ctsnowlover Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 out to 42h, nam is about 125 miles further north w/ the precip, now into OH with NCEP down, you have a link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 with NCEP down, you have a link? http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/12znam.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 with NCEP down, you have a link? ewall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 There is your genesis point sitting over Mexico. chimmichungas. chupacabra Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 out to 48h, looks like a nearly 200 mile n'erly shift on the NAM (from Maryland to southern upstate NY) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 while 12z NAM brings qpf further north, low track is still off NC ots... but NAM has been essentially useless outside of 48h this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 weak sauce but a step in the right direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Wonder if some places end up with blizzard watches tomorrow? They are pretty hard to verify, so probably not, but I guess you never know. Would probably be a similar configuration as the Boxing Day 2010 storm: coastal areas of SE CT through southern RI into SE Mass. Not sure any of those ended up verifying but I think a couple got pretty close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 at least the nam is not OTS anymore! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 while 12z NAM brings qpf further north, low track is still off NC ots... but NAM has been essentially useless outside of 48h this year Best to temper the excitement for this storm until tomorrow's 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Best to temper the excitement for this storm until tomorrow's 12Z. I think 12z run today should increase confidence, 12z tomorrow would be to iron out details! At least I hope.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I think 12z run today should increase confidence, 12z tomorrow would be to iron out details! At least I hope.. That's what I'm hoping too. We're about 54 hours away from the predicted start of the storm, so you'd hope by tomorrow morning's runs we'd have a pretty good idea. Wouldn't be surprised to see 4th period watches go up this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Hope is a strong word in my vocabulary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 They are pretty hard to verify, so probably not, but I guess you never know. Would probably be a similar configuration as the Boxing Day 2010 storm: coastal areas of SE CT through southern RI into SE Mass. Not sure any of those ended up verifying but I think a couple got pretty close. There's no question the Euro is a blizzard for Cape Cod and SE MA. But we don't know if it will be quite that extreme, obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 The Euro upper level configuration looks a bit weird to me. You have a larger broad upper level trough extending from Michigan to Maine and then the shortwave is a section of the trough deepening south of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlauderdal Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 There is your genesis point sitting over Mexico. chimmichungas. congrats to everyone on your winter weather..im making the trip to stowe,vt tomorrow from sofla so hoping this new system can keep trending NW..dont want to get greedy with this 12-20 stowe is getting but it would be nice if we can pull something out of this new system...looks good for you guys that screwed on todays system as a side note, if you showed that sat presentation to me during hurricane season it would be exciting but it(the cuba system) would need to get down to the surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 congrats to everyone on your winter weather..im making the trip to stowe,vt tomorrow from sofla so hoping this new system can keep trending NW..dont want to get greedy with this 12-20 stowe is getting but it would be nice if we can pull something out of this new system...looks good for you guys that screwed on todays system as a side note, if you showed that sat presentation to me during hurricane season it would be exciting but it(the cuba system) would need to get down to the surface Stowe is getting ripped and will upslope all night, you will not need anymore snow than what they got. Have a great time. Say hi to the Freak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Phil, what do you think? my gut feeling is the euro is a bit overdone only because it has a tendency to go bananas with stuff off the east coast now and then. given what just passed through here today, i'd think the deeper development happens a bit further north and east. but if it does it again at 12z, i'll buy it i think. there's also potential BL issues so i need something like the euro or ggem to get all/mostly frozen out of this i think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 my gut feeling is the euro is a bit overdone only because it has a tendency to go bananas with stuff off the east coast now and then. given what just passed through here today, i'd think the deeper development happens a bit further north and east. but if it does it again at 12z, i'll buy it i think. there's also potential BL issues so i need something like the euro or ggem to get all/mostly frozen out of this i think. Agreed. I'm hoping for a late bloomer that will still get me, but eh..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Cape Cod, MA won't have boundary layer issues, we might if the storm goes underneath us, but if stays on a northeast heading from NC then it can bring the wind trajectory more out of the northeast or north-northeast instead of this easterly crap we have been getting lately, this stuff stinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 The late blooming is definitely a concern, but will keep us on the Cape all snow. Colder scenario. We need the low to be around sub 980mb passing by us for cold air to be pulled down, but I would rather see a sub 970mb low at the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlauderdal Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Stowe is getting ripped and will upslope all night, you will not need anymore snow than what they got. Have a great time. Say hi to the Freak thanks, i have been over on the NNE thread and powderfreak is in stowe and is fairly confident the snow machine can keep rolling for awhile in this pattern..im flying into Manchester NH tomorrow night so it appears i will have a decent window to get in before this new system takes hold over the weekend hopefully it stays inside your benchmark..my benchmark in sofla is 20/60(hebert box) for a florida hit on tropical systems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 http://api.photoshop.com/v1.0/accounts/4b4fbff9c21049b4b5fa328ed195ecf5/assets/19aaefe9dd71451ba99484416c10d419/renditions/1024.jpg?md=1356622124000 Track matters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 http://api.photoshop...d=1356622124000 Track matters thanks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted December 27, 2012 Author Share Posted December 27, 2012 Best to temper the excitement for this storm until tomorrow's 12Z. If the euro is still onboard at 12z today I think it's a go. Edit: my expectation is for a few inches. I don't take the blizzard talk seriously yet. A mashup of all the models is a few inches. If that changes at 12z (GGEM gfs euro) largely agree then great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 thanks? Lol. But it all seriousness...big big signal on the euro ensembles. Didn't expect that tbh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Coming in slightly more amplified than 06z at 63h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 gfs is just a little light rain out here. maybe a couple/few inches of snow for some folks just inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 gfs is just a little light rain out here. maybe a couple/few inches of snow for some folks just inland. Yeah, definitely not as amped as the Euro at this juncture. Looks like mostly a S & E of I-95 event, verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Pretty close to the nam, I would say a general 1-3 down this way into interior se mass for now, which is perfectly fine to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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