mattmfm Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Splitting hairs here Essentially. Without a solid 100 miles swing NW, pretty set on a 3-6" type meager advisory level event across most of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Essentially. Without a solid 100 miles swing NW, pretty set on a 3-6" type meager advisory level event across most of the area. "meager"? That's plenty when you haven't seen much in a year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 28, 2012 Author Share Posted December 28, 2012 Essentially. Without a solid 100 miles swing NW, pretty set on a 3-6" type meager advisory level event across most of the area. 40-50 miles takes me from .4 to over an inch of QPF on many of the models. Likewise, if it goes further SE I'm into sub advisory snows. It's pretty close, most have major precip hanging around the islands and just SE. NCEP hasn't noted any major issues with any of the models as of yet. I don't know what the scale is on the UKMET but it looks like .175 through 48 and then another .25 by 60 hours. Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 My gut on this is no frther nw, if anything I'd favor it going the other way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 "meager"? That's plenty when you haven't seen much in a year. I get the whole snow starved thing, but a 3-6" event is still an advisory level event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I get the whole snow starved thing, but a 3-6" event is still an advisory level event. Agreed. One Euro run made a lot of people antsy. Tough situation to get a solution like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 In years past 2-4" would be considered a pedestrian event, So 3-6" is a MECS after the last couple years..........lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 2-4" is meh...its nice to look at anyway though. Better than nothing. Now if this were 1991, then I might think differently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Agreed. One Euro run made a lot of people antsy. Tough situation to get a solution like that. Yeah, we would like a 12z Euro solution from yesterday for the 30th storm, It was a weenie run fosho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 28, 2012 Author Share Posted December 28, 2012 Agreed. One Euro run made a lot of people antsy. Tough situation to get a solution like that. That may be too simplistic. There is a tight gradient on this one. The natural weenie way is to assume movements will occur to favor those amounts moving up and over. A 40-80 mile shift makes this Warning storm. It's close on all models but its moving really fast. we will see how it looks after the 12z suite. If it ticked nw at the same pace it has since the 12z on the Canadian (I know GGEM to rgem isn't apples to apples but now now we can compare points in time), nam and gfs it'd be interesting down here. I expect it cannot get much further nw with the hope being earlier and more intense development. I'm expecting 1-3 or now maybe 2-4" here. Blockbuster by 2011/12 standards Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Yeah, we would like a 12z Euro solution from yesterday for the 30th storm, It was a weenie run fosho If that happened at 00z tonight, things would get very interesting. Not going to happen though. I except 3", maybe 4" because of ratios on SAT. I look forward to it though since its a daytime event, and it's much better then when I have to stay up all night haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Good thing these boards were not around in the 80's, We would have no posters left alive after those winters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 If that happened at 00z tonight, things would get very interesting. Not going to happen though. I except 3", maybe 4" because of ratios on SAT. I look forward to it though since its a daytime event, and it's much better then when I have to stay up all night haha. Yeah, This one is for you guys down south, Maybe and 1" or so here if things work out, But we did ok, With the Christmas day storm and this one today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 28, 2012 Author Share Posted December 28, 2012 first call is 1-3" down here. gefs pulled east I'm on the .5" contour. going to take the under based on the progressive pattern and speed of this system. Night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 this storm screams plympton, halifax, lakeville area "jackpot" COOL it's about time we got the jackpot for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 When analyzing the Euro from last night and much of the guidance today, the ridging over the Dakotas is very notable...much more amplified last night. This goes well with what I had been talking about for E MA snow events...good ridge over the Dakotas is often a popular feature in those. But weaker ridging there will keep the storm more progressive and we end up with these toned down solutions. I still think eastern areas have a shot at 4"+,..but certainly it is looking a bit tougher for something major with weaker upstream ridging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Latest thoughts. Subject to change per Euro/CMC. Maybe somewhere in that 3-6" shading there'll be some weenie 5-7". Not confident in that enough though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 28, 2012 Author Share Posted December 28, 2012 GGEM similar to rgem. Bombs the low as it moves off the Carolina's. 30mb in 24 hours to 978 by 60. Comma head just clips the cape. I'm going to guess very similar to the gefs .5 line somewhere on the lower cape (sandwich/Bourne). Good consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 UKMET out yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 COOL it's about time we got the jackpot for snow. Tell me about it! This makes me soo happy I may cry! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Uncle looks nice I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Movie was Lincoln....a masterpiece. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Crazy Uncle Scraper up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Uncle looks nice I think. Looks like 1-3" to me. Too far ots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 28, 2012 Author Share Posted December 28, 2012 Looks like 1-3" to me. Too far ots Psu maps had the uncle the same as the rest. Low is a few hours too slow developing to really clobber eastern areas. Very subtle differences. Will usairwxs fetish with the warm gulf eddy come into play here? Edit. Meteo would I think show less qpf on the uk. Is that really a 12 your accum on the ukie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Movie was Lincoln....a masterpiece. While we're waiting for GEFS and Euro, just want to clarify... Lincoln is only playing in theaters... you walked out of the movie to check the 0z Nam?! (sorry for the OT, will self-delete in a few) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Showed about 5-10mm in eastern ma. I think that translates to around .2 / .4 qpf. OK so maybe 2-4 Edit: east of the canal is in the 10-15mm contour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 28, 2012 Author Share Posted December 28, 2012 Showed about 5-10mm in eastern ma. I think that translates to around .2 / .4 qpf. OK so maybe 2-4 I'm pretty sure the 60hr panel is only 6 hour qpf. Ie we miss 48-54 on the meteo site. Prob one of those time where the euro sets the pace. We all expect consensus watch it bump se, lol. What this event will do is leave almost all of New England with snow cover for the first time in a couple of winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I'm pretty sure the 60hr panel is only 6 hour qpf. Ie we miss 48-54 on the meteo site. Prob one of those time where the euro sets the pace. We all expect consensus watch it bump se, lol. What this event will do is leave almost all of New England with snow cover for the first time in a couple of winters. I'm looking at the 72 hour total precip on the meteo site. What a burp on last nights euro. Its only wrong when it shows a blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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