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12/30 Coastal - Snowing Our Way Into NYE


Clinch Leatherwood

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well....one thing is for certain, the current system did nothing more than pique folks' desires. this was such a pedestrian event guys. 5" of glop here; though someone somewhere probably claimed a foot but 10 years from now you won't remember this thing. but it sure stoked everyone's appetite! nice appetizer. but like all apps they leave you feeling unfulfilled and ready for the real meal. ha, otherwise, we would not have dumped 12 new pages into a thread in just 3 hours or whatever it has been, over what could ultimately be just an ephemeral presence in the runs - or not, we'll see. i haven't even analyzed this next thing.

the next 10 day's worth of PNA offer hope that at any given modeling time we can have something to track. so if this next thing whiffs, we probably won't have to wait too long to set sights on the next.

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Sorry..just got home from lunch with my daughters.

Based on everything I've seen today I feel even more confident we see a 3-6 or more type snowfall.

The trough is sharper, Many of the ensembles are solid hits..and the pattern argues for a coastal storm as we drill in the arctic cold. It needs a mechanism to come down. I think the biggest thing we saw today was a jump NW of the Gefs/Gfs and Rgem..Ukie was a WSW for all of SNE.

All of that leads me to believe the NW shif is real and that accumulating snow gets well back into NY state

Ukie is a northern outlier compared to all other guidance. 12z GGEM/GFS/Euro/Nogaps are all very similar at this point.

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Sorry..just got home from lunch with my daughters.

Based on everything I've seen today I feel even more confident we see a 3-6 or more type snowfall.

The trough is sharper, Many of the ensembles are solid hits..and the pattern argues for a coastal storm as we drill in the arctic cold. It needs a mechanism to come down. I think the biggest thing we saw today was a jump NW of the Gefs/Gfs and Rgem..Ukie was a WSW for all of SNE.

All of that leads me to believe the NW shif is real and that accumulating snow gets well back into NY state

The biggest thing we saw today was a cave by the EURO from a HECS to a swipe.

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Sorry..just got home from lunch with my daughters.

Based on everything I've seen today I feel even more confident we see a 3-6 or more type snowfall.

The trough is sharper, Many of the ensembles are solid hits..and the pattern argues for a coastal storm as we drill in the arctic cold. It needs a mechanism to come down. I think the biggest thing we saw today was a jump NW of the Gefs/Gfs and Rgem..Ukie was a WSW for all of SNE.

All of that leads me to believe the NW shif is real and that accumulating snow gets well back into NY state

lol. i don't know why i bite on this stuff...but no.

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I would leave it at chance of snow at this point with light accumulations possible for all of Connecticut. Tonight after the 00z runs you can tweak that back to chance of snow showers for inland areas and put an accumulation for SE coastal areas, or ramp up if models show a definitive shift the other way. Why one wouldn't hedge their forecast at 48-60 hrs out is beyond me.

I agree.

Sorry..just got home from lunch with my daughters.

Based on everything I've seen today I feel even more confident we see a 3-6 or more type snowfall.

The trough is sharper, Many of the ensembles are solid hits..and the pattern argues for a coastal storm as we drill in the arctic cold. It needs a mechanism to come down. I think the biggest thing we saw today was a jump NW of the Gefs/Gfs and Rgem..Ukie was a WSW for all of SNE.

All of that leads me to believe the NW shif is real and that accumulating snow gets well back into NY state

LOL. Well, I'll say this. I hope you're right.

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Sorry..just got home from lunch with my daughters.

Based on everything I've seen today I feel even more confident we see a 3-6 or more type snowfall.

The trough is sharper, Many of the ensembles are solid hits..and the pattern argues for a coastal storm as we drill in the arctic cold. It needs a mechanism to come down.I think the biggest thing we saw today was a jump NW of the Gefs/Gfs and Rgem..Ukie was a WSW for all of SNE.

All of that leads me to believe the NW shif is real and that accumulating snow gets well back into NY state

Which is why this system doesn't bring it. Delayed.

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cippy cup?

Red Solo cup

Best lines of the day go to Kev once again

snapback.pngCT Blizz, on 27 December 2012 - 05:10 AM, said:

Congrats to all who said I'd go above 32..It's 33.5

Hopefully we can get temps to settle back down as this mess pulls east

snapback.pngCT Blizz, on 27 December 2012 - 12:45 PM, said:

I escaped the above freezing temps and rain with 4 inches OTG. This stuff will freeze into concrete later today and tonight. Great base for the snow banks. Then we add more over the weekend. Temp continues to drop as snow showers move in

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I'm pretty sure PVD is less screwed. What was the October 2011 snowmageddon total?

You're looking at a year and half to diagnosis this? the whole northeast has been basically screwed for this period. As much as this storm was nice, I'm still more than a foot below normal on the year..and I was 5 ft below normal last year.

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Ukie is a northern outlier compared to all other guidance. 12z GGEM/GFS/Euro/Nogaps are all very similar at this point.

I don't care what "guidance" has at this point. It's just that ....guidance. Maybe I'm wrong..Maybe I'm not. For folks to be ruling out a nice hit from this today seems a bit silly..but to each their own

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People just need to temper expectations a bit. Stop acting like this is a 6-12" or nothing deal. The GFS ensemble means and SREFs (while maybe a tad out of their 48hour wheelhouse) both show a solid 2-4" type event for most of SE SNE...including most of CT. Canadian generally agrees and the Euro is a bit weaker but just did one heck of a waffle so should probably still be taken with a grain of salt. 2-4" is a perfectly reasonable forecast south of the pike right now. While the pattern doesn't support a whole lot more amplification...just a small shift in track and we may be looking at a little more than that. 3-6" is an aggressive forecast right now...but the KURO has been know to overdo things a bit...but it's not completely out of the question just yet. Give it until the 0z runs.

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