Amped Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 This will be big for most of SNE...even up to my area. Already beginning to see the winds of change on the NAM. We are not needing a huge correction. This slight shifts to the NW result in significant changes for a lot of areas. But we already know this.... For Norlun events it's actually better if the low stays further east. Just need a better western disturbance to pick up the leftovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Agree. To what extent, we don't know. Maybe we can get border patrol to hold it for 6 hours That will for sure help it dig faster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Had a longer post typed and yet again this site cannot seem to post correctly in IE 10. WTF. RGEM drops about 10mb in 5 hours after 42/43 hours. the storm is ripping along but there would be a very intense band of snow in SE NE in that situation - as the RGEM shows. NAM still is barely missing. It's quite a bit further north than the earlier GGEm, there is zero doubt about that. I've been following the RGEM in the NYC thread and noting its trend and QPF today. Another jog NW and we can legitimately start talking about the model depicting widespread 6" snows. But for now this still has the feel of a 2-4 type deal. Unless something drastic happens, the SLP will be moving out hastily, with fast steering flow. But I have seen this type of look rapidly morph into something much more substantial, even at this short range. I guess we all have... esp the older amongst us. I can remember having an epic argument with DT many years ago (of course he had many many arguments with amateurs over the years), about how a particular storm just could NOT come further north. I argued that the model physics implied that it could. I think he had ALB pegged for less than 1" in his first guess and they ended up with something like 18". I like the temperature profiles for this one (outside of the Cape, but even they aren't too bad). Snow growth could be favorable and we don't need too much QPF to lay down a solid cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Better shot of the 00z RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 28, 2012 Author Share Posted December 28, 2012 I've been following the RGEM in the NYC thread and noting its trend and QPF today. Another jog NW and we can legitimately start talking about the model depicting widespread 6" snows. But for now this still has the feel of a 2-4 type deal. Unless something drastic happens, the SLP will be moving out hastily, with fast steering flow. But I have seen this type of look rapidly morph into something much more substantial, even at this short range. I guess we all have... esp the older amongst us. I can remember having an epic argument with DT many years ago (of course he had many many arguments with amateurs over the years), about how a particular storm just could NOT come further north. I argued that the model physics implied that it could. I think he had ALB pegged for less than 1" in his first guess and they ended up with something like 18". I like the temperature profiles for this one (outside of the Cape, but even they aren't too bad). Snow growth could be favorable and we don't need too much QPF to lay down a solid cover. It's screaming along on the RGEM/NAM. I'd thought 1-3, would probably have gone 2-4" here (I'm right near the cape cod/land cutoff), but the GFS may be going the other way, so who knows. We'll see. EDIT: Was not looking at tonights 0z. Which looks good, amped up from the 18z for sure. 3 models, 3 more intense than their earlier runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 out to 36h, GFS appears weaker w/ the northern stream system, which naturally results in less precip in PA, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 GFS is a hair NW at hr 48. A little more robust with precip over SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 This should help you more se guys catch up to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 GFS looks like an advisory event for most. 2-4". Maybe a little higher on the Cape if they are able to overcome BL issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 It's tighter and a little sharper with the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Yeah, Its NW brings in a little more precip here then 18z, We are still ticking NW on this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Some rain ending as snow here on the GFS...advisory type event for spots just inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 GFS looks like an advisory event for most. 2-4". Maybe a little higher on the Cape if they are able to overcome BL issues. depiction looks similar to the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Yeah, Its NW brings in a little more precip here then 18z, We are still ticking NW on this one ASOUT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 28, 2012 Author Share Posted December 28, 2012 GFS is a hair NW at hr 48. A little more robust with precip over SNE. I cannot see the accumulated QPF but by my math it would have to be over .4" down here. It's considerable further NW and stronger vs even the 18z. We're trending towards a low deepening very quickly. GFS is 8mb in 6 hours or 12mb in about 8 hours etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 28, 2012 Author Share Posted December 28, 2012 Some rain ending as snow here on the GFS...advisory type event for spots just inland NAM/RGEM/GFS to me all caution about temp issues back west of me. I think I end up raining here, the coastal front sets up east of Rte 24 down towards Exit 4 and 5 on 495. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I cannot see the accumulated QPF but by my math it would have to be over .4" down here. It's considerable further NW and stronger vs even the 18z. We're trending towards a low deepening very quickly. GFS is 8mb in 6 hours or 12mb in about 8 hours etc. Some of that may be boundary layer issues, but you would flip to snow. We'll see what the rest of the guidance does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 this storm screams plympton, halifax, lakeville area "jackpot" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 GFS still meh up here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 GFS still meh up here.. Probably gives you more than this last storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Probably gives you more than this last storm lol, I got like 1/4" so I hope so.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 28, 2012 Author Share Posted December 28, 2012 Some of that may be boundary layer issues, but you would flip to snow. We'll see what the rest of the guidance does. I think so far most of the models are pointing towards BL problems near the immediate coast. The GFS dropped the low this run right where it had a max QPF bubble on the 12z run at 48ish hours. That's probably playing into some of the variability which may explain why the ensembles have been a little more aggressive. Fast moving storm. Inlaws are riding in on their horses at sunup, I'll be up north with 2-4" of mood snow in the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 ASOUT Gfs is a 2-4" deal for the areas i outlined earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 GFS still meh up here.. Blizzard warnings should be hoisted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 72 hr precip: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 28, 2012 Author Share Posted December 28, 2012 Blizzard warnings should be hoisted. We should probably go to 1888 warnings right away. 1-3/2-4 seems reasonable. What's the story on the UKMET? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 GFS total for qpf looks like 0.25-0.40" for many. With good temps aloft for dendritic growth and decent ratios, its realistically a 3-6" from DXR-IJD-TAN and also BDR-HVN-GON. Maybe a weenie 5-7" in NW RI or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Running out of time on this one, Hopefully some of you in ESNE can cash in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 28, 2012 Author Share Posted December 28, 2012 72 hr precip: It dragged the .5 line back NW just a tiny bit over the cape as well as the 1" line creeping onto ACK. Subtle as the .25" line really didn't move at all. I think we're running into a finite wall to how far NW the significant snows are going to get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Splitting hairs here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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