weatherMA Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 The SREF's have about half scrapers and half OTS...the snow probs come up with a pretty even 40% for 1" across all of SNE though...I assume because where there's more QPF, its warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Enlighten me...all I have heard is that he thinks it will come north...why??? He really gave no reason he just let the map do the talking and would have more later. It was almost like he was trying to drive up the viewership for the 6pm news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Enlighten me...all I have heard is that he thinks it will come north...why??? I thought he was talking about the widespread areas of snow. I didn't hear his rationale on why it will come north. Maybe he thinks it's because of a sharp vortmax and the baroclinic zone so close to the US east coast? IMO if it does come north, it's not the best logic to use. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Matt Noyes write-up - So...the question becomes, how quickly does this transition to a faster flow evolve - at this point, it looks like the mean flow will be fast enough to keep a Saturday evening to Sunday morning snowstorm moving quickly enough to keep snow totals from becoming remarkable, but in a snow-starved Southern New England, even a six to eight inch event - certainly well within the realm of possibility - would be welcomed by snow lovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 IOW....he has no reason, and is going on a hunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 He was pretty low for many In central ma. Not bad though. He had 4-6 for central MA. There was 4-6, with some areas of 7 or 8. He had one of the better forecasts. His forecasts for SNH were good. CT he busted. Everyone busted in Central NH in the screw zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Where are you getting totals? I dont see a HWO or anything in the point and fails? From the AFD. The 3-5 bit I imagine will be a game time decision... so when they release the afternoon package shortly we'll see what the final numbers are. I think we're good for an inch or so down this way. If things tick NW maybe two. Out towards BDR and HVN maybe 2 or 3, and GON 3 or 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 This event is starting to tweak my curiosity. Could be our fist decent snowfall in well over a year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Not bad though. He had 4-6 for central MA. There was 4-6, with some areas of 7 or 8. He had one of the better forecasts. His forecasts for SNH were good. CT he busted. Everyone busted in Central NH in the screw zone. I saw 4" up almost to SNH. The precip shield fractured, everyone was going on warm mid level temps, but if the shield didn't break apart, it would have given ORH area more snow. I think models did poorly with that, but there were red flags like having the deep RH move north quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 From the AFD. The 3-5 bit I imagine will be a game time decision... so when they release the afternoon package shortly we'll see what the final numbers are. I think we're good for an inch or so down this way. If things tick NW maybe two. Out towards BDR and HVN maybe 2 or 3, and GON 3 or 4. I'm not throwing out ANYTHING until tomorrow. I think HVN eastward sees 3+ but it's too early to say much else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 lol at dts first guess map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 IOW....he has no reason, and is going on a hunch. These hunches sometimes work out, but this needs to slow a little, or do what the euro did last night...have a hell of a lead s/w. I think his rationale for SE MA is ok based on that blog statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 lol at dts first guess map ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I saw 4" up almost to SNH. The precip shield fractured, everyone was going on warm mid level temps, but if the shield didn't break apart, it would have given ORH area more snow. I think models did poorly with that, but there were red flags like having the deep RH move north quickly. Oh, I didn't know it was that low. I agree it wasn't the greatest forecast for sure, but it was better than the NWS. And yeah, I never expected Tolland to get the same/slightly more snow than me. What a fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 DT chucks them in the first guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I'm not throwing out ANYTHING until tomorrow. I think HVN eastward sees 3+ but it's too early to say much else. Except on twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 DT chucks them in the first guess Folks he said would be all rain in ORH received 4-10 inches, Pete got 16-18, MPM 14. Nice bust as some think it was??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 lol at dts first guess map ??? deets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 http://mysite.verizon.net/vze1aqbof/id35.html ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Except on twitter Haha twitter was for my Friends and bosses but yeah I am limiting amounts here. There's a lot of moving parts still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Oh, I didn't know it was that low. I agree it wasn't the greatest forecast for sure, but it was better than the NWS. And yeah, I never expected Tolland to get the same/slightly more snow than me. What a fail. Not many did well including myself. I really didn't anticipate the precip shield pooping the bed like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 ? I think he got events screwed up because the map does not match the thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Folks he said would be all rain in ORH received 4-10 inches, Pete got 16-18, MPM 14. Nice bust as some think it was??? 4-6", no 10" 6" at airport 4.5" in low elevations of city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 http://mysite.verizo...aqbof/id35.html WOW...bold...I like it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 4-6", no 10" 6" at airport 4.5" in low elevations of city ORH county my boy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 He must have made a mistake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Not many did well including myself. I really didn't anticipate the precip shield pooping the bed like that. Yeah, no one did. Like I said, Kevin getting more than me is a complete joke. He's at like 17-18" on the season and I'm at 11-12". Kevin's doing better this year then Dendrite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 ORH county my boy Lol sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 He must have made a mistake. You don't think NNE is getting 8-12"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 that map makes zero sense, has he lost it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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