SouthCoastMA Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Your last year's total is 60% more than mine....lol. We lucked out on that Jan 21st (which I was away for)..had about 10 or 11" with that. And another small storm that dropped 3 quick inches a few days prior. Other than that..dead ratter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Shanked big time. Progressive pattern with a reawakening Pacific jet. We may be in trouble but if we whiff this week and next we can at least start trotting out the futility comparisons.... We'll be fine...there's another threat 1/2-1/3 as the southwest cut-off ejects into a cold airmass, big overrunning threat. That might be the last threat in this series as the Pacific jet starts to increase as you say, but we have two more threats to track after the SW flow event/coastal tomorrow. I personally think the 1/2 overrunning is the big one to watch as a potential "pattern changer," briefly going back to mild following that storm, before another cold stretch sets in later in January. I already have 10" of snow on the season after last night, and I expect to get 2-4" tomorrow front-end and then a potential for a light event this weekend with a coastal graze. That brings me up to 15" before December is done, and my average is only 38". Not a bad start. Don't see what everyone is complaining about, especially in New England where tomorrow's storm will have a bigger front-end dump. If we get a major event on 1/2 as well, everyone is well above average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 We'll be fine...there's another threat 1/2-1/3 as the southwest cut-off ejects into a cold airmass, big overrunning threat. That might be the last threat in this series as the Pacific jet starts to increase as you say, but we have two more threats to track after the SW flow event/coastal tomorrow. I personally think the 1/2 overrunning is the big one to watch as a potential "pattern changer," briefly going back to mild following that storm, before another cold stretch sets in later in January. I already have 10" of snow on the season after last night, and I expect to get 2-4" tomorrow front-end and then a potential for a light event this weekend with a coastal graze. That brings me up to 15" before December is done, and my average is only 38". Not a bad start. Don't see what everyone is complaining about, especially in New England where tomorrow's storm will have a bigger front-end dump. If we get a major event on 1/2 as well, everyone is well above average. It's speculation at this point and may happen. At this moment, I have 5 inches on the year. For my location, I'm dead ratting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Shanked big time. Progressive pattern with a reawakening Pacific jet. We may be in trouble but if we whiff this week and next we can at least start trotting out the futility comparisons.... Lol... you know that's lurking in the back of my mind... back-to-back futility years would be perversely fascinating (if not alarming), but I'm not ready to go there yet. I really thought this one could amplify more than modeled and run up the coast. A couple gutter balls in Saki lanes, but I'm holding out until after tomorrow's storm clears to quit this one. Looks like next shot around Jan 3-4 next week... then things look increasingly zonal but hope I'm wrong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Would not write this off yet. I don't auto toss the GFS when inside 108-120 hours its showing something different than the Euro, the GFS success rate when it has a storm vs. no storm for other models inside Day 4 is actually not horrible. Again we may be dealing with a piece of energy that spends alot longer over northern Canada, that has proven a big problem for the models at times the last few winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 It's speculation at this point and may happen. At this moment, I have 5 inches on the year. For my location, I'm dead ratting. Boston averages about 7.5" of snow in December according to the NWS website. Therefore, you probably average around 10"....you have half of that with a big storm coming tomorrow and another storm possible on Saturday. Don't see what the problem is. None of us average that much snow in December. Personally, I think you'll get the 5" tomorrow to bring you to your average for the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 pattern change??? the pattern has just begun to get interesting again lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 pattern change??? the pattern has just begun to get interesting again lol There are some signs of the West Coast ridge breaking down, but remember models like to change patterns too early. What they show changing around January 6th may not really occur til January 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Boston averages about 7.5" of snow in December according to the NWS website. Therefore, you probably average around 10"....you have half of that with a big storm coming tomorrow and another storm possible on Saturday. Don't see what the problem is. None of us average that much snow in December. Personally, I think you'll get the 5" tomorrow to bring you to your average for the month. If I get several inches tomorrow night (which I agree is quite possible), I'll approach it differently. For now though, most things have broken badly save for the wonderful 11/7 event and the birthday surprisingly robust 12/1. So we'll see. I'm not sure what to make of tomorrow but I acknowledge at least the antecedent is not awful vs most situations lately. So several inches quite possible and then we'll see. But it's been a rough road with a sloppy 2 inches 10/30/11 and not much since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 If I get several inches tomorrow night (which I agree is quite possible), I'll approach it differently. For now though, most things have broken badly save for the wonderful 11/7 event and the birthday surprisingly robust 12/1. So we'll see. I'm not sure what to make of tomorrow but I acknowledge at least the antecedent is not awful vs most situations lately. So several inches quite possible and then we'll see. But it's been a rough road with a sloppy 2 inches 10/30/11 and not much since. Fooked again, Jerry. Enjoy this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Still looks like a nice 3-6 inch snowfall for SNE Saturday. Don't think anyone can argue with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Still looks like a nice 3-6 inch snowfall for SNE Saturday. Don't think anyone can argue with that I don't know, it's too progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I'm preparing for some type of snowfall here on Cape Cod, MA, should at least get the normal Northeasterly to northerly OES winds and get some snow out of it. It sucks when the models don't show you what you want, especially when you go out on a limb with a guess, but honestly I think we get a big storm out of this one, that ridge out west will over perform. I think our main problem is the northern stream disturbance getting too fast ahead of the southern stream system and then gets shreaded by the confluence zone caused by our 26-27th friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Scot, we have had storms in the progressive style northern jet stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 I don't know, it's too progressive. Gefs still have some hits. I wouldn't give up on this . Remindse a little of Boxing Day 2010 but farther east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Gefs still have some hits. I wouldn't give up on this . Remindse a little of Boxing Day 2010 but farther east Just about too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Scot, we have had storms in the progressive style northern jet stream. True, but it also needs to be timed well because even the boundary layer on the Cape may be borderline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 This threat is toast. Indiv GFS members showing anything are less than yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Give up if you want. Still potential and promise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Give up if you want. Still potential and promise Guidance has been trending away from an event. Especially out your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Lol if we miss this one. We'll probably get a pity 2-4" event in a couple weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Guidance has been trending away from an event. Especially out your way. Who cares, Meteorology not guidance ology Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Meteorology says that trough axis is far enough west where this storm can come west, at least in my untrained eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 This Megastorm is going to settle the Atmosphere, Sat looks to be maybe a chance at some WAA but not a storm. I like the Tues-Thursday time slot next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 nvm its a transient trough. So axis is really not the problem, that kicker arctic disturbance is the problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 Meteorology says that trough axis is far enough west where this storm can come west, at least in my untrained eyes. You meant East and this is correct. Meteorologically, this system cannot amplify close to the coast. Ridging is too far E over Montana. If it were over Idaho, this threat is a whole different ballgame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 This threat is toast. Indiv GFS members showing anything are less than yesterday. Weren't you the one making fun of people with premature gronk spikes? This seems to be exactly that with a threat around 100 hours away. Sure this one is a bit of a long shot at this point but I wouldn't call it "toast" yet. A bit more amplification of the west coast ridge we're back in business again. Not a lot of change needed to bring this storm back into a major coastal, and lots of time for the change to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 looking like the 12z GFS should be at least better than 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 indeed sharper trof results in shift of 100+ miles west...hopefully the ensembles will follow suit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 26, 2012 Share Posted December 26, 2012 still meh imo 12z 06z 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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