Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Holy Wankers LOl at TV 5, KFS malware? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 What would you estimate a start time to be for us obviously I am 20 miles west of you. 9-11am seems reasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 9-11am seems reasonable Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Still like my map from this AM. waiting for the Euro?h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 12Z GEM goes about 20 miles west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Holy Wankers LOl at TV 5, KFS malware? Lol!! So if this shift is legit, it'll be a big miss by everything--including he ec. The gfs showed signs at 06z iirc. Nice changes for where the people live. For us and the cows, steady as she goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 waiting for the Euro?h I'll let the rest of the 12z suite run and see where we are at tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Feb. 7, 2003 was one of the best analog matches. Looks high for Cape Cod/Islands, otherwise I think the general idea is there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Feb. 7, 2003 was one of the best analog matches. Looks high for Cape Cod/Islands, otherwise I think the general idea is there... On the cell. How did that storm perform in southern ct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Bad analog. That airmass was way colder in 2003. Not to mention other features that differ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFan Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 On the cell. How did that storm perform in southern ct? http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/pns/020703.txt very underrated storm IMO (probably because of what happened 10 days later) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Beautiful Solid 4-8" for CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 The Feb '03 storm def has some similarities in the upper levels as the storm is SE of us...but yeah, the airmass in that one was definitely colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Anyone think watches,warnings,or advisories will be issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Quincy that was very bullish, I assume u see this thing as a lil nuke Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 another post from snow goose (he's a met) They've also blown the snow across OK right now, OKC moderate snow the last hour with the 500 vort swinging through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Bad analog. That airmass was way colder in 2003. Not to mention other features that differ. I didn't take a closer look at the other variables. Top Analogs - Scores: Columns in the table are sortable by header. For more information about a specific event, click on the date. A perfect field score is 1.0. The final score weighs 850HGHT three times and 850TMP, 925MIXR two times for a maximum final score of 15.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 That 700 low was still trying to close but sheared out, hence the crazy band. This H7 low wants to close south of us. But, the temp profiles are quite colder in 2003. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 28, 2012 Author Share Posted December 28, 2012 there was plenty of qpf. but honestly, it's horrendous. the soundings as far NW as like brockton are bad. Baby Bryce is making nicer looking poo than what the GFS just did SE of 95. I won't be here so it's going to snow rest assured...but even last nights RGEM/NAM hinted to me that there would be some warm layers. The only thing that encourages me is what I witnessed the other night Phil. With a raging east wind we had a mix from the coast to Rte 123 at 36 to 33 degrees. The precip shield was weak for the most part. If this has a legit comma head I think most of the coast flips over no problem. We'll see. Hey kudos to the NAM maybe. This is 5 runs in a row that has amped up and it appears other guidance is following. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Where does the 700mb low travel? Since I don't have the NCEP site right now, I can't look up the 700mb level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 man the NAM is a snowbomb out here. i'll hang my hat on the NAM and hope the GFS is got the low level thermal profile terribly terribly wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattlacroix4 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 It's not our storm. NH peeps need to take their 2-4" and live with it. Good lord, 2-4, I am more than happy. Already a beautiful base now. 2-4 is on the upper end of my expectations right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 On the cell. How did that storm perform in southern ct? Basically 6-9" for the southern half of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Whoever has already done this analysis and posted their findings I agree with them - The NAM's last 4 cycles have reprinted the low approximately 30 nautical miles WNW in point by point analysis, when the sfc vortex makes closest approach - about 39 hours from now on the 12z run. Right now, the 12z run brings heavy snow and escalating winds to the Cape and Islands (BL conditions/oceanic notwithstanding); another 30 nm tick and the NAM would have warning snow as far inland as TAN, and perhaps even OWD. As is an Advisory for snow would be needed for those SE zones, and a warning for the Cape and Islands should the 12z pan out verbatim. ...I don't think it will. The trend is so steady, and I am noticing that it is not just the sfc vortex that is edging closer to the SE coast per run; the track of the 500mb sfc is also being edge slightly west across many cycles. I am not sure I see a reason why another 30 mi tick can't happen. I don't use the RPM model; I am not sure what it's bias' are, but it seems to me just from frequenting this blogosphere that it sucks. I have read many posts before many events, weather of winter or summer complexion, where some one pulled an RPM run out and it indicates a Mayan omen. What ends up happening has always been far less dramatic. That said, this NAM model brings a 1.25 to 1.5" melted equiv blossoming comma head output partially over ACK as it is; if something wild were to happen, and this thing came another 70mi W at the last minutes, well there's your foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Top analog from 12z NAM @ 36 hrs: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Every winter seems to have a new weenie theme. This year, it's analogs. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Wheeeeee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 the NAM really is a mini 12/26-27/04 type event on the Cape. starts as mush then flips late evening and goes to town overnight. oh how we pray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I like what I am seeing thus far, hope it verifies. I have about an inch of frozen crud leftover from yesterday, this will help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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