Max Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Also the shortwave is much more consolidated with no more crap running out ahead of it and that upper level low much weaker. This allows heights to build in quicker ahead of it which will aid in it continuing to be able to dig more and more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 nam is looking better threw 30 but I think it was east of every model at 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 28, 2012 Author Share Posted December 28, 2012 NAM is going to be pretty big I think. It could still fall apart at 36 hours (the nam witching hour) but it looks good through 30ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 NAM is going to be pretty big I think. It could still fall apart at 36 hours (the nam witching hour) but it looks good through 30ish. Is Noyes clairvoyant? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 def going to be better NAM is going to be pretty big I think. It could still fall apart at 36 hours (the nam witching hour) but it looks good through 30ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 lead shortwave a little more consolidated thru 33h, but still insisting on this 2-lobed crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 SREF snow probs are interesting...are the 4" probs an error? Or is that showing that if it were cool enough in the BL in that area there is potential for 4+? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 28, 2012 Author Share Posted December 28, 2012 At 36 hours it falls apart like it always does. Model has a real lead of 1.5 days. Encouraged to see the uptick early but this isn't going to get it done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 21z Srefs track the coastal OTS but are juicier with the primary/ Norlun to the west. It's a longshot that the coastal makes a direct hit anywhere but the cape, and that may turn to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 this is becoming increasingly a problem of northern stream negative interference...won't let the southern stream dig and your left with a low that jumps off the coast instead of riding up along it (and missing east) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 28, 2012 Author Share Posted December 28, 2012 this is becoming increasingly a problem of northern stream negative interference...won't let the southern stream dig and your left with a low that jumps off the coast instead of riding up along it (and missing east) Reminds me of the Xmas day thing as these midlevel features traversed the country stacked north to south without ever really being able to phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 this is becoming increasingly a problem of northern stream negative interference...won't let the southern stream dig and your left with a low that jumps off the coast instead of riding up along it (and missing east) Exactly, you can just see everything shear out when it nears us, instead of a nice consolidated system riding north if the vorts were better timed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 28, 2012 Author Share Posted December 28, 2012 We need to remember it's the NAM and also need to note it pulled significantly further NW vs the 18z run at 42 hours. All positive potential signs for the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 still looks to me as the NAM will be better from 18z; at least the low appears to consolidate a tad further NW and a there's a little more energy digging around the trof in the midwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 this is becoming increasingly a problem of northern stream negative interference...won't let the southern stream dig and your left with a low that jumps off the coast instead of riding up along it (and missing east) yeah discombobulated mess... surface low maybe even a little further south on this run (EDIT: saw 45h, consolidates a touch N... in any case not where we want yet) tbh, NAM empirically does not deserve much weight until < 36hrs this winter... i'll be much more interested in GFS and EC tnite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 the nam is a mess, not sure why we are even discussing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 We need to remember it's the NAM and also need to note it pulled significantly further NW vs the 18z run at 42 hours. All positive potential signs for the other models. Agree. Could see bigs things from both GFS and Euro tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Agree. Could see bigs things from both GFS and Euro tonight. :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 The NAM tonight also shows the western ridge axis further west. That is a very good sign for future correction west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 wow, NAM is def more tucked in...real close to a solid hit, as i mentioned with the low tucked in closer NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 the nam is a mess, not sure why we are even discussing it. Gives something to talk about until the real models run lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 NAM is not far out of line with 12z guidance. 2-4" and the possibility of more with a Norlun . Yes the Euro did teased for one run get over it, enjoy the event, and shutup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 28, 2012 Author Share Posted December 28, 2012 Two possibilities: 1 the NAM is still playing catch up and the rest of the guidance will now be stronger/NW or 2 the NAM has settled on the mean and this is what we're going to see from the rest which is similar to the 12z/18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 NAM is not far out of line with 12z guidance. 2-4" and the possibility of more with a Norlun . Yes the Euro did teased for one run get over it, enjoy the event, and shutup. This will be big for most of SNE...even up to my area. Already beginning to see the winds of change on the NAM. We are not needing a huge correction. This slight shifts to the NW result in significant changes for a lot of areas. But we already know this.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Big? Not sure about that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Trust me guys, we shall get our blizzard. I'm not saying this because I want it. I'm saying this because I've analyzed the satellite data and it looks like the players are lining up in our favor. Faster exit of our current Nor'easter and the continued amplification of the trough-ridge pair out west. If I'm wrong I'm wrong and will own up to it, but I feel this time things will work out in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 ugh if this was timed a little better we would be getting a 6 to 9 hour snowjob Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Big? Not sure about that You heard me...lol BIG....as Blizz says - stay the course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 NAM is not far out of line with 12z guidance. 2-4" and the possibility of more with a Norlun . Yes the Euro did teased for one run get over it, enjoy the event, and shutup. dude who are you talking to? relax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Yeah looking at it now...NAM precip further north. Definitely a closer run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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