CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Look at the H5 trough and you see the issue. That trough is stretched and elongated with the lead s/w pulling east while another s/w rounds the bend and tries to dig the trough. You need to tighten that up, with a better lead s/w and sharpen the trough so it's not so wide, or elongated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I think he got events screwed up because the map does not match the thoughts. DT? His map is so wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 He must have made a mistake. Groink!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Dt also has this in his writeup..This is the real deal folks. I suggest you hop on..Who's with me, DT and Noyes? This Low IS going to BOMB OUT southeast of Cape Cod and it's probable that much of southeastern Massachusetts could see over 12" of snow fromthis system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Look at the H5 trough and you see the issue. That trough is stretched and elongated with the lead s/w pulling east while another s/w rounds the bend and tries to dig the trough. You need to tighten that up, with a better lead s/w and sharpen the trough so it's not so wide, or elongated. What are the chances that the trough will become sharper? Is there a chance the models are getting that part wrong or are we too close in for that to be wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I like his all rain in all of CT RI and ORH county map better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 that map makes zero sense, has he lost it? The weather pattern has clearly gotten to him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 that map makes zero sense, has he lost it? Yeah the contours/gradient isn't even going in the right direction. Toss it like the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Dt also has this in his writeup..This is the real deal folks. I suggest you hop on..Who's with me, DT and Noyes? This Low IS going to BOMB OUT southeast of Cape Cod and it's probable that much of southeastern Massachusetts could see over 12" of snow fromthis system. wTF is that map??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 What are the chances that the trough will become sharper? Is there a chance the models are getting that part wrong or are we too close in for that to be wrong? It is possible it becomes sharper, little nuances can have a pretty big effect bringing a the precip shield 50 miles NW. It also depends how much backside energy gets involved and also...how much of a kicker is the trough out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Just curious... what happens between the 4 inch contour and the 4-8 inch contour? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 wTF is that map??? Looks like a map someone made for the storm yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 wTF is that map??? He's got a post on FB about it being delayed 30 minutes due to family crap..that map isn't the right one..Read the lengthy writeup..What will be funny is Bob, Scooter, phil, Messenger digging out of 12 + Sunday afternoon while me and Noyes high five each other Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Looks like a map someone made for the storm yesterday. Maybe he posted the wrong map...but then again the dates have been updated on it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 He's got a post on FB about it being delayed 30 minutes due to family crap..that map isn't the right one..Read the lengthy writeup..What will be funny is Bob, Scooter, phil, Messenger digging out of 12 + Sunday afternoon while me and Noyes high five each other Can you post the write-up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Dave's map look like an 80/20 split, 80% 00z Euro and 20% 12z Euro. Here's the map I just came up with. The light snowfall area is GENERALLY 1-3". (I made the map only thinking of specific numerical amounts for Connecticut) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 He's got a post on FB about it being delayed 30 minutes due to family crap..that map isn't the right one..Read the lengthy writeup..What will be funny is Bob, Scooter, phil, Messenger digging out of 12 + Sunday afternoon while me and Noyes high five each other I will pay good money to see this. (and 12+) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 This December 30 event first appeared on my radar screen back on December 21-22... But there even some hints of this system before hand. I am doing things a little differently this winter in an attempt to finesse my skills in detecting significant winter weather events beyond 7 days and so far there been 2 significant events-- the DEC 20-22 Midwest winter storm and the just ended December 25-26 event... which I detected over 12 days before they actually developed. In fact my first post on the potential for significant eastern U.S. winter storm for DECEMBER 25-26 was first made back on December 7. Each particular event has certain characteristics which a meteorologist must take a look at and consider as he / she makes a forecast for the client or the general public. For example with a recently just ended DEC 26-27 winter storm... the DOMINATING characteristic was that the main or primary LOW would track into Tennessee and perhaps southeastern Kentucky as a fairly strong system. And that in turn would dislodge the cold air over the northeast U.S. and force the precipitation to change to rain pretty quickly. In this upcoming situation for December 29-30 things are of course... vastly different. This Low is not going to be nearly as strong and the initial stages as the DEC 25-26 Low. This is going to be a pretty fast moving system so the actual interval of moderate or significant precipitation is not going to last that long and it is