Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Something to consider..Dendrite posted the other day he got 1.25 inches on Xmas Day with .03 qpf MPM got 14 today with .005 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 27, 2012 Author Share Posted December 27, 2012 gfs may have come slightly west, I guess 0Z runs will finalize things.. I'm going with 3-6" for 128 belt, more confident with the 3 part.. I'm going 1-3" here from the Canal up through Plymouth County down to about New Bedford. I don't know on the Cape they should have enough precip for 2-4" if there aren't temp issues haven't looked that closely but will tonight. I think it's close but no cigar so far, I do like the subtle trend towards a stronger system on the 18z NAM/GFS and maybe the RGEM. It's going to be a rapidly strengthening but fast moving system. Anyway the 18z GEFS might help to clarify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Dt also has this in his writeup..This is the real deal folks. I suggest you hop on..Who's with me, DT and Noyes? This Low IS going to BOMB OUT southeast of Cape Cod and it's probable that much of southeastern Massachusetts could see over 12" of snow fromthis system. Then why does he have his highest amounts in nne??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Some of these forecasts are remarkably bullish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 So.....looks like the NW trend is over for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Then why does he have his highest amounts in nne??? The map was a mistake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Something to consider..Dendrite posted the other day he got 1.25 inches on Xmas Day with .03 qpf Don't fall through on your 4-8" by bringing high ratios into this at this juncture...there is some part in the back of my mind that can see this thing becoming more amplified than modeled, but we will see. I think 0z will sample that s/w over the SW better...you can already see the 18z runs having it stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 It's a progressive storm, H7 closes off well offshore. I'd call it a SWFE for all but the cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 It's a progressive storm, H7 closes off well offshore. I'd call it a SWFE for all but the cape. It's not a SWFE with a low east of the BM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Don't fall through on your 4-8" by bringing high ratios into this at this juncture...there is some part in the back of my mind that can see this thing becoming more amplified than modeled, but we will see. I think 0z will sample that s/w over the SW better...you can already see the 18z runs having it stronger. I wasn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I guess DT forgot to to consult with the HPC office............... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I guess DT forgot to to consult with the HPC office............... He sees things!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I guess DT forgot to to consult with the HPC office............... Thats an awkward looking qpf distribution...theres like none in CT lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I wasn't My b. If 0z holds serve I am going to release my thoughts...and they really aren't that bad at this stage. If 0z improves, we will go from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Are there any sane mets out there anymore? Apparently not. lol. It's amazing what happens to a meteorologist who does not agree with the consensus of this blog. I just read through 4 pages of people talking about Matt because he thinks it is going to snow to the Canadian border. I don't see how you can disagree with him on the point. If you look at the qpf output from the models, this is true. Even the CA/US border receives some amount of qpf from this event. In defense of Matt, he says he expects a decent snow storm. He has not thrown out any totals yet, so it sounds as if we are assuming he means 10"+. Which I am sure he does not. But these days, a decent snow storm in the coastal plain is 3". And asking what is rationale is, what do you want him to do? Get into the atmospheric dynamics on air? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 This is a better HPC image. Lines up with my current thinking...except in NW Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 The map was a mistake He just told me the 12Z EC and its Ensembles bring 8-12 to S NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 He just told me the 12Z EC and its Ensembles bring 8-12 to S NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 27, 2012 Author Share Posted December 27, 2012 Some of these forecasts are remarkably bullish I'm wondering what it's all based on. So.....looks like the NW trend is over for now. Jerry I think the only trend is towards a consolidated, rapidly deepening low that develops so late it barely clips SE New England with the heavier stuff. Less QPF distributed to the NW in favor of a tighter system. Let's see if that's legit in the 0z tonight. I guess DT forgot to to consult with the HPC office............... I posted the HPC 120 hour storm forecast position as a hard link in the previous storm thread. They nailed it. I like this QPF map for SE New England (not commenting on any other area). that seems about right with the .5" line somewhere over Cape Cod, .2/5 somewhere south of boston trailing back towards Fall River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 DT probably will have the flu until 2 events later... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 He just told me the 12Z EC and its Ensembles bring 8-12 to S NH. well HPC does have us in the .25-5 qpf so maybe he is thinking 20:1 ratios, or perhaps the EC is a bit higher? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 well HPC does have us in the .25-5 qpf so maybe he is thinking 20:1 ratios, or perhaps the EC is a bit higher? I love you brother but Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I love you brother but I'm just reporting the information that was reported to me Rebbe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 He just told me the 12Z EC and its Ensembles bring 8-12 to S NH. Wth? Well looks like I'm set then according to his thoughts! Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 you did see the HPC qpf map above right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 GFS trying to pop a D7 coastal. Crushed by the PV at the last second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Apparently not. lol. It's amazing what happens to a meteorologist who does not agree with the consensus of this blog. I just read through 4 pages of people talking about Matt because he thinks it is going to snow to the Canadian border. I don't see how you can disagree with him on the point. If you look at the qpf output from the models, this is true. Even the CA/US border receives some amount of qpf from this event. In defense of Matt, he says he expects a decent snow storm. He has not thrown out any totals yet, so it sounds as if we are assuming he means 10"+. Which I am sure he does not. But these days, a decent snow storm in the coastal plain is 3". And asking what is rationale is, what do you want him to do? Get into the atmospheric dynamics on air? lol This is true - he hasn't actually tossed amounts. He could be thinking 2-4 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Apparently not. lol. It's amazing what happens to a meteorologist who does not agree with the consensus of this blog. I just read through 4 pages of people talking about Matt because he thinks it is going to snow to the Canadian border. I don't see how you can disagree with him on the point. If you look at the qpf output from the models, this is true. Even the CA/US border receives some amount of qpf from this event. In defense of Matt, he says he expects a decent snow storm. He has not thrown out any totals yet, so it sounds as if we are assuming he means 10"+. Which I am sure he does not. But these days, a decent snow storm in the coastal plain is 3". And asking what is rationale is, what do you want him to do? Get into the atmospheric dynamics on air? lol Techincal discussions, tweets.....his detailed videos.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 OKX is thinking it's a moderate event: Congrats, Steve. Sit back and enjoy a beet. I guess DT forgot to to consult with the HPC office............... That's what I expect for NW Mass--expect a bit more than that further east. This is a better HPC image. Lines up with my current thinking...except in NW Mass. Dare I ask what that thought about western Mass? Probably trying to find a color to designate cirrus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 this thread is quickly becoming more entertaining than just about anything on television these days one more run like last night's euro and this thing will be sixty or seventy pages lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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