Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Wow, you are right about that. Impressed. How do you think I come up with my ideas lol? Magic?all this talk about the coastal is just incorrect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 How do you think I come up with my ideas lol? Magic?all this talk about the coastal is just incorrect Well...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Well...... I'd be a great addition to a private met staff. Could be sales, marketing, even forecasting lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Well...... What is your take on this ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 What is your take on this ? I think a 2-4 deal for near CT/RI maybe towards BOS..maybe 3-5 SE MA. It's highly dependent on how quickly this develops. If that comma head gets close...look out. Also, the vortmax will probably deliver some snow even for wrn and ctrl MA. I don't see a big reason to be bullish now, but I am well aware how close to a big deal this will be for some..esp SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Right now I'd be surprised if we saw many spots >4 or 5". This will need to bomb earlier to deliver much more than that. It's just not quite there yet to really deliver, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I want whatever meds DT is on. Pretty please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I think a 2-4 deal for near CT/RI maybe towards BOS..maybe 3-5 SE MA. It's highly dependent on how quickly this develops. If that comma head gets close...look out. Also, the vortmax will probably deliver some snow even for wrn and ctrl MA. I don't see a big reason to be bullish now, but I am well aware how close to a big deal this will be for some..esp SE MA. Yeah that's pretty much my thinking as well. If it goes to town earlier lookout, but for now I think too little/too late. I also don't think the air mass ahead of this is particularly conducive for my area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I want whatever meds DT is on. Pretty please. Sometimes I think it's all about getting attention, which is too bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Yeah that's pretty much my thinking as well. If it goes to town earlier lookout, but for now I think too little/too late. I also don't think the air mass ahead of this is particularly conducive for my area I joked with Will that if this got close enough, it could be a mini Dec '04 for you where you go from mix to white out paste...lol. But I agree, I don't really see a reason to be bullish at the moment, just mention the "what ifs." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I joked with Will that if this got close enough, it could be a mini Dec '04 for you where you go from mix to white out paste...lol. But I agree, I don't really see a reason to be bullish at the moment, just mention the "what ifs." Yeah haha I was thinking about that earlier actually (12/26-27/04) If the antecedent air mass was better I think I'd be more interested in this delivering a warning type event..,right now I think a decent chunk of qpf is wasted on liquid/mix/non-accumulating snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 One key to watch, is the Plains ULL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Yeah haha I was thinking about that earlier actually (12/26-27/04) If the antecedent air mass was better I think I'd be more interested in this delivering a warning type event..,right now I think a decent chunk of qpf is wasted on liquid/mix/non-accumulating snow When was your last 6" event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 When was your last 6" event? He got smoked on 1/21/12 lasyt winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScituateWX Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I think a 2-4 deal for near CT/RI maybe towards BOS..maybe 3-5 SE MA. It's highly dependent on how quickly this develops. If that comma head gets close...look out. Also, the vortmax will probably deliver some snow even for wrn and ctrl MA. I don't see a big reason to be bullish now, but I am well aware how close to a big deal this will be for some..esp SE MA. I would take that and run! Not to go off topic but the flooding along the coast here today was a little more than what I was expecting, impressive storm in that regard IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 28, 2012 Author Share Posted December 28, 2012 One key to watch, is the Plains ULL. Agree with your comments in response to me above re the comma head. I just don't think at this point it pulls together in time to get me, maybe out towards chatham or Phil. I'm wide open to changes and the ULL is decently impressive so we'll see. Tonights run should consolidate the solutions I hope. I just don't see any support for the larger regionwide totals as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Apparently not. lol. It's amazing what happens to a meteorologist who does not agree with the consensus of this blog. I just read through 4 pages of people talking about Matt because he thinks it is going to snow to the Canadian border. I don't see how you can disagree with him on the point. If you look at the qpf output from the models, this is true. Even the CA/US border receives some amount of qpf from this event. In defense of Matt, he says he expects a decent snow storm. He has not thrown out any totals yet, so it sounds as if we are assuming he means 10"+. Which I am sure he does not. But these days, a decent snow storm in the coastal plain is 3". And asking what is rationale is, what do you want him to do? Get into the atmospheric dynamics on air? lol This is true - he hasn't actually tossed amounts. He could be thinking 2-4 lol He didnt give amounts but said a plowable snow for most of southern NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I'm waiting for that shortwave over the southwestern States and that trough over the Pacific to get into better data assimilation area before I give this one up. Western Texas for the southwestern US shortwave is my target area and for the trough over the Pacific I would want it to just get close enough to the coast. I'd say tomorrows 12z runs will have a better consensus than tonights 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 Max usually as we get closer to an event the models will generally have a better handle on things . Especially 30 hours out which is what it'll be then. I see your point though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 I forgot to say that my point was that shortwaves that ultimately become major players along the east coast coming out of the southwestern states have usually had more model error associated with them than normal. Take this past storm for instance. We saw the shortwave trend further south in Texas as it came out of the desert southwest. That's how a lot of the snow forecasts for Oklahoma busted so badly. It has happened before and that is why I would like to wait til this gets into Texas before saying we have no chance at getting big snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 This thread is dead tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 This thread is dead tonight. No models running, Meh storm. Thatll do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 No models running, Meh storm. Thatll do it. And NCEP still having issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 No models running, Meh storm. Thatll do it. I think I nailed your amount, 7 right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 NCEP looks back on, at least for my source Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 0z NAM has initialized the trough and shortwave over the desert southwest much stronger than 12z and 18z. This autocorrection was expected, but I still feel it is having some sort of error after initialization due to the grid being over a nonhomogeneous terrain. Still think our best idea of the strength of this feature will be tomorrows 12z runs but seeing this correction already is a very good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 NAM in general blows but its first out of the gate. Now through 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 28, 2012 Author Share Posted December 28, 2012 0z NAM has initialized the trough and shortwave over the desert southwest much stronger than 12z and 18z. This autocorrection was expected, but I still feel it is having some sort of error after initialization due to the grid being over a nonhomogeneous terrain. Still think our best idea of the strength of this feature will be tomorrows 12z runs but seeing this correction already is a very good sign. Looks stronger through 18/24. Could be pulling a fast one but flow is more amplified for sure early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 28, 2012 Author Share Posted December 28, 2012 NAM in general blows but its first out of the gate. Now through 21 I miss the NGM...was more reliable at times than the modern NAM and you could run it on your Commodore 64 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 28, 2012 Share Posted December 28, 2012 WHDH had most of MA and RI 1-4". More in SE MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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