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12/30 Coastal - Snowing Our Way Into NYE


Clinch Leatherwood

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yeah it tends to be mild overall. it's also just one particular run.

i'm not by any means saying its right - just commenting on the actual data.

it's easy to look and think it's dumping 6" of snow someplace but it's not always so cut and dry. definitely further inland it's a good advisory event but closer to the shore it's pretty meh.

that said, it does cool the coast pretty nicely thereafter and would be a good second half event.

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GFS is kind of mild from 950 on down for a few hours near 00z. Hopefully it's like 12/26/10 when it progged 950 to go above freezing but winds stayed more nrly near the surface. Sometimes it can't resolve those things on a mesoscale level, but that's the price you pay with no good cold again.

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intersting tidbit from snow goose in the nyc thread:

"Currently at work and the interesting thing going on this morning is that the models have tremendously underestimated the jet dynamics over the OH Valley, we're getting tons of aircraft reporting turbulence in altitudes only some light chop was indicated, this could be a sign we've got heights pumping more ahead of the wave kicking out of the srn plains."

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GFS is kind of mild from 950 on down for a few hours near 00z. Hopefully it's like 12/26/10 when it progged 950 to go above freezing but winds stayed more nrly near the surface. Sometimes it can't resolve those things on a mesoscale level, but that's the price you pay with no good cold again.

yeah. it's also quite a bit warmer than other guidance though. hopefully it's overdoing the low level warming. the weird thing is the previous runs were not like that at all.

this run kinda blows as i think a big chunk of qpf would be wasted east of 95 as we twiddle our thumbs with a due E wind waiting for the wind to back

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Back in the game Ed, I wonder if we see the Euro from a few days ago just a little further East?

It is possible Jeff. Been talking with 'max' on here via text and he is actually a graduate of LSC met. He's been calling this for the last day.

Wouldn't shock me to see the CCB get the cape pretty good...granted it might be liquid.

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