Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 28, 2012 Author Share Posted December 28, 2012 I think we need to keep the good juju going. Should I start a new thread this one is pushing 50 pages? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 TWC should just name this storm Matt Noyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 28, 2012 Author Share Posted December 28, 2012 I just started another one. I'm superstitious. Let's keep the good times going: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/38562-1230-coastal-part-ii-snowing-our-way-into-nye/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Off topic but who's been to OT? For WOTY one of the votes is CTBlizz vs. the entire NE subforum lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 gun-to-...4" imby was thinking 5 ish for mby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 TWC should just name this storm Matt Noyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 TWC should just name this storm Matt Noyes. Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Regal is very good. Zaftig is meh to me but I've been going since it opened about 12-15 years ago. 3-6 for mby is a good call I think. Mpm...yes you're 0.25+. Thanks, Jerry. You've got this one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Can you imagine the unmitigated apoplexy if this thing gets closer yet in the runs, then still ends up verifying S ? Prediction: no one in the 48 pages of this thread has offered any insight that hearkens to something like that taking place; what is fascinating from a purely sociological perspective, a "horror" like that is just as on the table as a greater impact scenario. But when the collective brain is so predisposed to a positive outcome, less 'the outcome' per se, ...well, you get what you paid for. The 18z runs come out. The NAM blankets the .75" QPF line from HFD - BED, and brings over an inch to PVD. Warnings go up on the 5 o'clock - a state of ecstatic bi-polar gaiety strikes as common enemies give hugs. The 00z backs off a little, "Meh, too much antecedent trend to believe it - 'sides, it only backed off 2 tenths unilaterally, so it must just be noise. Right Will?" "It's alright, son - there's no monster under your bed; go back to sleep." Zomb! Snow-lit starlet looks out his or her window 2 hours later, and the flurries and light snow taunt ends at PVD; everyone's partly cloudy with moon and stars by 3. That's the trouble with trend. Trending one way still mean discontinuity. We assume trending a given direction to be positive or negative, and by and large, that's the course of least regret. But, discontinuity means uncertainty. We can engineer our way toward delusion of despair here, but just remember, there really isn't any products out there - at least that I have seen - indicating 10" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Can you imagine the unmitigated apoplexy if this thing gets closer yet in the runs, then still ends up verifying S ? Prediction: no one in the 48 pages of this thread has offered any insight that hearkens to something like that taking place; what is fascinating from a purely sociological perspective, a "horror" like that is just as on the table as a greater impact scenario. But when the collective brain is so predisposed to a positive outcome, less 'the outcome' per se, ...well, you get what you paid for. The 18z runs come out. The NAM blankets the .75" QPF line from HFD - BED, and brings over an inch to PVD. Warnings go up on the 5 o'clock - a state of ecstatic bi-polar gaiety strikes as common enemies give hugs. The 00z backs off a little, "Meh, too much antecedent trend to believe it - 'sides, it only backed of 2 tenths unilaterally, so it must just be noise. Right Will?" Zomb! Snow-lit starlet looks out his or her window at 9pm and the flurries and light snow taunt ends at PVD; everyone's partly cloudy with moon and stars by 3. That's the trouble with trend. Trending one way still mean discontinuity. We assume trending a given direction to be positive or negative, and by and large, that's the course of least regret. But, discontinuity means uncertainty. We can engineer our way toward delusion of despair here, but just remember, there really isn't any products out there - at least that I have seen - indicating 10" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 whatever, it's on you guys, not me. I am just trying to throw a modicom of objectivity into the fray, so if something bad happens folks' are mentally (and emotionally) prepared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 whatever, it's on you guys, not me. I am just trying to throw a modicom of objectivity into the fray, so if something bad happens folks' are mentally (and emotionally) prepared. LOL, I know. You're point is valid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Why? Matt Noyes has been calling this for over a week, even with little to no model support. When Matt strongly latches onto something so early, he often seems to be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 whatever, it's on you guys, not me. I am just trying to throw a modicom of objectivity into the fray, so if something bad happens folks' are mentally (and emotionally) prepared. You do this all the time. Your realism and detail scares me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Matt Noyes has been calling this for over a week, even with little to no model support. When Matt strongly latches onto something that early, he often seems to be correct. This Storm has been on models for over a week too. Nothing special there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 whatever, it's on you guys, not me. I am just trying to throw a modicom of objectivity into the fray, so if something bad happens folks' are mentally (and emotionally) prepared. I think everyone knows even if they don't say it that it could turn to garbage, or at least most do. It's just more fun much of the time to go nuts with the possibilities, especially in areas that have gone for a long while without good snowfall, than to think heavily about how it could crap out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 This Storm has been on models for over a week too. Nothing special there. Not this far NW though on most runs. Still time for things to change obviously, but most of us weren't predicting 12z type outcomes all week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Scott N needs some sleep...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 First and sh'ttiest out to 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Scott N needs some sleep...lol. Just setting weenies straight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Just setting weenies straight. It's an uphill battle... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Not this far NW though on most runs. Still time for things to change obviously, but most of us weren't predicting 12z type outcomes. He mentioned it when a few models had weenie runs. In turn we mentioned it in passing, but we were dealing with the storm 2 days ago so first thing was first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Where the hell is the sne "snow belt"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Can't straighten out crooked weenies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 18z NAM looks a tad more amped w/ slightly higher heights along the east coast...at same time, out to 12h, it has two LPs as opposed to one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 can someone lock this thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 He mentioned it when a few models had weenie runs. In turn we mentioned it in passing, but we were dealing with the storm 2 days ago so first thing was first. Even yesterday though, a lot of people thought he was being too bullish. My point is that he just hasn't wavered run-to-run at all this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Just setting weenies straight. 6 weeks waiting period getting to you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 SREFs are 20 mile NW from 9z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 SREFs are 20 mile NW from 9z Use the new thread for good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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