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12/30 Coastal - Snowing Our Way Into NYE

Clinch Leatherwood

By Clinch Leatherwood,
in New England

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
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For sure, I have to work 12-9 at a pizza place tmrw, might have to call out, either that or go outside every half hour. If I have to go to work and we are getting 6 and BOS is getting 8+ and I can't track it it will kill me lol.

suck it up go to work, man kids these days LOL. Seriously can not make any money staying home, ever hear of a smartphone?

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weathafella

weathafella

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If we were in that Bar in Boston again we would have been tossed out, a collective roar. LOL, man this brings back some great memories. You guys should really think about coming to the GTG in ORH , check out the thread. Its been a while so should be , ready for this Brian, Ryan, Scott, Phil, =NOT BORING

Smelly.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

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These QPF maps aren't going to be 100% gold either. it's going to be very critical to see where the heavy bands set up. The best frontgenetical forcing right now appears to be modeled over RI and SE Mass., and we could see some 1-2"/hr snowfall rates clock someone with a storm total over 10 inches.

I need some of the Moneypitmike/Dendrite nw band magic...now that I need it, the QPF will be modeled perfectly.

EURO will probably look like the GEM/UK....which suck.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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Seems a bit gun blazing, without seeing the Euro yet, especially considering model consensus is still at best a 4-8" strip from IJD to PYM. But alas, temperament not an appreciated skill :lol:

Admittedly, GEFS is nice, but even so is a 4-8" event with some BL issues from WST-PYM.

Uh I think 99.9% think this way, all tempered as far as I can see.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Burbank pulls the trigger but leaves options open for less or more

and he is supposedly basing that on the RPM ?

if so - wow.

He was one of my favorites when I was young - if I didn't like the conservative tone of Dick Albert, I could always turn it over to Barry B to save the day. ...We're talking circa 1987 though... By the time the 1990s rolled around I was in college and had access to more than noon/6pm broadcasts and the Weather Channel. Yeah, that's right! The Weather Channel - hey, that 'Channel wasn't all that bad back in the day. Anyway, I don't think I have watched his broadcasts since ...1991 perhaps. Man, that's 21 years? holy sh*t. Really? ...carry the 1...yep. 21 years, wow.

Wait, no, I do recall seeing him on the eve before the 1997 April Fools Day blizzard. He was going 6-12", with a pocket of 12-18" (I think) near ORH ...? Or something like that. But, he was really excitable on air; you could tell he was probably all giddy for the cut-off snow hose from the E -type scenario, off the air.

Then there was Harvey Leonard, some 5 days before that April event. I recall, vividly, him slightly bent at the waist, with his fingers and thumb outstretched so as to posture at emphasizing the point, " Should this manage to pass underneath our latitude, watch out!" It was trembling with excitement statement for me, because I had just come down from the weather lab, after tenting over charts for the last hour, and I am pretty sure with above 90% confidence, that is precisely what I thought in my mind when I saw the ... I think it was AVN... no, it was the MRF.

Actually, the ECMWF was already the Tom Brady of the forecast model by the late 1990s, and it too had the low closing, deepening, hinting at passing S of LI; mind you, this was all 5 days before the event. Both models, if I recall, had their best low level vortex component still S of Nova Scotia. I wonder what the ensemble spread on both were - I bet there was a big west smearing, and less east, even at that early of an inning.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

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the weenie NMM rips the comma head over the Cape and goes to town. it and the NAM are a legitimate 8-12" but i'm not sold yet. high stakes though.

I think the main heavy stuff is going to be down his way up to Bob. Not buying the bigger interior hits yet.

Latest run of the RPM is much less robust and probably more realistic. Thru 11z Sunday, 2-4" outside of 495, 4-8" inside, higher on the south coast. Terrible run to run consistency...terrible.

I sense there may be some issues in picking up where the development is going to take place. We saw this yesterday with the GFS dropping a low on a QPF bomb. Going to be a very dynamic system and I think models are bouncing around trying to figure out where the development is going to take place.

Euro should give us a clearer picture and like I said I expect it to be in the CMC/UK camp maybe tilted a bit left.

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snowman21

snowman21

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I would but I'm back at Penn State on the 7th... we have a really really short Christmas break.

Well at least you get a Thanksgiving break now. When I was an undergrad there a little over a decade ago, the only day you got off for Thanksgiving was the Friday after. Needless to say I spent several Thanksgivings in West Halls where they put all of us (mostly international students) that weren't able to leave for the break. At least it was a lot closer to Walker for the few days I lived there compared to my normal South Halls residence.

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Ryan

Ryan

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Well at least you get a Thanksgiving break now. When I was an undergrad there a little over a decade ago, the only day you got off for Thanksgiving was the Friday after. Needless to say I spent several Thanksgivings in West Halls where they put all of us (mostly international students) that weren't able to leave for the break. At least it was a lot closer to Walker for the few days I lived there compared to my normal South Halls residence.

Yeah it definitely is nice having the whole week at Thanksgiving. I live in East (classic freshman) and hope to live in west next year!

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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Is there any reason why you WOULD go that high?

There's some positives going on right now to support higher thinking, but I don't think I would commit to that large of an area of 6-12...I mean, its not impossible for that to happen. If this makes another bump NW, then theres a good chance that does happen. I'm thinking that is what he is banking on given the distinct trend here.

I'm just not convinced it keeps coming NW yet. I'll probably look at everything a lot more closely this evening when I have a little more time.

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