wxsniss Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Everyone woke up for this run...lol I broke off from the end of Shutter Island to check this run lol So refreshing to follow this kind of signal rather than the scrapings tossed at us since 2010!! Pattern at h5 does have some resemblance to Jan 05 (old ETA I posted above) with Baja low, ridge over Rockies/Dakotas that Will pointed out... obviously Jan 05 was a clipper that got captured and lingered... this looks like a classic Miller A, bombs out, quick blizzard for southeast MA as depicted tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Once again, a couple nice ensemble members... We're in an excellent spot at this timeframe, with most members further southeast p009: p008 destroys CT/RI/SEMA: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Ensembles look like a go, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 It would be nice to get the GFS on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 This is why you stay the course. A nice winter storm warning storm for all of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 SATURDAY... THIS IS WHERE THE DRAMA BUILDS AS THE NEW 00Z ECMWF GOES BONKERS WITH EXPLOSIVE CYCLONGENESIS SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND. AT 06Z SUN THE ECMWF AS A 972 LOW OVER THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK AND FURTHER BOMBING TO ABOUT 959 MB JUST SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA 18Z SUN! THIS RAPID DEEPENING GENERATES QPF OFF THE CHARTS WITH STORM TOTAL OF 2+ /LIQUID/ OVER CAPE COD! OBVIOUSLY WE DON/T WANT TO CHASE A SINGLE DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUN AT THIS TIME RANGE /STILL 60+ HRS OUT/...BUT EVEN THE 00Z ENSEMBLES GEFS & ECENS HAVE TRENDED STRONGER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST. ALTHOUGH NOT NEARLY THE MAGNITUDE OF THE ECMWF. UKMET ALSO LENDS SOME SUPPORT TO THE STRONGER EC. HOWEVER BIG BUST POTENTIAL HERE AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY MAY NOT PHASE UNTIL EAST OF OUR LONGITUDE...THUS TOO LITTLE TOO LATE IS ALSO A PLAUSIBLE OUTCOME. HOWEVER GIVEN ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED MORE ROBUST WILL LEAN PARTIALLY TOWARD THE STRONGER ECMWF AND AWAY FROM THE FLATTER/OPEN WAVE SOLUTION OF THE GFS. DON/T WANT TO GO 100 PERCENT EURO FOR TWO REASONS...1) TIME RANGE OF EVENT AND 2) WHILE ENSEMBLES HAVE TRENDED STRONGER THE SPREAD REMAINS LARGE. SO FOR NOW WE WILL TREND TOWARD THE ECMWF WITH LIKELY AND CATEGORICAL POPS LATE SAT INTO EARLY SUN ALONG WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. GREATEST RISK FOR HEAVY SNOW APPEARS ACROSS EASTERN MA AND RI. AIRMASS COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW BUT COULD MIX WITH RAIN OVER CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS PENDING THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW AND ITS INTENSITY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Congrats Scott, Jerry, and Phil--this one looks to be yours (along with Jeff and Eric again?). Great trends. Can't trend enough to be a big player for me, I don't think, but I really like how it's shaping up for you guys. Get excited! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Congrats Scott, Jerry, and Phil--this one looks to be yours (along with Jeff and Eric again?). Great trends. Can't trend enough to be a big player for me, I don't think, but I really like how it's shaping up for you guys. Get excited! There will be plenty of snow for everyone with this one. Eastern folks may be the winners..but you'll get some nice snows out of this too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Ensembles look like a go, too. Even for down here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I'd piss on a sparkplug for that to verify wealth for everybody .I love the energy in the chase but once it's over i'm looking for another fix sick bastards. we buy a pet knowing eventually it's a tragedy and try to explain to people but i stopped along time what we do here. Fishing over forty years ma nature really tryed to kill me 2-3 times fascinating especially summer season but snow is my fix see ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Perhaps we ought to wait another 24-36 hours before jumping on any model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I see potential for my long awaited Miller B East...but man, just can't get into it. Burned too often, and the latest installment included me trudging through 1.5" of pure slush to get to work this morning. Heinous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 BOX doesn't even give the storm a mention for GC's HWO. Wagon's east, folks. Enjoy. HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 701 AM EST THU DEC 27 2012 MAZ002>004-008-010-026-NHZ011-012-015-281215- WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA- WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA- CHESHIRE NH-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH- WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH- 701 AM EST THU DEC 27 2012 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. WINTER STORM WARNING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 If I have to watch the cap eand se MA celebrate now, I'm going to absolutely take a break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Still time for this to tick a little more NW to slide just SE of Ack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 If I have to watch the cap eand se MA celebrate now, I'm going to absolutely take a break. It's a hit for everyone. Not sure what you mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Still time for this to tick a little more NW to slide just SE of Ack Some if us are pulling for a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I see potential for my long awaited Miller B East...but man, just can't get into it. Burned too often, and the latest installment included me trudging through 1.5" of pure slush to get to work this morning. Heinous. its not a Miller B though, Euro Ens on board. inside 84, looking great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 It's a hit for everyone. Not sure what you mean? I mean if se MA gets 1', and I get like 4", then that's a fail. I've had one warning event in 2 years, while everyone around me int he region has had more....Boston area has just been taken to the shed. Missed in every direction, in every manner possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 This is why you stay the course. A nice winter storm warning storm for all of SNE. Except Nantucket. Lol. Early yet, but I think we see rain...again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 its not a Miller B though, Euro Ens on board. inside 84, looking great Right...I misspoke I guess I just mean an e ne special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 what did the euro ensembles have? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 It's a hit for everyone. Not sure what you mean? How quickly some of us are forgotten....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 what did the euro ensembles have? Sweeeeeet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I mean if se MA gets 1', and I get like 4", then that's a fail. I've had one warning event in 2 years, while everyone around me int he region has had more....Boston area has just been taken to the shed. Missed in every direction, in every manner possible. Our area and Chicago should be in the Craftsman Snow Bowl The first area to receive 6 inches or more in 1 storm is the winner!!....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 How quickly some of us are forgotten....... Why do you do this? As modelled it's 2-4 for you..with room to increase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 06z GFS indiv members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 I'll be an honest , I think this is a classic case of the GFS's cold bias(SE) coming into play. 12z runs today should be telling since we are now under 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 Why do you do this? As modelled it's 2-4 for you..with room to increase Two reasons: 1) I don't see it likely 2) When you can't even merit a mention in your HWO about it, the knowledgeable minds agree with #1 above Sure it may, but unless the NAM starts to show snow in Syracuse, I'm only going to watch for eduational purposes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 27, 2012 Share Posted December 27, 2012 That is an aimpressive signal on the EC ens....at only 72 hours out. Ordinarily, I'd be stoked, but I'm just snake bitten. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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