weathafella Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I can't believe I left a movie to check this out. I'm 66 yeArs old and mentally I'll... Back to the movie.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Trust me guys, we shall get our blizzard. I'm not saying this because I want it. I'm saying this because I've analyzed the satellite data and it looks like the players are lining up in our favor. Faster exit of our current Nor'easter and the continued amplification of the trough-ridge pair out west. If I'm wrong I'm wrong and will own up to it, but I feel this time things will work out in our favor. Agree this is a huge factor for how sharp this trough can dig... stating obvious: we will have much better sense with the 0z suite tnite now that this nor'easter has passed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I think I nailed your amount, 7 right? Just about, very well done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I can't believe I left a movie to check this out. I'm 66 yeArs old and mentally I'll... Back to the movie.... Guarantee the movie is not as good as this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Big? Not sure about that Weenies are taking over this thread lol. NAM looks pretty decent even back here though. Cape .5+ BOS .3 and .15 to .3 for a good chunk of MA/CT/S NH I would think that would be a solid advisory event for all of SNE w/ decent ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I can't believe I left a movie to check this out. I'm 66 yeArs old and mentally I'll... Back to the movie.... lol what are you watching? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Weenies are taking over this thread lol. NAM looks pretty decent even back here though. Cape .5+ BOS .3 and .15 to .3 for a good chunk of MA/CT/S NH I would think that would be a solid advisory event for all of SNE w/ decent ratios. NAM precip shield is 50 miles further north than 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Just did a comparison to the 12z Euro run and 0z Nam. They are very very similar in terms of feature placement. This should be a red flag because the NAM being the NAM the Euro should be way ahead of it in terms of when it nails down the correct solution. Based on that assumption, I feel the 0z Euro will be a good ways NW of its 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 At least there will be a decent air mass ahead to set things up I hope Phil and those folks get a mostly snow event in any case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Although the trough Scooter was mentioning still looks elongated at 54 hrs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 NAM is a bit colder in the BL...would offer better odds of this being a plowable event here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I can't believe I left a movie to check this out. I'm 66 yeArs old and mentally I'll...Back to the movie.... I broke off from the end of Shutter Island to check this run lol Appears all here have some addiction/withdrawal issues lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 replace soup with KU storm and it makes sense lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Just did a comparison to the 12z Euro run and 0z Nam. They are very very similar in terms of feature placement. This should be a red flag because the NAM being the NAM the Euro should be way ahead of it in terms of when it nails down the correct solution. Based on that assumption, I feel the 0z Euro will be a good ways NW of its 12z run. Or both models are homing in on the right solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Matt Noyes forecast on air (with a disclaimer saying outside of 24 hours accumulation maps are highly subject to failure lol) puts all of MA RI and CT in a 3-5" zone, with a 6" sweet spot northern RI and NE CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I think DT has more unstable layers then the Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 NAM is a bit colder in the BL...would offer better odds of this being a plowable event here Was just looking at the soundings for TAN. Warmest level was at the surface. 700mb level was running - 10c to -12c. 0.37in. Looked like a solid event for the general area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Was just looking at the soundings for TAN. Warmest level was at the surface. 700mb level was running - 10c to -12c. 0.37in. Looked like a solid event for the general area. Those are good temps to have around 700mb. Havent seen the cross sections but I imagine snow growth would be very nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Trust me guys, we shall get our blizzard. I'm not saying this because I want it. I'm saying this because I've analyzed the satellite data and it looks like the players are lining up in our favor. Faster exit of our current Nor'easter and the continued amplification of the trough-ridge pair out west. If I'm wrong I'm wrong and will own up to it, but I feel this time things will work out in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 28, 2012 Author Share Posted December 28, 2012 RGEM more amped through 36 too. No guarantees it continues after that but it should. Vs 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Or both models are homing in on the right solution. That's what I was thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Those are good temps to have around 700mb. Havent seen the cross sections but I imagine snow growth would be very nice. That's why i pointed it out. Verbatim, would be nice ratios. Would like to see a xsection as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Maybe this can hold on enough for the Patriots game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 If the s/w that moves through the Ohio Valley keeps getting sharper with each cycle, I think the consolidated SLP could move pretty close to LI and the Islands. There is clearly room for this to come further north. Unless the models are very far off right now, I don't see how this slows down enough to really nail anyone. But a close approach would likely mean a few hours of good snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Just did a comparison to the 12z Euro run and 0z Nam. They are very very similar in terms of feature placement. This should be a red flag because the NAM being the NAM the Euro should be way ahead of it in terms of when it nails down the correct solution. Based on that assumption, I feel the 0z Euro will be a good ways NW of its 12z run. did the same comparison and worried about the opposite conclusion: NAM led the way showing disorganized multiple surface low centers that consolidate too far southeast... 12z EC followed and was very similar, a step away from 0z last night. we'll see if this is just a bump or converging on a less favorable solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 That's what I was thinking. LOL, I think I'll stick with Max's ideas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Matt Noyes forecast on air (with a disclaimer saying outside of 24 hours accumulation maps are highly subject to failure lol) puts all of MA RI and CT in a 3-5" zone, with a 6" sweet spot northern RI and NE CT. Matt loves me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 LOL, I think I'll stick with Max's ideas. Why not, right? All or nothing! Hah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Wait three of the very best pro mets just spent a page on how bad the NAM thermal profiles have been and it's referenced for this storm. Uh probably an effort in futility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 28, 2012 Author Share Posted December 28, 2012 RGEM goes boom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.