Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I think I may see a few flakes before midnight. commons walk? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 commons walk? Could be. My wife and I need to drop our daughter in Wakefield so we may do Melrose Center for dinner and a stroll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Euro Ensemble mean pretty close to op run. Should be good for a couple inches I'd think? Thanks Ryan. Hope the Beast was fun today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Radar says you're ripping right now. Pretty showery, 15-20 dbz stuff, Not very great snow growth either, Winds are gusting to 35mph though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 nice, looked a little better to me. I only took a quick peek and compared to the previous run. Didn't bother with total precip since it's still picking some up from today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Well with all guidance still within range the best forecast is "some snow" for late Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Pretty showery, 15-20 dbz stuff, Not very great snow growth either, Winds are gusting to 35mph though What do you have so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 FWIW, And its not much, The 18z Nam looks a little more west of 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 F ckn place is nuts...just nuts. Every creaking thread turns into a pity party or shouting match. I contribute to the former. You're not even allowed to post thoughts without getting thrown down a flight of stairs..I don't think anything I have posted has been outlandish or unreasonable except for my tongue in cheek blizzard watch post. I even backed it up with reasons why and naked little vienna sausage pig piles quickly ensue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Yup 1st call for here is Cirrus LOL--that's my call for the Pit. Say hello to my little friend.... Matt Noyes @MattNoyesNECN 15m Gotta say, *early* indication is Sat PM storm lights up the classic Southern NewEng snowbelt - CT/Nrn RI/SE MA View details · What in Sam Hell??? Sarcasm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I like a 3-6 swipe from i84 south, 2-4 to the pike and tr-2 north of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Old old school NCEP temporary graphic link Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 F ckn place is nuts...just nuts. Every creaking thread turns into a pity party or shouting match. I contribute to the former. Yeah we are hemorrhaging Juju. Euro is bipolar on this storm... some critical variables: 1) how organized southern low is (NAM pushing idea of a multi-low center until it's well off the VA/NC coast and consolidates into 1 low, we'll see if this is right) 2) how quickly this gets captured by northern vort I'm still hoping #2 is underestimated... There are a few spectacular GEFS members to keep this on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 18z NAM has a SLIGHT NW shift with the QPF field through 21z Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Without access to computers and model guidance, what would you base your ideas/thoughts on? Lick of the finger in the wind? lol...OT, but back in the "old" days 25 years ago all we had was 48 hours of guidance but we were putting out 5 day forecasts so there was a lot of extrapolation and a little something called meteorology/climatology and knowing how systems behaved. I kind of miss the days of flipping through DiFax charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 18z NAM will come in just a little bit wetter when all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 NAM throws snow into NNE despite the offshore position of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Really surprised by how bullish Noyes is on this one... on the midday news he manually drew snow all the way through central/northern NH... and made note of how the guidance product was much further south, but he thinks it'll snow much farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 18z nam was atrocious for the state of Ct precip wise, its just a hot mess of a run and a model completely disorganized with precip hundreds of miles from where it should be. Phase continues to be too late and messy, ride the Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 The only way we are going to get this system up here is for it to amplify over the lower Tennessee valley and get that trough to dig to the panhandle of Florida other wise then that its just to progressive and blows up to far off shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Really surprised by how bullish Noyes is on this one... on the midday news he manually drew snow all the way through central/northern NH... and made note of how the guidance product was much further south, but he thinks it'll snow much farther north. He did well on this one as we ragged him for being conservative in MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 He did well on this one as we ragged him for being conservative in MA He was pretty low for many In central ma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I like a 3-6 swipe from i84 south, 2-4 to the pike and tr-2 north of that Sounds like the latest OKX forecast. They're tossing the NAM, but as stated all other guidance is converging on a drier and more easterly track just outside of the benchmark. Lowering accums was the biggest change made to this afternoon's forecast. They're now going with 2-4 across southern Conn. perhaps 3-5 southern New London. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ryan Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 He did well on this one as we ragged him for being conservative in MA no doubt about it (although he was really low in parts of interior southeastern NH)...just saying I'm surprised Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Noyes isn't giving any raionale? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Sounds like the latest OKX forecast. They're tossing the NAM, but as stated all other guidance is converging on a drier and more easterly track just outside of the benchmark. Lowering accums was the biggest change made to this afternoon's forecast. They're now going with 2-4 across southern Conn. perhaps 3-5 southern New London. I think things will tick a tad north and west especially if this ULL gets the hell out of here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Noyes isn't giving any raionale? I see what he is saying, but the fact that it is progressive IMO limits how much snow NE will receive. I do see a widespread area of light snows, thanks to a sharp vortmax moving through and adding lift...sort of outside the dynamics of the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Sounds like the latest OKX forecast. They're tossing the NAM, but as stated all other guidance is converging on a drier and more easterly track just outside of the benchmark. Lowering accums was the biggest change made to this afternoon's forecast. They're now going with 2-4 across southern Conn. perhaps 3-5 southern New London. Where are you getting totals? I dont see a HWO or anything in the point and fails? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 just watched Noyes' forecast. He is indeed very bullish, his cone of snow he draws in is as bullish as i have seen considering where the models are now. His map looked like a classic SNE snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I see what he is saying, but the fact that it is progressive IMO limits how much snow NE will receive. I do see a widespread area of light snows, thanks to a sharp vortmax moving through and adding lift...sort of outside the dynamics of the low. Enlighten me...all I have heard is that he thinks it will come north...why??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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