARD... AS IT APPEARS THE HIGHEST UVVS/DEFORMATION ZONE WILL REMAIN WELL OFF THE COAST AND JUST CLIPS RI/ERN MA AND COASTAL MAINE. OVERALL HPC FAVORED THE 12Z GFS/ECMWF HEAVILY BOTH DAYS FOR THE INCREASINGLY CONFIDENT HEAVY SNOW PROBS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thedude11 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 FOX 29 going with 1-3" for PHL and W sections of interior NJ,... with 2-4" to the N & W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 GEFS ANYONE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 On 12/27/2012 at 11:26 PM, irishbri74 said: GEFS ANYONE? What about it? Looks very similar to everything else right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 On 12/27/2012 at 11:26 PM, irishbri74 said: GEFS ANYONE? .25-.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I don't know how the folks at mt holly put up with the vast numbers of idiotic posts on its Facebook page. Weenies are FAR worse in the general public then here in this board, and thank God for that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 hr 48 rgem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 On 12/27/2012 at 11:56 PM, hazwoper said: I don't know how the folks at mt holly put up with the vast numbers of idiotic posts on its Facebook page. Weenies are FAR worse in the general public then here in this board, and thank God for that! I'm glad to know that we are dead wrong about 36 hours before the first snowflake even arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 28, 2012 Author Share Posted December 28, 2012 I wouldn't be surprised to see the 0z runs come in a bit more amped... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
readingaccount1 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 On 12/28/2012 at 12:21 AM, Rainshadow said: I'm glad to know that we are dead wrong about 36 hours before the first snowflake even arrives. I do not think that is what they meant. I think they meant to say that they commend you for fielding so many questions from the general public. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 On 12/27/2012 at 11:58 PM, tombo82685 said: hr 48 rgem Meteogram for Philly shows about 9 mm through 18z Sat with precip still falling. All snow too. Although the RGEM did verify a bit too cold with the storm yesterday, so I'd be cautious of the precip type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I think those saying 3-6" or 6"+ are soooo far from understanding meteorology. It is so painful to read, it really is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 On 12/28/2012 at 12:26 AM, RowanBrandon said: I wouldn't be surprised to see the 0z runs come in a bit more amped... Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 On 12/28/2012 at 12:32 AM, hazwoper said: I think those saying 3-6" or 6"+ are soooo far from understanding meteorology. It is so painful to read, it really is. It wouldn't take much for a 3-6" solution to verify...some areas on the GFS in the NW are progged for .25"+ QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Sorry, I meant those saying 3-6/6"+ at the coast implying that there will be a coastal storm along the coast. All models indicate that the transfer will be well east and will even rob moisture from the northern system the further NE you go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 The moisture transfer is going to crush a lot of souls. I guarantee that the hours leading up to storm people are gonna be going nuts because the radar looks amazing heading to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 On 12/28/2012 at 12:55 AM, Highzenberg said: The moisture transfer is going to crush a lot of souls. I guarantee that the hours leading up to storm people are gonna be going nuts because the radar looks amazing heading to them. and we should be use to this since its nothing new for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 28, 2012 Author Share Posted December 28, 2012 On 12/28/2012 at 12:26 AM, RowanBrandon said: I wouldn't be surprised to see the 0z runs come in a bit more amped... 0z NAM definitely came in more amped, but as a result got warmer for the borderline areas... 1/1 so far, let's see if the GFS follows suit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 it seems we could use a -nao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted December 28, 2012 Author Share Posted December 28, 2012 Precip totals: MIV: 0.42 PHL: 0.37 RDG: 0.27 ACY: 0.41 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 NAM+SREF are both 0.25-0.5" same as other models. NAM is a little wetter vs previous. Looks like R/S line gets close to I95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 On 12/28/2012 at 2:27 AM, RowanBrandon said: 0z NAM definitely came in more amped, but as a result got warmer for the borderline areas... 1/1 so far, let's see if the GFS follows suit... you start as snow then go to rain by hr 42, that's going off miv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 phl looks to be all snow, but just barely.. warmest is right around hr 42 where the freeze level is at 900 ft...but its not that much warmer from that point down. So, sounds like a wet snow maybe mixed with some rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.