Bostonseminole Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Existing mods need help. Nothing stays on topic. I vote for more moderators I already mentioned I would help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Just so you can re-read what I wrote. In your defense, when last nights euro came out you were gung ho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Guidance spits out some QPF for your area. On order of .1 to .25". Oh..guidance..ok then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
amarshall Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Ok I'm done here..I'm jumping on to Matt Noyes weeniestream. We need positive vibes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Say hello to my little friend.... Matt Noyes @MattNoyesNECN 15m Gotta say, *early* indication is Sat PM storm lights up the classic Southern NewEng snowbelt - CT/Nrn RI/SE MA View details · Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Say hello to my little friend.... Matt Noyes @MattNoyesNECN 15m Gotta say, *early* indication is Sat PM storm lights up the classic Southern NewEng snowbelt - CT/Nrn RI/SE MA View details · 3-6" for me is my thinking right now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 heh, something better happen this weekend; otherwise, you guys are now up to 21 pages is going to look pretty funny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 In your defense, when last nights euro came out you were gung ho. Not quite gung-ho, but I definitely felt more confident than during the day. My expectations were and still are the same.Today was my drop dead day as far as making a move towards a more robust solution and that is waning at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Euro ensembles on my phone still look decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Not quite gung-ho, but I definitely felt more confident than during the day. My expectations were and still are the same.Today was my drop dead day as far as making a move towards a more robust solution and that is waning at this time. Based on what please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Oh..guidance..ok then What do you use to come up with your ideas? Is there something else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 What do you use to come up with your ideas? Is there something else? magic dust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 What do you use to come up with your ideas? Is there something else? Yes meteorology Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 A couple of issues here. 1. Referencing cold shots at 180 and 240 hours is silly, on any model, when they've proven to be unreliable beyond five days. Go ahead and follow the long range Euro (I mean, it did just take away a major snowstorm inside of 3 days, but I digress). I'll stick with persistence, it has the hot hand after all, no pun intended. Ride it until it stops working. If there's a way for cold to under-perform, it will find a way. 2. Who has or will have any meaningful snow cover by next week if they don't get a refresher this weekend? Maybe in the woods or higher elevations of the far, far interior. There is none here. There is none further up the coast. There is none south of here. Most of the metro areas of SNE have none or won't by the time next week rolls around. 3. Upper-20s/low-30s for highs in January is just below climo for most of SNE. Even at SNE's torch spot, BDL, the normals drop off to something like 18/34 in the coldest time of year which we are entering, so that's fairly unimpressive for cold if it does indeed materialize. The NWS forecast down here, which is the same as yours also has "increasing confidence in a moderate to significant snow storm for Saturday" so take that forecast for what it's worth. 1) I'm not saying the 850s are going to verify verbatim, but the GFS, GEFS, and ECM all show below average temperatures for the East Coast in the next ten days. There's a nice cold shot behind the Saturday storm with 850s around -8C and then a large cold shot later in the week as a Canadian high builds in and the PV starts to redevelop near Hudson Bay. And I don't really think the cold has been underperforming....November was -4F here with several days of -15F departures. As for December, everyone said we'd start a colder pattern just before Christmas, and that's been the case. I've been mid 30s to low 40s basically every day this week. My high was 38.6F today, 35.5F yesterday, 42.3F on Christmas, 40.0F on Christmas Eve. Not cold temperatures but about average, which is part of the step-down process. 2) I still have 1-2" snow cover right now, and we're looking at a 2-4" event Saturday trending to 3-6" in eastern Mass, eastern CT/RI as well. That will ensure a light snow cover for the next week. Every model shows a refresher this weekend. Even the 12z ECM with its paltry .21" QPF here is still probably 3" considering ratios. 3) NWS has highs in the upper 20s here with lows in the mid teens next week. That's well below average. Models support that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Based on what please? Without access to computers and model guidance, what would you base your ideas/thoughts on? Lick of the finger in the wind? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I am just saying that with every storm so far caution flags have been thrown saying don't lock this in yet. But it seems with this people are saying it won't be big. I don't know, I don't have much MET knowledge, but I think we will see this be a decent hit for many folks...probably just a weenie forecast... It is generally best to start conservatively and work up from there. This past storm is one of the best examples I have seen in a long time. There wasn't much evidence for feet and feet of snow falling, especially outside of the ski areas, yet people were still latching onto that fantasy and holding on for dear life. As for 12/30, looks decent for SNE but largely a miss for us. At least, in a stormstorm context. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I'd rather a skirt or whiff, than a CT/se MA special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 SREFs look to tick NW...certainly more amped thru SAT at 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 SREFs look to tick NW...certainly more amped thru SAT at 06z Impossible... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 It is generally best to start conservatively and work up from there. This past storm is one of the best examples I have seen in a long time. There wasn't much evidence for feet and feet of snow falling, especially outside of the ski areas, yet people were still latching onto that fantasy and holding on for dear life. As for 12/30, looks decent for SNE but largely a miss for us. At least, in a stormstorm context. Ehhh ... every piece of guidance was spitting out 1.75+ qpf from dendrite up to the int'l border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 F ckn place is nuts...just nuts. Every creaking thread turns into a pity party or shouting match. I contribute to the former. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Yesterday and today is a Tooterville special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 No major changes from the 15z SREF. Similar to 9z. Some members show a moderate hit, while others just miss the area. The mean brings light snowfall to the entire area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Nice to see SREFS ramping up a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I think I may see a few flakes before midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 It is generally best to start conservatively and work up from there. This past storm is one of the best examples I have seen in a long time. There wasn't much evidence for feet and feet of snow falling, especially outside of the ski areas, yet people were still latching onto that fantasy and holding on for dear life. As for 12/30, looks decent for SNE but largely a miss for us. At least, in a stormstorm context. Yup 1st call for here is Cirrus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Euro Ensemble mean pretty close to op run. Should be good for a couple inches I'd think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 No major changes from the 15z SREF. Similar to 9z. Some members show a moderate hit, while others just miss the area. The mean brings light snowfall to the entire area.n nice, looked a little better to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 eh, SREFs are still pretty "meh"....0.3" to BOS, 0.5" to canal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Yup 1st call for here is Cirrus Radar says you're ripping right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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