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12/30 Coastal - Snowing Our Way Into NYE


Clinch Leatherwood

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you did see the HPC qpf map above right?

Which in no way reflects DT's map.

I honestly think 3-6 is on the table or maybe more. Also, I think NNE does way better than currently modeled. The monads always pull off those weenie bands and Maine is far enough east to get the bombing coastal for down east portions.

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Apparently not. lol. It's amazing what happens to a meteorologist who does not agree with the consensus of this blog. I just read through 4 pages of people talking about Matt because he thinks it is going to snow to the Canadian border.

I don't see how you can disagree with him on the point. If you look at the qpf output from the models, this is true. Even the CA/US border receives some amount of qpf from this event.

In defense of Matt, he says he expects a decent snow storm. He has not thrown out any totals yet, so it sounds as if we are assuming he means 10"+. Which I am sure he does not. But these days, a decent snow storm in the coastal plain is 3".

And asking what is rationale is, what do you want him to do? Get into the atmospheric dynamics on air? lol

I was kind of the Matt Noyes of the board today. Taking bashes and hurtful comments that really hurt deeply from friends and colleagues

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Which in no way reflects DT's map.

I honestly think 3-6 is on the table or maybe more. Also, I think NNE does way better than currently modeled. The monads always pull off those weenie bands and Maine is far enough east to get the bombing coastal for down east portions.

100% agree on the Maine comment. Machias or bust.

Lol, I think some that NNE/CNE qpf is from this storm.

Well, we'll take pride in the fact that we can help supply the cold air to permit the snows further east..

28.1/27

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GEFs definitely a bit east. Cut back on the moisture too. I see no reason to deviate from 1-3" for the canal region. Really shocked by the robust forecasts.

Euro would imply a solid advisory event for eastern half...gave BOS like 4" and more to the Cape...so if youy are leaning harder on the Euro, then you can justify higher amounts, but personally I think a compromise is the best at the moment...something like 2-4"

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GEFs definitely a bit east. Cut back on the moisture too. I see no reason to deviate from 1-3" for the canal region. Really shocked by the robust forecasts.

Well here is the thing. If that comma head brushes you, it will be a wild 6 hrs. With this bombing east of the Cape, it's possible the comme head brushes you and especially Phil. It does have the chance of 4+ in ern..esp SE MA.

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BOXs take on storm.

OULD SUBSIDE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... *** A PLOWABLE SNOW POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY ***

OVERVIEW... 27/12Z GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL STORM ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE STILL SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES...WHICH IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME RANGE. THE CONSENSUS TRACK LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. DECIDED TO USE A BLEND OF THE 27/12Z GFS AND ECMWF TO MINIMIZE THE TIMING DIFFERENCES AND TREND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FRIDAY NIGHT... RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. UNSEASONABLY COLD ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM 10-20 DEGREES. THIS WILL BECOME IMPORTANT WITH THE POTENTIAL COASTAL STORM THIS WEEKEND.

SATURDAY...27/12Z ECMWF HAS COME BACK INTO THE FOLD AND IS NOT NEARLY AS EXPLOSIVE WITH ITS CYCLOGENESIS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THERE WILL BE A STORM. THE BIG QUESTION YET TO BE RESOLVED IS HOW CLOSE TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL IT TRACK. AGREE WITH THE PREVIOUS SHIFT THERE IS STILL A SCENARIO WHERE THIS STORM COULD MISS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THAT SAID...DO THINK THERE IS A FAIRLY HIGH PROBABILITY OF SEEING AT LEAST LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE GREATEST PROBABILITIES WILL BE ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

UNLIKE THIS STORM WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WE SHOULD HAVE PLENTY OF COLD AIR IN PLACE. THINKING THIS WILL WILL BE ALL SNOW...EXCEPT ALONG THE SOUTH COAST...CAPE AND ISLANDS WHERE A RAIN/SNOW MIX TRANSITIONING TO RAIN IS MORE LIKELY. GREATEST RISK FOR HEAVY SNOW APPEARS ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RI.

Going with a more suppressed system at this juncture.

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Now if you sort of step back and look bigger picture you picture a much more expansive shield of qpf, complete with help from the northern vort which grabs some Atlantic moisture and you've got a widespread 3-6 or 4-8 inches long before the coastal bombs. IMO there's too much emphasis being placed on the coastal when much of our snow ESP inland is not going to directly come from the coastal

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Now if you sort of step back and look bigger picture you picture a much more expansive shield of qpf, complete with help from the northern vort which grabs some Atlantic moisture and you've got a widespread 3-6 or 4-8 inches long before the coastal bombs. IMO there's too much emphasis being placed on the coastal when much of our snow ESP inland is not going to directly come from the coastal

Wow, you are right about that. Impressed.

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