CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Are there any sane mets out there anymore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I would be thrilled with 1-3 with light winds, make for perfect sledding sat evening and firepit activities, anything more is a bonus. yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Are there any sane mets out there anymore? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Are there any sane mets out there anymore? Ryan just left the board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I've been trying man..Felt like it was me and Will against the world today I'm not sure why everyone has been on your case all day. I've seen the KURO spit out far more unrealistic forecasts. Even if this ends up being a 1-4" event for most...not sure why the bellyaching. It will be cold and wintry for New Years...what more do people want? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I'm not sure why everyone has been on your case all day. I've seen the KURO spit out far more unrealistic forecasts. Even if this ends up being a 1-4" event for most...not sure why the bellyaching. It will be cold and wintry for New Years...what more do people want? Yeah i really don't get it..But again I stay my course..They can stay theirs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I'm shocked there's so may maps out already. Here's WHDH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 27, 2012 Author Share Posted December 27, 2012 Someone needs to start a new thread...this one blows. Nothing but Debbie's. Honestly not sure what the deal is. A nice light event for all. Maybe something a little more to the S & E if things break right. But lots of nastiness all around. Must be post Christmas blues. If you're unhappy with this threat, please take step away from your computer until we ring in the New Year. People have lost their marbles and we need the mods to clean it up. It's a storm 2 days away that is going to brush past us. There's some hints it may come in stronger but it's a light to moderate event at this point in time. As far as the rest of it goes, it belongs in the banter thread or on this guys show: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 GFS is rolling, lets see if we can get that NW trend going that Noyes, DT and CT are talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 People have lost their marbles and we need the mods to clean it up. It's a storm 2 days away that is going to brush past us. There's some hints it may come in stronger but it's a light to moderate event. As far as the rest of it goes, it belongs in the banter thread or on this guys show: Please stop with the mod crap, what do we discuss in between model runs, the models came in they were discussed, now what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 On December 26, 2012, the Model Analysis and Guidance (MAG) website experienced a major hardware failure. We are working with NOAA's Web Operations Center to return the MAG to the standard user interface. In the meantime, limited services for the North American region have been restored to accommodate our customers who access the GFS, NAM, and RAPmodel GIF images directly. For those who use the web interface, we will continue to provide enhancements to this site as quickly as possible. We apologize for any inconvenience this has caused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Ehhh ... every piece of guidance was spitting out 1.75+ qpf from dendrite up to the int'l border. what does that speak to you? guidance is not very reliable, esp global models dealing with qpf and a fickle, showery setup. jmo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 GFS is trying not to disappoint...again, NW of 12z, but the question remains whether the NW trend is just the n'ern system staying further separated from the s'ern stream...hard to say out to 36h, but will probably b at least something better than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 27, 2012 Author Share Posted December 27, 2012 GFS is trying not to disappoint...again, NW of 12z, but the question remains whether the NW trend is just the n'ern system staying further separated from the s'ern stream...hard to say out to 36h, but will probably b at least something better than 12z It's tough to say but it's digging pretty good. It's awfully close to a major hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Box 436pm, status quo: Saturday...27/12z European model (ecmwf) has come back into the fold and is not nearly as explosive with its cyclogenesis Saturday into Saturday night. Confidence is growing there will be a storm. The big question yet to be resolved is how close to southern New England will it track. Agree with the previous shift there is still a scenario where this storm could miss most of southern New England. That said...do think there is a fairly high probability of seeing at least light precipitation across southern New England. The greatest probabilities will be across Cape Cod and the islands. Unlike this storm Wednesday night...we should have plenty of cold air in place. Thinking this will will be all snow...except along the South Coast...cape and islands where a rain/snow mix transitioning to rain is more likely. Greatest risk for heavy snow appears across eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 GFS is trying not to disappoint...again, NW of 12z, but the question remains whether the NW trend is just the n'ern system staying further separated from the s'ern stream...hard to say out to 36h, but will probably b at least something better than 12z yeah looks like the N. stream is digging a bit more.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 It ends up about the same as 12z. Looked better initially though. .25 to the cape, .1-.25 for the rest of SNE. AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Wait... I looked at all the 12z runs... what am I missing? What is the Noyes/DT insane train looking at? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Wait... I looked at all the 12z runs... what am I missing? What is the Noyes/DT insane train looking at? I haven't the foggiest. Just sit back, predict in the range of reason (1-4 in general) and enjoy watching Blizz drink the Kool-Aid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 18z gfs is meh here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 2-4" looks good for most of CT except maybe Litchfield county right now. Maybe 3-6" farther east in RI/SE Mass...nothing major, but its snow. Beggars can't be choosers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I would take this and run, falls in line with Upton's 4 inch prediction here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 27, 2012 Author Share Posted December 27, 2012 It's continuing on the thought that I have that this is going to be a tight gradient for the serious snow. The "ccb" /comma head like structure runs over the Cape this run. Get under that you get a big event, end up in the subsidence and get frustrated. I do like the trend but it's still only a 1-3 or 2-4 type deal IMO in SE New England. Not speaking of other regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 18z gfs is meh here yeah, it almost gets shunted ENE b/w hr 48 and 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Wait... I looked at all the 12z runs... what am I missing? What is the Noyes/DT insane train looking at? I'm asking DT on Facebook that very question. Maybe they are seeing something in the teleconnections or set up that makes them think it will come in closer than modeled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 gfs may have come slightly west, I guess 0Z runs will finalize things.. I'm going with 3-6" for 128 belt, more confident with the 3 part.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 OKX is thinking it's a moderate event: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 OKX is thinking it's a moderate event: sweet, timing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 OKX is thinking it's a moderate event: I wouldn't really consider 3-4" to be moderate...but that is reasonable especially for middlesex and NL counties I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Something to consider..Dendrite posted the other day he got 1.25 inches on Xmas Day with .03 qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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