ORH_wxman Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Ukie looks like a warning criteria event for many...it absolutely destroys the cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 27, 2012 Author Share Posted December 27, 2012 Can someone post the link to the GGEM on that site that shows it early? Thanks. The GGEM posted to me looks fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Even though the NAM is crap...I'm more comfortable in seeing it come a bit north and not be a complete miss. I will remain skeptical of the EC unless something else climbs aboard for a warning criteria event. But given how progressive the flow is, it's hard to believe one off run of the EC showing a big hit. Compromise right now suggests a nice advisory event for most, which I would gladly take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 12z GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Pretty good concensus so far today of a nice warning type snow for all of SNE from GEFS/GGEM/Ukie...let's see what Euro does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Euro will be similar to last night but cut back significantly on qpf imho. iow...track will be similar but it won't be the bomb. I most likely will depict 6-12 for me vs 1-2 feet of last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 GEM is a nice hit for SNE. As is the ukie. Probably 6" on average along the coast. American guidance will play catch up, to some extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I'd like to see CMC at 72 hours....that will determine whether it's pedestrian warning vs jerkoff material. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I think the Cape has serious potential to get mauled here. The northern vort will be a good thing for the rest of SNE as it should produce a solid advisory or even low end warning snow, but when that southern vort catches up, it could nuke the Cape with a CCB....the Euro did it quick enough to hammer most of E MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I'd like to see CMC at 72 hours....that will determine whether it's pedestrian warning vs jerkoff material. Its pedestrian. Ukie was better. But CMC is still prob a 3-6 deal...maybe a tad more right on the eastern edges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Euro will be similar to last night but cut back significantly on qpf imho. iow...track will be similar but it won't be the bomb. I most likely will depict 6-12 for me vs 1-2 feet of last night. Which we will gladly take... especially for a Saturday night into Sunday storm. Couldn't really ask for better, personally. Hell, I'd like 3-6 even. Just give me a nice snowy night so I can throw back whiskey and go for a stroll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I will say this...we have seen SW flow type events in the past be modeled as 1-4" as close as 48-60 hours out before...and have them turn into solid 6-10" events just a couple days out. Of course, you could argue this is not as ideal of a setup as some of those events...but still...probably too early to sleep on that potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 CMC takes it a few degrees outside the bm as a wound up system. We need it to come 75 miles closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 LOL..that's not a scrape Hello, It is here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 for you, def a scrape, but that gets mod snow to MA/NH border, so not terribly far from u Yes it is and that is what i was referring to seeing i posted it, At least the trend has been NW some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Yes it is and that is what i was referring to seeing i posted it, At least the trend has been NW some Please try to keep in mind it is important to employ a my-backyard-centric narrative when posting, and -- for reference -- my backyard is Brookline, MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Well it's safe to say that GFS/CMC/NAM came closer. UKMET was about the same but perhaps less intense? Wish we could see 60 to 72. vs one and jump to the other. So the trend is still ok pending the boss who appears to be showing signs of his age lately... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 GEFS look a lot better than the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 27, 2012 Author Share Posted December 27, 2012 GEFS are fine actually shifted NW overall by quite a bit vs the 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Seems like a convergence towards a SE MA CC moderate hit with light snow over much of the rest of SNE a chunk of CNE and perhaps a scrape to ENNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Progrerssive pattern. I doubt snow last for more than 5 hrs. Bos will need some pretty good rates to make 18". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Please try to keep in mind it is important to employ a my-backyard-centric narrative when posting, and -- for reference -- my backyard is Brookline, MA. lol, I will heap you in with Jerry.............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 lol, I will heap you in with Jerry.............. And at least once we bumped into each other in Coolidge Corner..lol Fugly day down here today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Yeah, 12z GEFS was NW of the op, So there is still a trend NW there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 GGem is tons better than last night, great trends today for a nice snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 GGem is tons better than last night, great trends today for a nice snowstorm i think last night's was better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 And at least once we bumped into each other in Coolidge Corner..lol Fugly day down here today. I will never forget being introduced to your daughter simply as "Zeus." No complaints, honestly. And what, you don't like mid 40's and wind-driven rain in late December? Tsk tsk. Let's just keep our fingers crossed that the Euro doesn't completely retract the bold statement it made at 00z. I, like many, do not expect anything close to consistency with such an amplified solution seeing as few of the other models have left room for it and it's really a standalone run, but I'd just like it to be a hit and not a whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 27, 2012 Author Share Posted December 27, 2012 Progrerssive pattern. I doubt snow last for more than 5 hrs. Bos will need some pretty good rates to make 18". To me it looks like a potential, note potential, sharp gradient system that's flying through. The GEFS shifted NW with the the 1" line but actually pulled the .25/.5 a bit SE. That to me is generally not the best sign of a pending more expansive/NW scenario. If I had to do a forecast for down here just based on what's available so far it'd be .2 or .3" QPF confined kind of tight to SE MA/Plymouth SW. More over the Cape itself. Not much (less than .2" NW of there). The UK and CMC moved or support better the GFS type solution. The GEFS being more amped is of course a red flag, but I think the op Euro from last night needs to be discarded at this point, it was too extreme (for now). JMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 i think last night's was better. why? Last Night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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