Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Highly unlikely anyone will be other than above normal for this period. It will just feel below Ike yesterday on the normal days. Most guidance keeps it this way till just after 1/1. How the took are you -1 12/25-26? Is your climo dc? lol look at the f6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 You promise? god willing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 the pattern changed...but it's still garbage in terms of sensible winter weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 EURO ens will probably look like the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Correct. Even the cold that was modelled wasn't anything crazy cold. Highs in the 20s and lows in the teens? Even if it were 25/10 type cold which would feel downright frigid at this point, that would still only be about a -10 day at BDL, perhaps not even. With three weeks left 'til climo starts going the other way, for those who like it cold, time is running out. This is a joke.....Euro shows -20C 850s down here next week around 180 hours. It brings another brutal cold shot at 240 hours as well. Also, New Year's Day is not mild...not sure what people are talking about. 850s are -8C over most of New England....temperatures are probably in the upper 20s to low 30s, especially with snowcover. Even down here, NWS has a high of 27F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Some of these posts are unreal you guys that haven't had snow just aren't the same . How can you rule out a nice snowfall this weekend, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Jerry needs to take a dog walk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 27, 2012 Author Share Posted December 27, 2012 can i be a mod? Existing mods need help. Nothing stays on topic. I vote for more moderators Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 They've been Anal-logs lately. lol I was afraid the Euro was going to fold, oh well maybe a dusting to an inch which I will gladly take Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 This week had a storm, but not cold. Anal-logs. But I agree, it will get chilly. It's definitely been getting colder....I've had highs in the mid-upper 30s pretty much every day this past week, whereas the week before it was in the 50s. Averages here are in the low 40s so I've been slightly below normal for maxima and slightly above normal for minima. Saying the cold hasn't come when I've seen two snows on the coastal plain in the last week with a 3rd coming is a bit disingenuous. It's felt like winter with temps in the 30s, snow, sleet, and freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Some of these posts are unreal you guys that haven't had snow just aren't the same . How can you rule out a nice snowfall this weekend, There's a difference between warning criteria and a 'nice snowfall'. I think many folks see snow, just not a SECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 12/25-26 has averaged -0.5 to +1.5 depending on station, so it's possible someone averaged -1 over the last two days. Jerrys own backyard was below, DC climo dig FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 There's a difference between warning criteria and a 'nice snowfall'. I think many folks see snow, just not a SECS. I'm getting mocked because I think a 3-6 inch or 4-8 inch snowfall is very possible. I have a moderator telling me I'm off my rocker..and nothing supports accumulating snow inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 lol I was afraid the Euro was going to fold, oh well maybe a dusting to an inch which I will gladly take You get close to .25" QPF on 12z Euro as well as about .3" on 12z UKIE and GGEM. With high ratios in a cold airmass, it's a bit more than dusting to an inch. You probably average 2-4" on today's guidance, maybe a tick more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 congrats kevin Matt Noyes @MattNoyesNECN 80% chc greater than inch all the way 2 Canadian border Sat night, so that gives u idea I'm not thinking small 4 Southern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I'm getting mocked because I think a 3-6 inch or 4-8 inch snowfall is very possible. I have a moderator telling me I'm off my rocker..and nothing supports accumulating snow inland. 1-3" would be a better call for your back yard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Are you sure about 2/28? http://boston.cbslocal.com/2011/02/28/no-more-snow-it%E2%80%99s-possible/ It validate my memory. I stated I thought 5-6 and the link says 5.3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 1-3" would be a better call for your back yard. Can you explain your rationale? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 congrats kevin Matt Noyes @MattNoyesNECN 80% chc greater than inch all the way 2 Canadian border Sat night, so that gives u idea I'm not thinking small 4 Southern Can't be right...Bob said it won't happen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Looking forward to my third accumulating snow in a week. Not sure about how much but all signs pointing to accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Noyes has been hitting this thing hard in SNE. He's usually not out to lunch with these things. One of the best IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Can't be right...Bob said it won't happen... Euro and some other models have light snow (1-2") just about everywhere due to the lift from the larger broad trough...but the real snow is confined to SE areas where the coastal intensifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Jerry needs to take a dog walk I'm not terribly upset at all. Just challenging what I don't agree with. Believe me, if I had the control we'd all get 3 feet every storm until I died a a blissful death under mounds of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Looking forward to my third accumulating snow in a week. Not sure about how much but all signs pointing to accumulations. You've done we'll. outside of my coating 12/25, nada here really since 12/1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Can you explain your rationale? Guidance spits out some QPF for your area. On order of .1 to .25". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Euro and some other models have light snow (1-2") just about everywhere due to the lift from the larger broad trough...but the real snow is confined to SE areas where the coastal intensifies. I am just saying that with every storm so far caution flags have been thrown saying don't lock this in yet. But it seems with this people are saying it won't be big. I don't know, I don't have much MET knowledge, but I think we will see this be a decent hit for many folks...probably just a weenie forecast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I am just saying that with every storm so far caution flags have been thrown saying don't lock this in yet. But it seems with this people are saying it won't be big. I don't know, I don't have much MET knowledge, but I think we will see this be a decent hit for many folks...probably just a weenie forecast... probably... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Srefs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 If you're expecting anything more than a little -sn out this system, you're going to be severely disappointed. You're expectations should be even less than Kevin's in CT. I'm not a weenie like you and Kevin. I'm a realist Can't be right...Bob said it won't happen... Just so you can re-read what I wrote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 This is a joke.....Euro shows -20C 850s down here next week around 180 hours. It brings another brutal cold shot at 240 hours as well. Also, New Year's Day is not mild...not sure what people are talking about. 850s are -8C over most of New England....temperatures are probably in the upper 20s to low 30s, especially with snowcover. Even down here, NWS has a high of 27F. A couple of issues here. 1. Referencing cold shots at 180 and 240 hours is silly, on any model, when they've proven to be unreliable beyond five days. Go ahead and follow the long range Euro (I mean, it did just take away a major snowstorm inside of 3 days, but I digress). I'll stick with persistence, it has the hot hand after all, no pun intended. Ride it until it stops working. If there's a way for cold to under-perform, it will find a way. 2. Who has or will have any meaningful snow cover by next week if they don't get a refresher this weekend? Maybe in the woods or higher elevations of the far, far interior. There is none here. There is none further up the coast. There is none south of here. Most of the metro areas of SNE have none or won't by the time next week rolls around. 3. Upper-20s/low-30s for highs in January is just below climo for most of SNE. Even at SNE's torch spot, BDL, the normals drop off to something like 18/34 in the coldest time of year which we are entering, so that's fairly unimpressive for cold if it does indeed materialize. The NWS forecast down here, which is the same as yours also has "increasing confidence in a moderate to significant snow storm for Saturday" so take that forecast for what it's worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.