imperative that one does not over forecast too much snow. This Low IS going to BOMB OUT southeast of Cape Cod and it's probable that much of southeastern Massachusetts could see over 12" of snow fromthis system. Over all of central and south central Virginia the low level temperatures near the ground will be too warm to support ALL snow what the START of the event. This particular aspect of this Low I have been talking about for the past three or four days--- that even though the Middle and Upper levels of the atmosphere will be cold enough for all snow in the Richmond metro area... the temperatures in the last 2000 feet near the ground may be above 32 degrees F. As a result I think that the precipitation at least for the first half of the event over the Richmond metro area will be rain and snow mixed which to most people will probably appear as all rain . Then as the Low pressure area moves off the Virginia Coast and the cold air comes at the surface the precipitation hands as snow . the one thing that could change this and make it colder and snowy are for the Richmond metro area would be for the precipitation that come down harder / heavier which would pull down enough cold air to the surface so that the precipitation would fall as snow even at the ground level. That is a possibility although it's not a likelihood at this point. The short range model data clearly shows a significant band of moderate precipitation running from Tennessee and southeastern Kentucky into southwestern Virginia up through the Roanoke Lexington area and into much of eastern portions of West Virginia and the Shenandoah Valley. I suspect this area will see the best snow because they also have the coldest low level temperatures. If you cannot find your location on this map PLEASE go back High school OR please stop reproducing... and give up your right to vote. http://mysite.verizon.net/vze1aqbof/sitebuildercontent/sitebuilderpictures/dec301stg.jpg The one area that could see the leaseT snow ...or the biggest BUST in the northeast would be northern NJ and New York City. And the area that might be the biggest winner with this snow would be Eastern Long Island Rhode Island and southeastern Massachusetts including martha's vineyard Cape Cod and probably Boston I am also increasingly concerned about a potential event JAN2-3... And I will do would let the wriite or VIDEO about that Thursday evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 lol...he puts a map out like that, but has the nerve to tell people to go back to HS and stop reproducing if they can't find their location on it. Same old DT. He should also mention that he saw this storm on his radar screen because he saw it on the ec ens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Someone needs to start a new thread...this one blows. Nothing but Debbie's. Honestly not sure what the deal is. A nice light event for all. Maybe something a little more to the S & E if things break right. But lots of nastiness all around. Must be post Christmas blues. If you're unhappy with this threat, please take step away from your computer until we ring in the New Year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 You don't think NNE is getting 8-12"? lol......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Hey man we are not all Debra. Dendrite I thought the same, lol. Hey feeling any better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 lol...he puts a map out like that, but has the nerve to tell people to go back to HS and stop reproducing if they can't find their location on it. Same old DT. He should also mention that he saw this storm on his radar screen because he saw it on the ec ens. I'll give him credit: at least he doesn't constantly question why he is able to see these things but the NWS (or NHC) cannot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 hype hype hype Matt Noyes @MattNoyesNECN Saturday PM storm seems quite likely to track close to 40°N/70°W lat/lon "benchmark" for Southern NewEng snowstorms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 http://mysite.verizo...aqbof/id35.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Someone needs to start a new thread...this one blows. Nothing but Debbie's. Honestly not sure what the deal is. A nice light event for all. Maybe something a little more to the S & E if things break right. But lots of nastiness all around. Must be post Christmas blues. If you're unhappy with this threat, please take step away from your computer until we ring in the New Year. I've been trying man..Felt like it was me and Will against the world today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Matty Noyes doesn't really think anything can be said with certainty til tomorrow, he is certainly liking this events potential though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Noyes and DT violently disagree on the Cape Matt Noyes @MattNoyesNECN Those probabilities for Cape represent bulk of the storm - chance 4 flakes increases as storm pulls away, but tapering Expand 52mMatt Noyes @MattNoyesNECN Chance of snow (vs. rain) on *Cape Cod* in Sat PM storm? As of right now...west end 55%, east end 10%. Time will tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Someone needs to start a new thread...this one blows. Nothing but Debbie's. Honestly not sure what the deal is. A nice light event for all. Maybe something a little more to the S & E if things break right. But lots of nastiness all around. Must be post Christmas blues. If you're unhappy with this threat, please take step away from your computer until we ring in the New Year. I would be thrilled with 1-3 with light winds, make for perfect sledding sat evening and firepit activities, anything more is a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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