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12/30 Coastal - Snowing Our Way Into NYE


Clinch Leatherwood

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Correct. Even the cold that was modelled wasn't anything crazy cold. Highs in the 20s and lows in the teens? Even if it were 25/10 type cold which would feel downright frigid at this point, that would still only be about a -10 day at BDL, perhaps not even. With three weeks left 'til climo starts going the other way, for those who like it cold, time is running out.

This is a joke.....Euro shows -20C 850s down here next week around 180 hours. It brings another brutal cold shot at 240 hours as well.

Also, New Year's Day is not mild...not sure what people are talking about. 850s are -8C over most of New England....temperatures are probably in the upper 20s to low 30s, especially with snowcover. Even down here, NWS has a high of 27F.

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This week had a storm, but not cold. Anal-logs.

But I agree, it will get chilly.

It's definitely been getting colder....I've had highs in the mid-upper 30s pretty much every day this past week, whereas the week before it was in the 50s. Averages here are in the low 40s so I've been slightly below normal for maxima and slightly above normal for minima. Saying the cold hasn't come when I've seen two snows on the coastal plain in the last week with a 3rd coming is a bit disingenuous. It's felt like winter with temps in the 30s, snow, sleet, and freezing rain.

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lol

I was afraid the Euro was going to fold, oh well maybe a dusting to an inch which I will gladly take

You get close to .25" QPF on 12z Euro as well as about .3" on 12z UKIE and GGEM. With high ratios in a cold airmass, it's a bit more than dusting to an inch. You probably average 2-4" on today's guidance, maybe a tick more.

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Euro and some other models have light snow (1-2") just about everywhere due to the lift from the larger broad trough...but the real snow is confined to SE areas where the coastal intensifies.

I am just saying that with every storm so far caution flags have been thrown saying don't lock this in yet. But it seems with this people are saying it won't be big. I don't know, I don't have much MET knowledge, but I think we will see this be a decent hit for many folks...probably just a weenie forecast...

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I am just saying that with every storm so far caution flags have been thrown saying don't lock this in yet. But it seems with this people are saying it won't be big. I don't know, I don't have much MET knowledge, but I think we will see this be a decent hit for many folks...probably just a weenie forecast...

probably...

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If you're expecting anything more than a little -sn out this system, you're going to be severely disappointed. You're expectations should be even less than Kevin's in CT.

I'm not a weenie like you and Kevin. I'm a realist

Can't be right...Bob said it won't happen...

Just so you can re-read what I wrote.

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This is a joke.....Euro shows -20C 850s down here next week around 180 hours. It brings another brutal cold shot at 240 hours as well.

Also, New Year's Day is not mild...not sure what people are talking about. 850s are -8C over most of New England....temperatures are probably in the upper 20s to low 30s, especially with snowcover. Even down here, NWS has a high of 27F.

A couple of issues here.

1. Referencing cold shots at 180 and 240 hours is silly, on any model, when they've proven to be unreliable beyond five days. Go ahead and follow the long range Euro (I mean, it did just take away a major snowstorm inside of 3 days, but I digress). I'll stick with persistence, it has the hot hand after all, no pun intended. Ride it until it stops working. If there's a way for cold to under-perform, it will find a way.

2. Who has or will have any meaningful snow cover by next week if they don't get a refresher this weekend? Maybe in the woods or higher elevations of the far, far interior. There is none here. There is none further up the coast. There is none south of here. Most of the metro areas of SNE have none or won't by the time next week rolls around.

3. Upper-20s/low-30s for highs in January is just below climo for most of SNE. Even at SNE's torch spot, BDL, the normals drop off to something like 18/34 in the coldest time of year which we are entering, so that's fairly unimpressive for cold if it does indeed materialize. The NWS forecast down here, which is the same as yours also has "increasing confidence in a moderate to significant snow storm for Saturday" so take that forecast for what it's worth.

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