SnowGoose69 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 The GFS has done just fine at times. The upgrades make it better. Inside Day 5 if its not overly different than the other models it usually is good, but it seems more often than not if its got something drastically different rarely if ever is it correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 The GFS has done just fine at times. The upgrades make it better. Yes. I still think the euro edges it in the long range but at this range it may be close. I should look at verification scores of late... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 12z Euro snow maps on Wunderground show very little N & W of coastal CT/RI & SE MA. Just sayin'. Perhaps I'm missing the snow maps so can you please tell me how to locate those maps. Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Those Euro snow maps are depressing. i just want a 5-6 inch snow storm in Seekonk/PVD. how long has it been? nearly 2 years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 12z GFS is snow to rain to snow for coastal SE Mass from PYM down through the Cape... Really just a general 1-3 for much of E Mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Yes. I still think the euro edges it in the long range but at this range it may be close. I should look at verification scores of late... let me remind you that the Euro had today's system over ORD last week, and the GFS never waved taken to the wood shed in the extended THAT time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Seems like a very safe bet. If I had to pick snow amounts here I'd do 2.5". As Jerry keeps telling us though plenty of time. Let's not forget how today turned out in some areas. Minor shifts made a big difference. This being a more classic track for SE areas there's the potential for OE and other banding NW of the low. time will tell. I'm not sold either way at this point. Yeah, it should be fun to watch at least. I don't have to worry about the R/S line for once which I kind of like. Like Jerry said, slight changes could have big impacts on sensible weather. Well you have to laugh at talk of snowshowers and nothing more ? You do? What model are you using? The Euro, GFS, NAM, SREFs, GGEM all have less then 2" for you. What does the 12z KURO have? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 12z Euro snow maps on Wunderground show very little N & W of coastal CT/RI & SE MA. Just sayin'. They have nothing in the cape, is that due to BL issues? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Perhaps I'm missing the snow maps so can you please tell me how to locate those maps. Thank you You'll need to change the model parameters on the right. http://www.wundergro...i=0&ls=0&rad2=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I don't get what all the panicking is all about. We will all be good - the Euro can wobble a little bit. Ultimately, the trend this winter has been for storms to come more NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 They have nothing in the cape, is that do to BL issues? For sure there are BL issues in far SE Mass and the Cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Yeah, it should be fun to watch at least. I don't have to worry about the R/S line for once which I kind of like. Like Jerry said, slight changes could have big impacts on sensible weather. ? You do? What model are you using? The Euro, GFS, NAM, SREFs, GGEM all have less then 2" for you. What does the 12z KURO have? A solid T-1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 They have nothing in the cape, is that do to BL issues? If precip does not come down hard enough, there will definitely be BL issues. Temps will be in the mid to upper 30s for most of the SE MA area so it will be difficult to accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I don't get what all the panicking is all about. We will all be good - the Euro can wobble a little bit. Ultimately, the trend this winter has been for storms to come more NW. haha...you are snowNH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 let me remind you that the Euro had today's system over ORD last week, and the GFS never waved taken to the wood shed in the extended THAT time! Do you have a link to scores vs a one time example? I'm talking long term ensembles btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJHUB Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 If precip does not come down hard enough, there will definitely be BL issues. Temps will be in the mid to upper 30s for most of the SE MA area so it will be difficult to accumulate. What was the last 5+ inch storm for our area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 If precip does not come down hard enough, there will definitely be BL issues. Temps will be in the mid to upper 30s for most of the SE MA area so it will be difficult to accumulate. yeah if it doesn't go to town the way the 00z euro did, it's going to be a rain to snow deal with just a couple/few inches out here overnight.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I stand by my 2-4" call still at this time for interior SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 haha...you are snowNH. the storm today trended a bit SE in the last 36 hours if you ask me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 what we have now is nothing more than average really Correct. Even the cold that was modelled wasn't anything crazy cold. Highs in the 20s and lows in the teens? Even if it were 25/10 type cold which would feel downright frigid at this point, that would still only be about a -10 day at BDL, perhaps not even. With three weeks left 'til climo starts going the other way, for those who like it cold, time is running out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Do you have a link to scores vs a one time example? I'm talking long term ensembles btw. The Euro beats the GFS in anomaly correlation scores just about every month. It's not by a huge margin...but it's consistent. The UK also beats the GFS at 500. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Do you have a link to scores vs a one time example? I'm talking long term ensembles btw. I know - just sayin' The Euro was a bit erratic with this event - whether that is more so than usual, yeah - go check. But good luck getting there; there's web-controller issues at NCEP right now. i hope we don't have to deal with crap all week because it's the holidays and they have a skeleton crew or something stupid like that - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Still waiting to hear from Kevin why calling for snow showers for the interior is a bad call? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 What was the last 5+ inch storm for our area? Jan 19-20th this year, interior SE MA saw 5". http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/displayEvent.php?event=Jan_19-20_2012&element=snow Jan 21st saw a sizable event for the South Coast http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/displayEvent.php?event=Jan_21_2012&element=snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Still waiting to hear from Kevin why calling for snow showers for the interior is a bad call? I would leave it at chance of snow at this point with light accumulations possible for all of Connecticut. Tonight after the 00z runs you can tweak that back to chance of snow showers for inland areas and put an accumulation for SE coastal areas, or ramp up if models show a definitive shift the other way. Why one wouldn't hedge their forecast at 48-60 hrs out is beyond me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Jan 19-20th this year, interior SE MA saw 5". http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/displayEvent.php?event=Jan_19-20_2012&element=snow Jan 21st saw a sizable event for the South Coast http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/displayEvent.php?event=Jan_21_2012&element=snow Which is why Boston should be proclaimed the screw zone extraordinaire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 haha...you are snowNH. No LOL, but I do remember him. He was out of Manch though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Still waiting to hear from Kevin why calling for snow showers for the interior is a bad call? Sorry..just got home from lunch with my daughters. Based on everything I've seen today I feel even more confident we see a 3-6 or more type snowfall. The trough is sharper, Many of the ensembles are solid hits..and the pattern argues for a coastal storm as we drill in the arctic cold. It needs a mechanism to come down. I think the biggest thing we saw today was a jump NW of the Gefs/Gfs and Rgem..Ukie was a WSW for all of SNE. All of that leads me to believe the NW shif is real and that accumulating snow gets well back into NY state Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 No LOL, but I do remember him. He was out of Manch though. OT brut what did you end up with or have at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 If this keeps up, might as well root for Morch. Nothing worse than cold rain, kid crying, taking care of wife, and no sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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